transcript

Speaker 1:
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Speaker 2:
[00:42] It's Friday, the 24th of April. Well, look at that. We've made it to the end of another week. Welcome to The Presidents Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, a new warning from the White House on Iranian regime mind-laying activity in the Strait of Hormuz. As officials say that clearing them could take far longer than expected. Later in the show, US brokered talks between Israel and Lebanon, finish up in Washington with a ceasefire extension, even as Hezbollah continues to trade fire with Israeli troops. Well, that's because Hezbollah isn't a party to the ceasefire. Plus, the US accuses China of running industrial scale operations to steal advanced American AI technology. In today's Back of the Brief, Republicans take a first step toward funding ICE on their own, hoping to end America's longest ever partial government shutdown. But first, today's PDB Spotlight. President Trump issued a blunt warning this week, saying the US Navy has been ordered to quote shoot and kill any Iranian boats caught laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. He added quote, Additionally, our minesweepers are clearing the Strait right now. I am hereby ordering that activity to continue, but at a tripled up level, end quote. That's his words, not mine, tripled up level. Now, that's classic Trump rhetoric. But it's also a pretty clear signal as to what the White House is focused on right now. And that's because mining the Strait has long been one of Iran's most potent and reliable threats. Tehran has spent decades building up a large stockpile of naval mines. But this isn't really about the numbers. It's about the disruption that even a few of them can cause. And we've talked about this before. You don't need to close the Strait by blocking it. You just need to make it feel unsafe. It's what we've called the one-shot rule. One incident, a damaged tanker, a near miss, even a credible report of mines, and everything changes. Insurance rates jump, shipping companies pull back, traffic slows. And just like that, one of the most critical arteries in the global economy is essentially shut down again, now as it currently is. Now Iran reportedly began laying mines back in March, and there are still mixed signals about the scale of that operation. Some US officials suggest Iran may have deployed only a relatively small number, maybe a few dozen. Others have described them as more of a nuisance than a decisive weapon. But that misses the bigger picture, because once mines are in the water, the real issue isn't just how many there are, it's how long it takes to prove that they're gone. In complicating matters even further, US officials now say that Iran may not even know where all those mines are. According to reporting, many were deployed quickly using small boats, and in some cases without precise tracking. Some may have drifted and others may have been logged, but not accurately. And that matters because it means that it's not just a problem for the US. Navy, it's a problem for Iran as well. Even if Tehran wanted to ease pressure and reopen the strait, it may not be able to do so quickly. Now, even under ideal conditions, minesweeping is slow, deliberate and highly technical work. Pentagon officials have warned lawmakers that fully clearing the strait could take up to six months. First, you obviously have to find the mines. That's no easy task if they've been deployed remotely or have drifted. Then you identify them, classify them and finally neutralize them, often using drones or control detonations. Now the US. Navy has the tools to do this, of course. MH-53 helicopters towing mine hunting sonar, unmanned surface vessels, dragging sensors across the seabed and underwater drones, like the kingfish and knifefish, that can scan for mines on their own. But even with all the tools, the process is still time-consuming. Clearing a waterway like this means scanning below the water's surface and along the seabed in narrow passes, sometimes just a hundred feet at a time, then going back to identify and neutralize each individual mine. And ultimately, the shipping and insurance industries have to be convinced that it is safe to resume normal activity, and that could prove almost as difficult as removing the actual mines. Coming up next, Israel and Lebanon conclude US brokerage talks in Washington amid continued Hezbollah attacks, and Washington warns that China is stealing US. AI on an industrial scale. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here with an important message for everyone who currently relies on or is preparing to sign up for Medicare. Now, if you've dealt with Medicare, you know just how complicated the whole system can be, right? Deciding which plan is right for you, well, it can be incredibly confusing, I mean, just knowing if you've signed up properly. Honestly, for millions of seniors, you might be paying for coverage that no longer fits your lifestyle. And the truth is, those costs can add up. That's why I've partnered with Chapter. They are the only national advisor that compares every Medicare plan available. A trusted advisor will analyze your doctors and prescriptions to see if your plan actually fits. If it does, they'll tell you. If it not, well, they'll help you fix it. On average, folks who work with Chapter save $1,100 a year just by finding a better fit. And, get this, it's a free 20-minute call. It's that simple. So if you're turning 65 or already on Medicare, call the number for Chapter at 915-671-5252. Again for Chapter, that's 915-671-5252. Do me a favor, tell them the PDB sent you. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now here is a top tip for making moms happy because you may know Mother's Day is coming up and treating them to a spa-like experience at home, well, that's a great way to make them feel special. That's where Cozy Earth comes in. Everything Cozy Earth makes is incredibly soft and luxurious. You probably heard me talk about them before. As an example, their robes and slippers, and what mom doesn't like robes and slippers, are even more comfortable and luxurious than what you'll find at the best resorts. Their robes, they're unbelievably soft. They're perfect for slow mornings after a shower or just relaxing at night. The fabric is breathable, it's lightweight, it's incredibly comfortable. As robes go, these are the cat's pajamas, except it's a robe. It's the kind of robe you put on and immediately feel more relaxed in. Their slippers slip on easily with plus shearling lining and supportive footbeds, making them comfortable to wear around the house all day. But maybe you've got some work to do, so you'll have to come back to the house, take your shoes off, and put your slippers back on. Now, don't wait till the last minute. Cozy Earth Bedding, robes and pajamas make great gifts. They have so many terrific things that mom can use and appreciate every day. In the best part, Cozy Earth backs everything with a 100-night sleep trial and a 10-year warranty. Come on, who does that? So it's completely risk-free. Go to cozyearth.com and use our code PDB for 20% off. That's cozyearth.com promo code PDB for 20% off. And if you see the post-purchase survey, do me a favor. Mention that you heard about Cozy Earth right here at the PDB. Welcome back to the PDB. The second round of negotiations between Israel and Lebanon has produced a three-week extension of the ceasefire just days before Sunday's deadline, buying time, but falling short of an actual real solution. And as we've pointed out in the past, this agreement is between Israel and the government of Lebanon. It's not with Hezbollah. This extension came out of the Thursday round of ambassador-level talks that were originally supposed to be held at the State Department, but President Trump stepped in and moved them over to the White House, elevating the process. It was a continuation of talks that began earlier this month in what was the first direct engagement between Israel and Lebanon since 1993, despite the two countries technically still being in a state of war. Trump came out of the meeting posting on Truth Social, the meeting went very well, adding that the US would work with Lebanon to help it protect itself from Hezbollah. The President also signaled what to expect next as he plans to host Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun in Washington in the coming weeks as part of a push towards something more durable. Vice President JD Vance reinforced that framing, calling the extension a quote, major historic moment, and crediting Trump's direct involvement for making it happen. So from Washington's standpoint, this is a clear step forward, at least for now. Lebanon came into these talks looking for one thing, and that was more time, and they got it. But its core demands are still unresolved, such as the full Israeli military withdrawal from southern Lebanon. That position, pursued by Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, hasn't moved. Now Jerusalem's position hasn't moved either. Netanyahu has been clear that any long term agreement with Beirut hinges on dismantling Hezbollah's military capabilities, not just containing them. On the ground, Israeli forces are still holding a buffer zone roughly six miles inside southern Lebanon, aimed at pushing that threat further away from its northern border in order to protect frontier families from short-range Hezbollah rocket fire. So both sides have been to the table, but they remain far apart on what the end actually looks like. And then there's Hezbollah, because even as these talks are happening, the Iran-backed proxy is still fighting. According to the Times of Israel, Hezbollah fired an anti-tank missile at Israeli troops just ahead of yesterday's talks. The IDF reports the strike landed near Israeli forces but caused no injuries. Israeli defenses also intercepted a suspected Hezbollah drone. As a defensive maneuver, Israel responded with strikes, killing multiple operatives tied to attacks, including three fighters involved in launching anti-aircraft fire. In Jerusalem, members of Netanyahu's cabinet are calling these attacks quote blatant violations of the ceasefire understandings. And that brings us to the core problem. Hezbollah, again, is not part of these talks. They've rejected them outright. Even if Israel and Lebanon reach an agreement on paper, it doesn't mean that Hezbollah has any interest in complying. And the Lebanese government, well, they've shown no ability to control Hezbollah. Now President Trump has been explicit emphasizing that any long-term stability depends on Iran stepping back from its support for groups like Hezbollah, adding that Iran's backing of the terror group will have to be cut. That is a must. But with Hezbollah still active, Iran still backing it, and both Israel and Lebanon holding firm on their core demands, it appears that any permanent or long-term solution is still nowhere to be seen. Okay, I want to turn now to China, because the Trump administration is accusing state-linked actors of carrying out what it describes as, quote, deliberate industrial scale campaigns to steal and replicate America's most advanced AI systems. Now at the center of this is a memo from White House Director of Science and Technology Policy, Michael Kratzios, titled Adversarial Distillation of American AI Models. Well, how's that for a wonky title? Why not just call the paper, How China Steals Our Stuff? According to the memo, what's been discovered isn't a random probing or isolated hacking attempts. The Trump administration says this is a coordinated effort, largely tied to China, designed to break into the outer layers of America's most advanced artificial intelligence systems and then extract how they work. We're talking about tens of thousands of proxy accounts, basically fake users, set up to hammer these systems over and over again, not just testing them, but deliberately trying to bypass safeguards, using what are known as jailbreak techniques to expose proprietary information and systematically extract capabilities. These companies don't hand over their AI models directly. They give access to application programming interfaces known as APIs, which are essentially controlled entry points where you can ask the system questions and get answers back. What these hostile actors are doing is going through that front door over and over again, millions of times, collecting responses and using them to recreate the system behind the scenes. American tech companies are already seeing it play out in real time. OpenAI and Anthropic have flagged large scale extraction efforts tied to China based firms including DeepSeek, Moonshot AI and Minimax. In one case, they say roughly 24,000 fraudulent accounts were used to pull data directly from their systems. So, it's not a warning about what could happen. It's a description of what's underway. Now when these systems are copied, it's not a perfect transfer. Kratzios warns in his memo that what gets stripped out in the process are the guardrails, essentially, the protections built into American models to keep outputs as wrote, quote, ideologically neutral and truth seeking. So what you're left with isn't just a cheaper version of the same technology. It's something less constrained and potentially more unpredictable. Now to dial back some of the alarm about what China can actually achieve here, the administration argues that these knockoff systems may not hold up over time. Kratzios suggests that models built through extraction rather than development are sitting on a fragile foundation. And as detection methods improve, he says those behind these efforts quote, should have little confidence in the integrity and reliability of the models they produce. But even if these systems aren't perfect, they may not need to be. What matters is that if you can replicate advanced AI capabilities at a fraction of the cost, you can accelerate the global competition for artificial intelligence and make it harder for the US to maintain its lead. Now, all of this is unfolding at a fairly significant moment. President Trump is expected to travel to Beijing in the coming weeks, where he'll meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping and seek to reset parts of the US-China economic relationship. And you can expect artificial intelligence competition to be at the center of those talks. And in today's Back of the Brief, Republicans begin advancing a plan to secure long term base funding without relying on democratic votes. More on that when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let me take just a moment of your time to talk about security, specifically your online security, and to tell you about DeleteMe. It's a great company out there working to make people safer online. 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Speaker 3:
[17:21] Hey, Bill O'Reilly here. Please check out my new interview series, We'll Do It Live. Each Thursday, I sit down with the most influential people in America. We're a no-spin chat, no script, anything could happen. You can find We'll Do It Live on billoreilly.com, YouTube or wherever you download your podcasts.

Speaker 2:
[17:48] In today's Back of the Brief, we turn to Washington, where, in case you haven't heard, we are still in the middle of a partial government shutdown. This one is now dragged on for nearly 10 weeks, making it the longest partial government shutdown in US history. As you'll recall, it's centered on a standoff over funding for the Department of Homeland Security, specifically immigration enforcement agencies, including ICE and the Border Patrol. Democrats have been pushing for new oversight measures on immigration enforcement following a series of controversial incidents involving federal agents, including a deadly shooting in Minneapolis that sparked national outrage and calls for accountability. The proposed changes include restrictions on how agents operate in the field, like limits on mask wearing and stricter warrant requirements, while Republicans have rejected those demands, arguing they would hinder enforcement at a time of heightened border concerns. And after weeks of failed negotiations with Democrats, Senate Republicans are now moving to break the deadlock using a workaround that would allow them to fund those agencies on their own. The process began early Thursday morning, when the Senate voted 50 to 48 to begin work on a plan that would send roughly $70 billion to ICE and Border Patrol, using what's known as the budget reconciliation process. Now that's a bit of Capitol Hill procedural jargon, but here's the basics. Reconciliation allows lawmakers to bypass the filibuster and pass legislation with a simple majority, rather than the 60 votes typically needed, meaning Republicans can move forward without Democrat support. It's not typically how Congress funds the government. Reconciliation is usually reserved for major signature legislation. Think tax cuts or sweeping spending bills, not routine agency funding. But Republican leaders say they were left with no choice after talks with Democrats collapsed. As Senator Lindsey Graham put it on the Senate floor, I am sad that we're having to do this, but you gave us no choice. Now you should read that out loud to yourself in a Southern accent, it will sound more authentic. Now this plan is actually just one part of a broader strategy. The Senate has already passed a separate bipartisan bill to fund the rest of DHS, agencies like FEMA and TSA and the Coast Guard. But House Republicans are holding off on voting for that piece until they're confident the immigration funding will make it through the Senate. And that's where things get tricky. Even within the Republican Party, there are concerns about how this will unfold. Some lawmakers worry that focusing narrowly on ICE and Border Patrol could leave other DHS priorities behind, while others are pushing for guarantees that they'll get another chance to pass additional spending legislation later this year. At the same time, Democrats are criticizing the plan for excluding any new reforms or oversight measures on immigration enforcement that they've been demanding. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer accused Republicans of trying to vote shell out billions of dollars to Donald Trump's private army without any common sense restraints. So, you ask, where does that leave things? Well, it leaves us with the typical Washington, DC dysfunctional politics. But also, well, this vote was just the first step in what is a complicated multi-stage process. The House still needs to sign off, committees have to draft the actual legislation, and both chambers must ultimately pass the final bill. Now, in terms of timing, Republicans are working on a fairly aggressive schedule here. The measure passed on Thursday, and instructs key Senate committees to draft the legislation by the 15th of May, with the goal of passing a final funding bill by the 1st of June. It's a deadline reportedly set by President Trump. But the clock, of course, is ticking. Well, it always ticks. The emergency funding that has kept DHS operating during the shutdown is expected to run out as soon as early May. So, while this vote gets the process started, there are still several steps to go in a relatively short window to get it done before existing funds run out. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Friday, the 24th of April. Now if you have any questions or comments, and I hope you do, please reach out to me at pdb at thefirsttv.com. And as it is indeed Friday, your reward for making it through another week is a brand new episode of our PDB Situation Report. How about that? Ryan Macbeth, Weapons Analyst Extraordinaire, joins us to examine America's depleted munitions stockpiles, and explains why condom prices have shot up recently. You won't want to miss that. And Richard Goldberg, from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, he's in the house to examine the current situation with Iran. The episode launches this evening at 10 p.m. on the First TV. And as always, you can find it and past episodes on our YouTube channel. Just go to YouTube and search up at Presidents Daily Brief, and of course on podcast platforms everywhere. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.