transcript
Speaker 1:
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Speaker 3:
[01:00] It's Friday, April 24th, and you could bet on something like this happening. We start here. An American soldier is arrested for allegedly betting on his own operation.
Speaker 4:
[01:13] The sources told us that he is someone who was deeply involved with the execution of this raid.
Speaker 3:
[01:18] There's about to be some predictable scrutiny on prediction markets. The federal government has finally mellowed on POT.
Speaker 5:
[01:24] There is an accepted medical use, and this opens the door to a lot of research.
Speaker 3:
[01:29] This was a revolutionary day for the cannabis industry, but doctors have some blunt questions. And how is this for the spirit of generosity?
Speaker 6:
[01:37] Helping them out, meaning bailing them out or buying it. I think we just buy it.
Speaker 3:
[01:42] Why the US government is considering bailing out an airline. From ABC News, this is Start Here. I'm Brad Mielke. If you listened to our show yesterday, you heard us talking about these new things called prediction markets. Polymarket and Cal-She are two of the biggest prediction markets in the country, taking bets, not just on sports, but on anything. A couple years ago, federal courts declared that betting on federal elections was legal. There have been lots of concerns since. Because it's not just about betting on political races. Over the last few months, we have seen several anonymous investors placing big bets on actions taken by the Trump administration. Take the day the US began bombing Iran. Well, in the days leading up to those attacks, someone placed a series of big bets that Ayatollah Khamenei was about to be killed. The account's name was Maga My Man. Bets have been placed on missile launches and ceasefires. At one point, Polymarket apologized and deleted a market where people bet on the fate of crashed Air Force pilots. Which raises the question, if someone in the inner circle of national security wanted to make some money, could they place a bet on something they knew was about to happen? Or, take it a step further, could someone conceivably greenlight an operation because they had already placed bets on it? Perhaps the most eyebrow-raising wager placed recently was that Nicolas Maduro, the leader of Venezuela, would be removed from power. That was placed just days before Maduro was, guess what, captured in a midnight raid. The bettor made $400,000. Well, yesterday, we learned that DOJ had arrested that bettor, saying, it's a soldier in the US Special Forces. Let's start the day with ABC's Peter Haralambos, who was on the team that broke that story. Peter, what have we learned?
Speaker 4:
[03:35] Yeah, Brad, after months of mystery, we finally figured out who is the person allegedly behind this massive trade. Prosecutors allege that Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a master sergeant with US Special Forces, was deeply involved in the planning and the execution of that high-stakes overnight raid that led to the capture and removal of Nicolas Maduro and his wife.
Speaker 7:
[03:59] A massive joint military and law enforcement raid flawlessly executed by the greatest Americans our country has to offer.
Speaker 4:
[04:08] Prosecutors say that as Van Dyke was involved in planning this raid, he created a Polymarket account on the day after Christmas and then in the following days, began to bet money on different wagers related to what was going on in Venezuela. In total, he bet more than $33,000 on four different wagers on Polymarket. One about Maduro being out by January 31st, 2026. One about Trump invoking the War Powers Act. And then two more about whether the United States would invade Venezuela. In total, according to prosecutors and according to this man's Polymarket account, he made nearly $410,000.
Speaker 3:
[04:50] Unbelievable. If true, do they say that he was part of the raid itself then? Like he probably even knows what night it's going to be? Or do they not know?
Speaker 4:
[04:58] Yeah, sources told us that he is someone who was deeply involved with the execution of this raid. The indictment, though, is vague on the details, but it does include this note that Van Dyke had a photo on his Google account that showed him on the deck of the USS Iwo Jima. That's the ship Maduro was removed to after his capture. And in that photo, Van Dyke was wearing military fatigues, holding a rifle alongside other service members, kind of suggesting the nature of his involvement in this.
Speaker 3:
[05:28] What has Polymarket said about this, Peter? Because from the outside, this seems like the thing everyone was cynical about with these prediction markets. That, yeah, you can bet on what you think is going to happen, but somebody could just be betting with inside information on what they know is about to happen, including perhaps even government employees or officials.
Speaker 4:
[05:46] Yeah, at this point, Polymarket is trying to portray this as a success. They're saying that this arrest is proof that the system works and that they cooperated with this investigation and actually made the referral that initiated it. That being said, I think this is kind of the most glaring example we've seen to date of someone using allegedly inside information to profit handsomely. This is actually the first time in the history of these kind of prediction markets that the Department of Justice has prosecuted a case of insider trading.
Speaker 3:
[06:16] Right, we had just said how Cal she the other day had decided not to involve the DOJ when they were suspending some of those politicians. Peter, what role does the government play in all this going forward? Because if we've gamified everything in our society to the point where you're not just looking to make money on companies continued success on the stock market, you can make money knowing that the president will say a certain word in his speech. You can make money knowing who Time Magazine will put on their cover. These are real bets that have been placed in the past. Is there a way to regulate that before we just start assuming as Americans that every big decision was actually timed to pay somebody off somewhere?
Speaker 4:
[06:53] So just minutes after we went out with this reporting yesterday, President Donald Trump was speaking in the Oval Office and he was directly asked about this and during his remarks, he basically said he doesn't like the fact that these kind of prediction markets have basically made the world a casino.
Speaker 6:
[07:09] Every place they're doing these betting things, I was never much in favor of it. I like it conceptually, but it is what it is.
Speaker 4:
[07:16] That being said, his administration, his direct family has been very supportive of these kinds of markets. For example, Donald Trump Jr., the president's son, is on the advisory board and has a stake in Polymarket itself. So really questions here about if the president means what he said yesterday in terms of not taking these markets, or if they will be able to continue running with relatively little oversight.
Speaker 6:
[07:41] No, I think that I'm not happy with any of that stuff.
Speaker 4:
[07:45] At this point, though, it seems like both Polymarket and Coliseum are trying their best to present themselves to regulators as companies that are responsible, that would make referrals when necessary, that can identify irregular trades. The hope there is, I think, that self-regulation would prevent more and more federal oversight. I think this example really brings to light the stakes here. And the big question about whether or not there are the right enforcement mechanisms, the right safeguards in place, because in a way, this prosecution was aided by the fact that this soldier is a US government employee. Because of that, they were able to use a particular law that's been around for decades. But in the case of private individuals, that's where it gets trickier. Experts say there are big questions about whether private individuals who have non-public information, how they can even be prosecuted under the current statutes in place. We're beginning though to see a little bit of a bipartisan push from Congress, from individual states, to put more regulation in place though.
Speaker 3:
[08:46] Yeah, I was going to say, there is a regulatory body here, the CFTC, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. They have reportedly had some of their staffing slashed in recent months. There have been questions about whether the White House is actually one of them going after people. They were cosigning on to this investigation here, and now have actually filed a suit of their own against this soldier. Peter Haralambos, thank you.
Speaker 4:
[09:06] Thanks so much, Brad.
Speaker 3:
[09:11] Next up on Start Here, Weed Growers and the Federal Government. Not best buds, but a new joint effort after the break. This show is sponsored by Quince. This time of year, a lot of us are thinking about what's in our closets. Spring cleaning is an opportunity to pair down your wardrobe and have fewer things but better ones. Pieces that are well made and easy to wear all the time. Well, that you can get with Quince. Quince makes high quality, everyday essentials using premium materials like 100 percent European linen and their super soft flow knit active wear fabric. It's moisture wicking, anti-odor and soft enough that you'll want to wear it all day. In fact, we have Quince products in our house that were always like, man, these last well and they don't carry that stank on them after they get out of the washing machine. Best of all, their prices are 50 to 60% less than similar brands, and that's because Quince works directly with ethical factories, so you're not paying a markup for middlemen. Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to quince.com/start for free shipping and 365 day returns. Now available in Canada too, go to quince, q u i n c e.com/start for free shipping and 365 day returns. quince.com/start. This episode is sponsored by BetterHelp. Did you know 88% of Americans reported feeling financial stress at the start of 2026? Yeah, at the start of the year, who knows what they're at now. And if you're feeling worried about money or your financial future, you're not alone. Those worries can turn into troubled sleep, feelings of failure, even relationship conflict. But therapy can help. One easy way to talk through your financial stress is with BetterHelp. BetterHelp is the world's largest online therapy platform with a network of over 30,000 therapists. They make it easy to access therapy, even if you've never tried it before. Over BetterHelp's 12 years in business, they've served more than 6 million people worldwide. To get started, just fill out a short questionnaire about what you're looking for. BetterHelp will match you with a qualified licensed therapist who's trained to listen, whether you're looking to unpack your relationships with money or build healthier coping strategies or just feel less alone. When life feels overwhelming, therapy can help. Sign up and get 10% off at betterhelp.com/start here. That's betterhelp.com/start here. You might have noticed, in fact, some of you might have celebrated, that earlier this week was 420, the day marijuana users around the world have designated the Puff Puff Pass. And that always kind of reignites the debate around cannabis use in this country. For all the steps that states have taken to legalize weed, maybe your state is one of them, the drug remains illegal in the eyes of the federal government. Fewer people are arrested for Poth than used to be, but those arrests still play a major role in prison systems around the country. And state-approved cannabis use has turned into its own major economic force. So, if you're the federal government, what do you do about it exactly? Last year, President Trump signed an executive order telling the Justice Department to examine what changes it could make. Well, yesterday, in an extraordinary move, the DOJ reclassified marijuana on the federal books.
Speaker 6:
[12:21] A lot of people suffering from big problems, which seems to be the best answer. They're very happy about it, so the rescheduling is starting.
Speaker 3:
[12:29] Let's go to Dr. Alok Patel. He's a physician at Stanford Children's Health. He's also an ABC News medical contributor. Dr. Patel, reclassification, what does that mean exactly?
Speaker 5:
[12:37] Absolutely, so off the bat, what this means is that marijuana is moving from a schedule one substance, which generally have no accepted medical uses, high abuse potential, think heroin or LSD, and it's moving to become a schedule three substance, which can have an accepted medical use. There is still potential risk or abuse potentials. Other medications in this schedule include ketamine, steroids, Tylenol with codeine, but importantly, there is an accepted medical use and this opens the door to a lot of research. And listen, especially in 420, with a lot of people talking about weed, people say that this move is about 50 years coming and that marijuana should have never been classified as a schedule one substance. So aside from the cannabis industry, which might be celebrating some of the banking and taxing changes, a lot of people are excited about the potential for more accepted medical uses, more research, and health care professionals are excited about the potential to see these clinical trials go forward. So we better know when and if certain cannabinoid marijuana products are acceptable for our patients.
Speaker 3:
[13:47] Which is just so I'm clear though, because sometimes I'll talk about marijuana being legal in certain states, and our legal department will be like, no, no, no, it's not, it's federally illegal. They're just effectively turning a blind eye to the states that have passed these laws. Is that still the case or what?
Speaker 5:
[14:02] That's an important distinction, because the actual legality of marijuana use is going to depend on which state you live in, whether it is legal for recreational use or medicinal use. So this reclassification doesn't mean that you can immediately run into a pharmacy and go get medical marijuana, but it does kind of open the door not only for more medical research, possibly for states to take further action in the legality.
Speaker 3:
[14:27] Yeah, and tell me how this is going to end up affecting people with it. You mentioned research is a big part of this.
Speaker 5:
[14:31] Why? I think this is probably the biggest part when it comes to the medical profession. There are multiple clinical trials happening that are involving some form of marijuana, and these are clinical trials and looking at conditions such as chronic pain, seizure conditions, inflammatory conditions, migraines. There's so many different uses, and PTSD is another one I should bring up as well. There's different mental health conditions that we're studying, we're trying to figure out how exactly the different cannabinoids may affect people. And a clinical trial is one thing, but actually getting the research and getting the resources to move these forward is a whole other ball game. We wanna know at what dose can marijuana help our patients? What's the risk profile look like? What's the age in which this should be given? Think about any other medication, any other medication at all, any prescription, whatever. We have clear indications of when and who and if people should get it. We don't have that.
Speaker 3:
[15:28] And it's tough to do that if it's classified like heroin, because that's the thing, you don't give away heroin to patients being like, see what the dosage is like for you.
Speaker 5:
[15:35] But that is exactly what's happening right now with medical marijuana, is there's many people who are going to dispensaries, they're going online, they're talking to people, and it's a little bit of trial and error. It's a little bit of listening to anecdotes about what product and what dose you should be taking. And I also want to make sure I'm paying respect to just how many cannabinoids there are out there. The most famous ones people talk about are THC and CBD. But there's over a hundred others, and they may have different therapeutic benefits as well. CBD, CBC, CBG, there's many others out there, and people will take some and say, hey, my migrates feel a lot better, I'm able to sleep better, my appetite's improved. And I want to respect what people are going through and say it's time, the science, the research matches the user experience. It's a little crazy that we can give a young child with chronic pain, with terminal illness, a narcotic, but I can't always give them a CBD gummy, for example, because we don't have the research to support that use case.
Speaker 3:
[16:40] So does it sound, is a medical professional then? It sounds like you're like, yeah, here we go, marijuana for everyone, let's do it.
Speaker 5:
[16:46] Slow the reefer, maybe not for everyone, but I am excited to see more research and use cases for people who truly need it. But I do have to be the fun police and say, I want to make sure that we have the data because there is the potential for addiction, for drug interactions. We don't yet know what the psychiatric risks. There's vulnerable populations who probably shouldn't be using marijuana and pediatrician hat on. I'm worried about young people, adolescents and teens, and using marijuana, especially while they still have a developing brain and we're seeing more research about the potential harms long-term. So completely different topic, but guess what? Every medication has risks and benefits, and we need to better understand what those are when it comes to marijuana, when it comes to the over 100 cannabinoids.
Speaker 3:
[17:28] Right, and completely changes the ballgame, you'd think, for these state-licensed commercial cannabis companies that now can tell banks and creditors, like, hey, we are fundamentally different than we were just a few days ago. Dr. Alok Patel, thank you.
Speaker 5:
[17:41] Brad, you got it, anytime.
Speaker 3:
[17:46] Yesterday, we told you about how dire the situation is becoming for airlines around the world, especially in Europe and Asia, that rely so much on oil coming through the Strait of Hormuz. But recently, an American air carrier has been in such dire straits that there have been questions about whether they can even stay in business.
Speaker 8:
[18:04] There is new trouble for Spirit Airlines. Another bankruptcy filing by Spirit Airlines.
Speaker 9:
[18:08] Spirit Airlines could begin liquidating early this week.
Speaker 3:
[18:12] Spirit Airlines has been teetering for a while now. Well, this week we learned the Trump administration might be considering a half billion dollar bailout for this company. Let's go to ABC's Elizabeth Scholes, who covers business for us. Elizabeth, first up, what is happening with Spirit? Like, how did this get so bad?
Speaker 8:
[18:28] Yeah, it's pretty bad for Spirit Airlines, Brad. We're talking about an air carrier that has filed for bankruptcy now two times. This is the well-known budget air carrier. You think of low-cost flights, you think of Spirit, those yellow planes, really low fees, but you often get dinged with some of those add-on fees when you're actually booking with them. But this is an airline that is really trying to make its name, offering the lowest cost flights possible. And that has ultimately been a business model that hasn't worked out for it, as we've seen, because of two bankruptcy filings. The company was going to emerge from that second bankruptcy, but then along came the Iran War, and we saw jet fuel cost roughly double in just a time of less than two months. The airline basically said that that threw a wrench into its balance sheet that it didn't see coming, and it created all sorts of financial headaches and put it in a position where ultimately, according to sources, Spirit was in a position where it could have to liquidate, shut down, because its financial situation became so bad, Brad.
Speaker 3:
[19:28] And so now, there's a potential bailout in the works? What would that be?
Speaker 8:
[19:32] Right, so a source familiar with this matter tells us that Spirit Airlines and the Trump administration are in advanced discussions about the terms of a rescue deal. So we are told that this deal could include a $500 million loan from the federal government. The terms have not been finalized at this point, but it could also include an option for the government, the federal government, to take a stake in Spirit Airlines up to 90%. So basically, the government could become the majority owner in Spirit Airlines.
Speaker 6:
[20:08] We're looking at helping them. We have 18,000 people that live in this country that are great people and great employees. And we're thinking about doing it, helping them out, meaning bailing them out or buying it. I think we just buy it.
Speaker 8:
[20:21] This has not been finalized. The White House says that this is something that President Trump and the Commerce Department are tracking.
Speaker 6:
[20:29] We'd be getting it virtually debt-free. They have some good aircraft, they have good assets. And when the price of the oil goes down, we'll sell it for a profit. I'd love to be able to save those jobs. I'd love to be able to save an airline. I like having a lot of airlines.
Speaker 8:
[20:45] Spirit Airlines says that as of now, it's business as usual, flights are operating, guests can continue to book flights, travel, use credits. If you have a ticket booked, it's on track as of now, at least, Spirit says.
Speaker 3:
[20:57] And the CEO came out with a statement expressing, thanks to President Trump for considering this. He said they look forward to a solution that protects jobs and low costs for travelers. He kept driving home. But Elizabeth, I get why he wants this, right? I get why Spirit would want to bail out. Why does the US government? Because it sounds like at this point, there's even opposition among some of President Trump's own allies.
Speaker 8:
[21:17] Yeah, this pretty much immediately faced fierce opposition, Brad. We saw bipartisan backlash. Republican Senator Ted Cruz said that this is an absolutely terrible idea that the government doesn't know a damn thing, in his words, about running a failed budget airline. Senator Elizabeth Warren, the Democrat from Massachusetts, also said that she opposes any sort of bailout. You know, we have seen the government bail out airlines in the past. Think of COVID.
Speaker 6:
[21:43] We're going to back the airlines 100 percent. It's not their fault.
Speaker 8:
[21:47] We saw more than $50 billion from the federal government to basically give a lifeline to the airlines. But that was a very different situation, Brad. At that time, travel was pretty much halted overnight because of the pandemic. And these airlines were, they said, on the brink of collapse. Very different than one budget air carrier that's a much smaller market share. About 3 percent of flights in the US are on Spirit. You know, getting a lifeline from the government and getting a potential stake of ownership from the federal government. Spirit actually tried to merge with JetBlue during the Biden administration, and that deal was blocked.
Speaker 10:
[22:23] We allege that if allowed to proceed, this merger will limit choices and drive up ticket prices for passengers across the country.
Speaker 8:
[22:31] So they are actually saying this would be a way to kind of right that wrong, make sure that the thousands of workers who work at Spirit would keep their jobs and that this would maintain a budget friendly option for a lot of American flyers, too.
Speaker 6:
[22:45] We have somebody that wants to run it, do a good job, smart person, and if they run it properly and if prices come down, all of a sudden, it's a valuable asset.
Speaker 8:
[22:56] But also, Brad, you have to imagine that in the minds of people within the Trump administration, there is this reality that do you want to see an American company go under blaming, at least in part, this spike in costs because of the Iran War? The reason that we have seen-
Speaker 3:
[23:14] Because of your war, Mr. President, this is why we finally collapsed. That's not the headline you want.
Speaker 8:
[23:20] The reason that we have seen those jet fuel costs go up is undoubtedly because of the standstill in the Strait of Hormuz. And no doubt about it, Spirit Airlines had problems before that, but this made those problems a lot worse.
Speaker 3:
[23:33] Yeah, really interesting, especially because we've seen other bailouts in other industries. Some of them have worked and been profitable, some of them have not, some of them the US has lost money on because companies just go under, they can't pay the loans back. In all these cases though, economists have made the arguments that the more you float this idea to companies that, yeah, maybe you could get a government bailout, the more irresponsible risks these companies might take, assuming they'll get help later down the line. All right, Elizabeth Schultz, thank you.
Speaker 8:
[23:58] Thank you, Brad.
Speaker 3:
[24:01] Okay, one more quick break. When we come back, you think you'd expect ice on Mount Everest, but no one expected this. One last thing is next. This show is sponsored by Found. Ask any small business owner and they'll tell you finances get messy quick. A bank account here, quick books there, tax and invoicing apps stacked on top. Before long, you're buried in expensive tools behind on your books and unsure where your business really stands. But Found can help you wrangle your finances once and for all. Found is a business checking solution that eliminates the clutter. With one tool, you can handle it all from the banking to the bookkeeping, to the invoices, to the taxes, no more paying for multiple subscriptions and dealing with clunky, outdated apps. Found has automated things like tracking expenses, finding write-offs and budgeting for tax time. With Found, business finances are straightforward so you can get back to doing what you love. Take back control of your business today. Open a Found account for free at found.com. That's found, found.com. Found is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services are provided by lead bank member FDIC. Join the hundreds of thousands who have already streamlined their finances with Found. This show is sponsored by duck.ai, a new product from Duck Duck Go. They're all kinds of worthy uses for AI, but they shouldn't come at the cost of your privacy. So if you've ever hesitated before typing something into an AI chat, duck.ai is here for you. At duck.ai, you can chat privately with the same AIs you might already be using, ChatGPT or Claude, and your data stays yours, not theirs. Your chats aren't used for tracking, training or profiling you. There's no account required and no subscription required, and it's completely free. That is the kind of privacy you can expect from DuckDuckGo, a web browser and search engine that built its reputation on protecting your data, not collecting it. DuckDuckGo has been protecting privacy online since 2008, raising the standard for trust on the Internet. If you want to use AI without giving up your privacy, go today to duck.ai/start. That's duck.ai/start, a private way to chat with AI from DuckDuckGo, where AI is always optional and private. duck.ai/start. And one last thing, it's that time of year when Mountaineers are getting ready to summit the biggest baddest peak of them all, Mount Everest. April and May are often when the weather is most stable, which means people are all converging on the mountain right now. We often hear reports of traffic jams on the trails. But this year, there's another problem, not a traffic jam, a straight up roadblock. On the trek up to the summit, there is a base camp followed by four other camps. Just below what is called Camp One is this gigantic block of ice. This is glacial ice that has fallen right into the middle of the trail. It's too wide to go around without putting some cliffs in the play. When I heard about this though, I was like, well, so what? These are mountain climbers. Climb over the thing. It's a hundred feet high and the bottom is unstable. Imagine falling off of a ten story building. So what do you do? Well, according to Sherpas, the indigenous guides from Nepal who run the trail, you just got to wait for it to melt. Lucky for them, weather is nice right now and they think that melting could happen within days. But once this glacier ice does melt, that won't give climbers the green light. Usually Sherpas are up at higher elevations right now, clearing paths, setting up ropes. They have not been able to move higher than this ice block, which means down below, delays are mounting. The most exciting thing to do right now is watch ice melt. I heard about a block of ice. I was picturing something you could get at the liquor store. This is much bigger. Hey, by the way, I mentioned it was Take Your Kid to Work Day. Let's put some of these kids to work. We got Tara Gimble's son with us. Sawyer is on the mic, Sawyer. Show us what you got, man.
Speaker 11:
[28:09] Start Here is produced by Kelly Trez, Jen Newman, Anthony Aueron-Ferrin, and Elmi Schatz.
Speaker 3:
[28:22] Yes, well done. Ariel Chester is our social media producer. Josh Cohan is director of podcast programming. I'm our managing editor. Thanks to John Newman, Tara Gimble, Eamonn McNiff, and Katie Dendoss. Special thanks this week to Trevor Hastings, Desiree Adib, Oren Oppenheim, Charlotte Gardner, and Eric Strauss. That's Sawyer. I'm Brad Mielke. I'll see you next week.
Speaker 11:
[28:45] Brad Mielke is our manager editor.
Speaker 3:
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Speaker 12:
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