transcript

Speaker 1:
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Speaker 2:
[03:12] I'll take Payton Tolle. I'll take the Olive Garden breadstick.

Speaker 3:
[03:17] Always going for the breadsticks.

Speaker 2:
[03:19] Because that's the whole point. They put the extra breadstick out there. One more breadstick than there are people at the table. That way everyone's like, Oh, I don't want to be the one to take Payton Tolle. You can have it.

Speaker 3:
[03:29] But you want to be the one to do it.

Speaker 2:
[03:31] I will take the one. I understand the psychology.

Speaker 1:
[03:35] How good do breadsticks sound right now?

Speaker 2:
[03:37] Oh my God. I mean, I'm going like, I'm planning on going. I was saying before the show, I'm planning to go see. They're re-releasing the Wachowskis Speed Racer in theaters this weekend. That movie Rocks, by the way, if you've never seen it, incredible. I love that movie. I'm going to Times Square to watch it. Might just hit up the Times Square Olive Garden. Go get some breadsticks. It takes some breadsticks into the theater.

Speaker 1:
[03:58] Please send pics if you do.

Speaker 2:
[04:01] All right. Payton Tolle made his season debut. And I think this was the most impressive start by any widely available pitcher of the season. I mean, he went up against the Yankees, six innings, 11 strikeouts, one earned run on a solo home run by Jazz Chisholm. That was nice to see for Jazz. Hitting a homer off a lefty. I know people are very frustrated with him. Yeah, man, Payton Tolle is, I think he's got ace upside. I mean, this is one of the top pitching prospects of baseball, depending on who you ask. There are certain people, I think Lance Prostowski might have had him as either the top or second best pitching prospect baseball entering the season. We all think very highly of Lance Prostowski's ability to highlight pitchers, so that says a lot. It all starts with this elite fastball. He gets way down the mound, has huge extension. He's a gigantic lefty, throws it 97, 98, 99. He commands it well. It's got all of the pitch characteristics you want from a four-seamer, but last year that was kind of all it was. He was throwing that pitch about 65, 70 percent of the time when he made it to the majors. This year, he's got the sinker, generated some ground balls today. The curveball, seven whiffs with the curveball for Payton Tolle. He was commanding that really well. I think the cutter looks pretty good. I do not think Payton Tolle is the sixth or seventh best pitcher on the Red Sox, which is where he entered the season on the depth chart. I think Payton Tolle might be the second best pitcher on the Red Sox.

Speaker 3:
[05:40] Yeah, I mean, certainly talent wise. And obviously, he came up last year toward the end and had an impressive debut. I think it was eight strikeouts and five and a third. And then things didn't go very well after that. But his arsenal is so fleshed out now beyond that fastball, which the fastball is awesome. The fastball, it looks like it's on a ramp or something. Like you see the rise. Because he gets this great extension, because he has a lower arm angle, and because he brushed against triple digits with it, like it's a really impressive pitch. But now the cutter, the sinker, and this curveball are all basically new. Frank and I, when we were talking about totally getting called up the other day, we were like, okay, so he basically has three variations of the fastball now, and we can see that working for him. But this curveball that got close to half his whiffs in this start, that wasn't even a weapon I was counting on from Payton Tolle. He's also really fun to watch. He's got the really bushy mustache, and he's very animated on the mound, a lot of like fist pumps. He grunts like Monica Seles with every pitch, like a deeper grunt than Monica Seles. But there's a grunt that you hear over the broadcast. And it's just so much fun to watch. You know, could it go like last year and things back up after this started? It's possible. But because the arsenal's fuller now, I'm not expecting it. I do think they find a way to keep him around. Obviously, he's taking the place of Sonny Gray, which sounds like a not so serious hamstring injury.

Speaker 2:
[07:17] He played catch, I think, the other day.

Speaker 3:
[07:18] But, you know, he's gonna miss more just as one turn, obviously, Sonny Gray. And by the time he's ready to come back, however many turns down the road that is, any other injury to the Red Sox rotation keeps Tolle in. Maybe Brian Bayo continues to stink it up between now and then. Maybe Connelly Early's the one who gets optioned at that point because Tolle's just doing so much better. So I think, I agree that this is a very exciting development and Tolle absolute must add across the board.

Speaker 1:
[07:55] So I tweeted earlier that I feel like Tolle just kind of leaped to the front of the must add waiver wire pitchers ahead of anybody that we've talked about recently. And maybe you guys disagree, but I would put them ahead of even Noah Schultz or Spencer Araghetti or either of the Braves guys for sure. Reed Detmers. Like I would put them at the front of that list. Would you guys as well?

Speaker 3:
[08:19] Yeah. You know, Chris and I were talking before we started recording because he had already made the adjustment in his rankings and I was reacting in my rankings to this Tolle start. Now, just to warn everybody, Tolle in standard CBS leagues is not eligible at SP right now, just RP. So if you're looking in the SP, where is it you guys forgot about? No, we didn't. Look in RP. That's where he is until he gets five starts. You know, so we're comparing him to other starting pitchers with relief pitcher eligibility. I put him right behind Braxton Ashcraft. I think Chris puts him ahead of Ashcraft.

Speaker 2:
[08:53] Put him one ahead, yeah.

Speaker 3:
[08:54] Very, you know, obviously, off to a very strong start himself. And, you know, if we had more assurances, Tolle was sticking around, I might make the switch. I think Tolle probably has more upside between the two. But that comes out to, it comes out to Tolle being my 18th best reliever in Roto, where obviously saves are in high demand. And had to have points though, it comes out to Tolle being my sixth reliever with so many good ones being on the IL.

Speaker 1:
[09:25] Yeah, I, so when I tweeted that earlier, someone told me I was crazy for taking him over Noah Schultz. And I kind of-

Speaker 3:
[09:33] That's not crazy. Look at the prospect rankings just before the season. Tolle was ahead of Schultz and all of them.

Speaker 1:
[09:41] I get people wanting to guard against Tolle potentially getting sent down when Sonny Gray comes back. But if you don't act now, then-

Speaker 2:
[09:52] This is your chance.

Speaker 1:
[09:53] This is your chance to get him. Anything can happen between now and then. So I understand Noah Schultz is probably more likely to remain in the rotation. But if Payton Tolle just pitches well, I think they'll find a way to keep him in the rotation as well. So I just really wouldn't overthink it. I would just go with who has showed you more so far. To me, that's Payton Tolle, obviously.

Speaker 2:
[10:13] I would try not to drop Noah Schultz.

Speaker 1:
[10:15] Yeah, someone sent me the roster as the only person they could drop Noah Schultz.

Speaker 2:
[10:19] If that's the case, then OK. But I'm looking at like there are other pitchers who are out there, like Shane Boss. I think Shane Boss will be a useful pitcher. Probably the floor is higher for Payton Tolle. I would drop Shane Boss to get Payton Tolle on my team.

Speaker 1:
[10:35] 100%.

Speaker 2:
[10:36] I would drop, I mean, Jack Flaherty is probably like 80% rostered still. I would do that.

Speaker 3:
[10:41] Those are the easy ones.

Speaker 1:
[10:43] What about Jack Leiter, 88%?

Speaker 3:
[10:45] Yeah, I think I have to do that at this point.

Speaker 2:
[10:47] Like Tyler Malley, I would.

Speaker 1:
[10:49] Shane O'Mac? Shane O'Mac?

Speaker 3:
[10:51] Yeah, I would.

Speaker 2:
[10:52] I think so, yeah.

Speaker 3:
[10:53] Wow.

Speaker 2:
[10:56] I think if Payton Tolle was SP eligible, I think he would at least be a top 60 player in the rank. Yeah, maybe top 50.

Speaker 3:
[11:02] Well, I mean, just look at where we have Ashcraft, because I think I have Ashcraft at around 50th. And I'm saying in RP rankings, Tolle is right behind him. So closer to 50th than 60th for me.

Speaker 2:
[11:12] Yeah, Ashcraft is 53 for me. So, yeah, that's right around the same spot. Yeah.

Speaker 1:
[11:17] All right. Well, Payton Tolle was not the only young starting pitcher we had here on the mound, actually one making his Major League debut. Scott, from your Atlanta Braves, Jr Ritchie looked great.

Speaker 3:
[11:29] Jr Ritchie, except for the first pitch, his first pitch in the Major Leagues.

Speaker 2:
[11:33] It was so bad, James Wood pulled a home run off of him.

Speaker 3:
[11:36] Yeah.

Speaker 2:
[11:37] Yeah.

Speaker 3:
[11:38] But he regrouped to Jr Ritchie, seven innings in his debut. How unlikely is that? A pitcher in his Major League debut these days going seven innings, allowed two home runs. The other one was a solo home run as well to CJ Abrams, but he struck out seven and pretty much lived up to the scouting report. Five hits, two walks, nine whiffs on 89 pitches. So that's not a very impressive whiff rate, but he's never had a very impressive whiff rate in the minors too. What he did have down at AAA's five starts this year was a 0.99 ERA. Gets a lot of ground balls, gets a lot of weak contact, has a six pitch arsenal. I don't think he's as good as like Nolan McLean, but I think if you're just comparing, I think he's a similar pitcher with that deep arsenal, with all the ground balls, the weak contact. I don't think he's going to get as many strikeouts as McLean, but I do think he's going to get strikeouts at a rate beyond his swinging strike rate. So it was a good debut for Ritchie. I think it moves him ahead of Didier Fuentes in the packing order. They have not said yet if they're going to send it back down after this start, because this was not planned. I mean, it was a series of unfortunate events. Reynaldo Lopez got pulled really early from his start.

Speaker 2:
[13:16] And Fuentes only went three innings.

Speaker 3:
[13:18] Which meant they had to bring up Fuentes, who didn't go long in his start, which meant they needed to use Martin Perez and relief in that start, which meant they needed Ritchie on Thursday. But he pitched so well that Walt Weiss says they're going to talk about it. With Spencer Strider soon to return, I mean, that Martin Perez spot is going to get swallowed up by him. So maybe there's one turn left for Ritchie to make a start, or maybe they just send him down and go with Perez there. I don't know. I think he's a low priority out at this point, Ritchie compared to Tolle. But he made a strong impression and I'm sure we'll see him again soon, even if he does get sent down.

Speaker 1:
[13:56] Yeah, so would you take JR Ritchie over someone like Chase Doe Lander? It's just kind of hard to answer because we don't know if Ritchie's sticking around, right?

Speaker 2:
[14:05] No, I'd rather have Doe Lander. I think he's more talented too.

Speaker 1:
[14:07] Okay, so more like a flyer stash type right now for JR Ritchie.

Speaker 3:
[14:11] If Ritchie was sticking around, I would gamble on him over Doe Lander being the rare Rockies pitcher who matters in fantasy. But since we don't think he's going to, except for maybe one start, you gotta go Doe Lander over that, which puts Ritchie outside the top 100 in my starting pitcher rankings.

Speaker 1:
[14:27] Scott, you asked the question earlier, how rare is it for a rookie to come up and throw seven innings? I saw this tweet from the Braves account, first pitcher in Braves history to complete at least seven innings while allowing no more than two runs and striking out at least seven.

Speaker 2:
[14:43] In their debut, I assume, right?

Speaker 1:
[14:44] And that is, yeah, in their debut. It's a pretty illustrious history of pitchers in the Braves organization, so pretty awesome stuff there from Jr Ritchie. I guess the one who did not perform very well, just quickly mention, Christian Scott did start for the Mets. It didn't last very long. He only recorded four outs. He walked five, only one strikeout. Velocity was up a little bit, but my guess is based on how bad the start was, how quick the leash was, that he will get sent back down to the minors after this one. So maybe we'll see him again this season. I still think there's a little bit of upside there, but obviously really bad outing there from Christian Scott. My player of the night is the pitcher who opposed Payton Tolle, and we've talked a lot about him. Just want to have a conversation about how high he can climb up the rankings. That is Cam Schlittler, who at the Red Sox, eight innings, two runs, one earned, five strikeouts to one walk, had 11 whiffs on 96 pitches. It is now one earned runner fewer in four of six starts, has just four walks total in 35 and two thirds innings so far this season. And Chris, you made this comp earlier in the year. It's kind of like this souped up Lance Lin approach where he just goes with three different fastballs, four seam, cutter, sinker, and so far it's worked out tremendously for him. So I looked, you guys, I don't know how this happened. You guys just sped right past me on Cam Schlittler. Scott has him at SP 15, Chris, you have him at SP 18. I have him at 22. The question is, how high can he rise the way that he's looked so far?

Speaker 3:
[16:23] I think he could be an ace.

Speaker 2:
[16:25] I think he'd be top 12.

Speaker 3:
[16:28] The thing is, the reason you'd hold back on a pitcher this young is, OK, he's not going to give you the workload. But he went about 150 innings last year. So let him go deep to both him and Nolan McClain. I moved them up to 15th and 16th ahead of like George Kirby, who is off to a decent start, I guess. But he hasn't he hasn't done what I wanted to see him do to be convinced he's going to have like a bounce back season. You know, he's not missing bats at even the rate he was last year. So I lose a little faith in the Kirby bounce back. I also moved both of them ahead of Freddie Peralta, who I thought overachieved last year anyway. And so Schlittler and Nolan McClain, I now see them as being on a very, very clear ace trajectory. And the fact that they're working as deep into games, that I don't think they're going to have any season long limitations. I'm not sure what reason you'd have to doubt either of them at this point, as good as they were down the stretch last year and as good as they've been so far this year.

Speaker 1:
[17:37] It's nice when a plan comes together, too. I would say Noel McClain and Cam Schlittler were the most obvious breakout candidates coming into the season. I know we expressed a little bit more, I guess, skepticism on McClain, but then, you know, as spring went on and everything, we kind of bowed out on that.

Speaker 2:
[17:54] Yeah, I think for me, there were kind of both guys that I was a little out on at first, and then as the spring went on, it was just kind of, they both looked so good, not just the results, but just the stuff, like Schlittler adding more velocity, that cutter, and McClain just, the quality of the stuff is outrageous. I actually do have McClain in my top 12. Now, Schlittler's 18. There's a little bit of a gap there. I just, I buy the strikeouts for McClain a little more, but it would not take much to move. Like, if you really hounded me to move McClain up to 15, I could do that without really thinking. And then it's like, I've got Dylan Cease at 13, I've got Cole Regans at 12.

Speaker 1:
[18:40] Regans is a tough one to rank right now.

Speaker 2:
[18:42] Regans is really tough. I'm still just kind of defaulting to, I believe in the stuff, but the stuff's been a little worse this year. So. Yeah.

Speaker 3:
[18:51] I moved Logan Webb down behind those guys too.

Speaker 2:
[18:53] Yeah, same. Webb's down to 21 for me. I, it could, I could see Schlittler getting to, top 12 without much having to change. I think that that's pretty fungible there.

Speaker 3:
[19:08] I mean, even just some of these pitchers ranked ahead of him are going to get hurt.

Speaker 2:
[19:12] Yeah, that's true. I mean, I got a Tonya 14. I don't know what to do with that one.

Speaker 3:
[19:15] Schlittler himself could get hurt.

Speaker 1:
[19:17] He's throwing so hard. Yeah, like it could happen.

Speaker 3:
[19:19] So, but you know, some of these pitchers are going to get hurt. So like just by virtue of that, I would imagine if Schlittler's not the one who gets hurt, he does climb his way into the top 12. I probably shouldn't admit this, but getting back to the point you were saying about being out on these guys early relative to consensus. I actually had Nolan McClain in my Bust 1.0, which came out in late January.

Speaker 2:
[19:44] I did too.

Speaker 3:
[19:45] And when I hear myself argue against him, I just didn't like, I just didn't find it convincing myself. So I ended up moving him out of 2.0. And a lot of what happened with those two, Schlittler and McClain, is there was this big group of sophomore pitchers. I know some of them are technically rookies, like McClain's technically a rookie, but obviously we saw quite a bit of them last year. This big group of second year pitchers that had so much upside, they kept disqualifying themselves from that range of the rankings. Like remember there were concerns about Chase Burns making the roster, Treja Savage got hurt, Chandler, Bubba Chandler with the control issues. It kind of just left McClain and Schlittler there and they were looking great. And it's like, okay, if you want the upside, you got to pay up for those two. And it looks like it was worth it. I think I have one share of each of them that I got late and I'm very happy with it.

Speaker 1:
[20:43] Heads up, if you want Scott's sleeper hitters and two star pitchers for next week, we will break them down on FBT Express that will be out on this Saturday in the podcast feed also on YouTube. And you can read all of his week six preview content on the website, cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball. And one more thing, I won't be on the podcast this Sunday. So just a heads up, don't be alarmed. Scott and Chris will hold it down. Is that booing because you have to host? I'm sorry, Chris.

Speaker 3:
[21:14] I don't know, just because you won't be here for that. Tell them ahead of time because now they're going to tune out. Everyone knows you're the glue that holds this together. They don't want to listen to it without Frank.

Speaker 1:
[21:26] It might be our most watched episode of the year.

Speaker 2:
[21:29] Yes, partially it is because I have to do more work.

Speaker 1:
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Speaker 1:
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Speaker 2:
[25:26] Average for position players going on the IL the calf strain is 35 days missed, median is 30. Lindor did have a grade two strain in 2019. If you guys can remember that far back.

Speaker 3:
[25:40] Nope.

Speaker 1:
[25:41] I didn't work here, Soto.

Speaker 2:
[25:43] He missed 10 weeks.

Speaker 3:
[25:44] True.

Speaker 2:
[25:45] That does not mean it's that serious.

Speaker 3:
[25:46] I was a long time ago.

Speaker 2:
[25:48] But yes, Francisco Lindor, that would be the high, high end. But I think a month at least would probably be my expectation.

Speaker 1:
[25:56] Yeah. Ronnie Mauricio was recalled. He was in the lineup here on Thursday. Feels like an NL only name. Maybe he can graduate a little bit higher than that. But just a name to watch for now is Ronnie Mauricio. One short stop on Scott's sleeper hitters list for week six is Mauricio Dubon. He does have three games in course field next week. So you can consider that as a short term fix. Other shallow league replacements, there's Dansby Swanson, Andres Jimenez, Ezekiel Tovar. Medium sized leagues, Mason Wynn, Jose Fernandez. And then in the deepest of leagues, Brian Roquio, Nassim Nunez, JP Crawford. Short stop, not a great position if you lose someone to injury. There's just not really much on the waiver wire. Michael Harris.

Speaker 2:
[26:38] I would say, try to trade for Connor Griffin or JJ Weatherholt, but really Connor Griffin. He's been so bad. I don't think that'll last. I think if you're looking for Francisco Lindor-esque upside, Connor Griffin is one of the few players who might have that.

Speaker 1:
[26:53] Yeah, I have Bo Bichette as a by-law later on as well. So he still has shortstop eligibilities. Coming around a little bit, but yeah, I think you could still get him for hopefully cheaper than his draft day price. Michael Harris left Thursday's game due to left quad tightness. Hopefully he's all right. He's off to a great start. Caleb Theobar left Thursday's game with left hamstring tightness. And that came after he allowed a solo home run to blow the game in the ninth inning. My guess is that Ben Brown would be next up for the Cubs, Sase?

Speaker 3:
[27:28] I don't know, cause they do like him in more of a multi-inning role. Like I think he's talented enough to do it.

Speaker 1:
[27:36] Yeah.

Speaker 3:
[27:37] But I would guess, boy, they've already lost so many relievers cause you know, but they're down, they're down Phil Maton and Hunter Harvey, as well as being down Palencia, Jacob Webb, maybe. It will probably be a mix and match situation.

Speaker 1:
[27:54] The one thing I will point out is Phil Maton begins a rehab assignment at AAA on Friday. And for a reliever, it might not take too long for him to get back. So could be back next week. And maybe it's just Phil Maton who gets thrown into the closer mix there. Roman Anthony has missed two straight with a sore back. He's hopeful that he can return on Friday. But we said that yesterday as well. Some rehab start updates. Garrett Cole, Thursday at high A, four and a third, two runs allowed, four strikeouts to zero walks. He did allow a home run in this one. He built up the pitch counts of 52 pitches in that one. And Blake Snell, he actually started at A ball on Wednesday. He only went one inning, three hits, two runs allowed, one walk, zero strikeouts. He got up to 32 pitches. So, not a great start, but obviously his first one. It's gonna take a little bit of time for Blake Snell to get built up. Garrett Cole, the way he's trending, I think probably early to mid-May is probably when you should expect him. I believe Carlos Rodan will make his first rehab start here on Friday as well.

Speaker 2:
[28:55] With Snell, I think you should just assume the full 30-day rehab. And it started on the 22nd, I believe. So, expect something around May 20th, I would say.

Speaker 1:
[29:06] The Orioles placed Dean Kramer on the aisle with a right quad strain. They recalled Brandon Young from AAA. Just a deeper name to watch. Cade Povich's start earlier this season was very good. I believe he had a really good start in the minors as well. Got a lot of whiffs in that first start. So, he's always been a little interesting and had some prospect pedigrees. So, Cade Povich, just a name to watch there. Jack Leiter is dealing with a sore right ankle after he took a nasty spill during Wednesday's start. Kyle Teal did not begin a rehab assignment this week as initially anticipated. His right hamstring is still grabbing at him a little bit. The Phillies released Tywan Walker. So, not that it was ever really a question, but with Zach Wheeler returning this weekend, Andrew Painter will remain in the rotation, obviously.

Speaker 3:
[29:55] Because the Phillies have a ton of starting pitcher depth as everybody knows. I mean, it's a Braski really roll on the dice there on everybody staying healthy.

Speaker 2:
[30:04] If everything goes right, they're fine.

Speaker 1:
[30:08] It just speaks to how bad Tywan Walker has been.

Speaker 3:
[30:10] Oh, yeah. Yeah.

Speaker 1:
[30:12] Yeah. The Rangers placed really right.

Speaker 3:
[30:15] Like you guys probably talked about this yesterday. But how how was how was it then like, well, shouldn't every team have been in on Lucas G Alito at that price?

Speaker 2:
[30:27] Like if it was only three million. Yeah, I saw a report that like the Cubs got outbid. Yeah, they got outbid on less money than Chris Paddock got. Like, I don't think Luis Lucas G Alito is very good, but.

Speaker 3:
[30:42] Yeah. A not very good pitcher is worth more money than that.

Speaker 2:
[30:48] Yeah, I mean, I think one thing is the Phillies, I'm pretty sure, are in the luxury tax. So three million is more like, I don't know, six million or whatever. But even then, six million should not be stopping you from getting what is probably a league average starting pitcher.

Speaker 1:
[31:05] Yeah. And the Rangers place reliever Robert Garcia on the aisle with left shoulder inflammation. What is going on with these starting pitchers? Speaking of the Phillies, Christopher Sanchez got hit hard at the Cubs, five and a third innings, 12 hits, six runs allowed, two homers allowed. He still did have 14 whiffs on 99 pitches, but this is now his second start where he's allowed 11 or more hits. His BABIP is 455 so far this season. Obviously the ERA is still great, 294, but it comes with a 160 whips so far. What is going on with Christopher Sanchez?

Speaker 2:
[31:48] Partially, I think it's nothing. I think it's just one of those things that happens to ground ball pitchers from time to time.

Speaker 1:
[31:53] Yeah.

Speaker 2:
[31:55] Partially, I think it might be Trey Turner's fault. And I'm not saying that to be mean, but Trey Turner last year turned around a very long slide as a defensive player. He went from being a pretty poor defensive shortstop prior to 2025 to being one of the best defensive shortstop in baseball last year. This year, he's gone back to being pretty poor. And if that's the case, if Trey Turner's not a good defensive shortstop, I think this is a really bad defensive infield. And that's going to hurt Christopher Sanchez more than most pitchers because he is a ground ball pitcher. So that is something to watch. The Phillies somehow managed to get rid of Nick Castellanos and get worse defensively, it seems, which is hard to do. Their outfield has also been pretty bad. So, yeah, that's I think the biggest thing. But I don't know, he's got a what? 290 ERA and the XERA is sub three even with that. So I still think he's going to be fine. But maybe it's he's the eighth best pitcher in baseball instead of the fifth or fourth. OK, that's not really the worst thing in the world. But yeah, it could matter on the margins.

Speaker 3:
[33:08] Yeah, I mean, all the performance indicators, which I think is a term I've made up. But it's probably self-explanatory. All the performance indicators for Christopher Sanchez are just as good, if not better than last year. So I would not sweat it. I mean, the defense probably is bad, and that's not the best thing for a ground ball pitcher. He misses so many bats that I don't think it's going to ruin his whip as bad as it looks right now. The Phillies' best prospect is a shortstop. And I, my understanding is he's a pretty good defender.

Speaker 2:
[33:42] I don't think he's played at all this season, though.

Speaker 3:
[33:44] Yeah, he's hurt. Aiden Miller is his name. But he's about ready for a promotion. And maybe this will be his ticket to the majors once he is healthy. Is if they need a defensive upgrade, a shortstop. Maybe move Trey Turner and Bryson Stodd around.

Speaker 1:
[34:02] I think it's a good point you bring up, Chris, about the defense. I did not realize it was this bad. The Phillies are minus 19 defensive runs saved this season. Dead last in baseball. So that is not great. And might explain why Christopher Sanchez has a 455 BABIP so far when his career mark is 306. Still, the one concern I had about him is that you have seen higher whip seasons out of Christopher Sanchez in the past. So that's within his range of outcomes. I don't think it's going to be 160. Maybe it's like 120 on the high end. But obviously that would be higher than you want from your ace pitcher.

Speaker 2:
[34:37] Is the floor Framber Valdez? Well, that's still a really high floor.

Speaker 1:
[34:41] I think his ERA floor is better than Framber Valdez. I think his ERA floor is like high two.

Speaker 2:
[34:46] The floor is like a good Framber Valdez season. That's still a really awesome pitcher. Right, right, right.

Speaker 1:
[34:52] Logan Webb took a tough loss against the Dodgers. Seven innings, three runs, five strikeouts at two walks, had nine whiffs on 98 pitches. He has allowed three earned runs or more in five of six starts. So hasn't really had a lot of like lockdown, shutdown type starts so far this year. The strikeouts are down, the walks are up. Scott, what have you seen here from Logan Webb? Is there anything that actually concerns you?

Speaker 3:
[35:18] There isn't like a glaring red flag. It's just kind of, I don't want to say death by a thousand paper cuts, but there are a lot of paper cuts is what I'm seeing here with Logan Webb. And it's been a trend of it over the last few years. The strikeout numbers were actually up last year, but they were down quite a bit two years ago. And the whip has been pretty bad the last two years. And I just think it's a fine line between him being the ace we've known him to be, and being just mid-rotation innings eater in fantasy. And that's what he's looking like so far this year, which is part of the reason why I mentioned moving him down. Chris mentioned it too, moving him outside of his top 20. I have him in the 20 to 25 range now too. In Roto quite a bit higher in points leads, because he's going to give you the volume and that matters more in that format. But for Roto, we were already counting on a bad whip for Logan Webb. If the ERA is closer to 350 than not, that's going to be a disappointment. Things could turn around. I'm overstating the concern here, I feel like. But that's just what my gut is telling me at this moment.

Speaker 1:
[36:44] Yeah, as someone who rostered Logan Webb a bunch the past couple of years, thankfully, I don't have him anywhere this season. He's a frustrating pitcher to watch, because he needs to work the margins so much when he pitches. He needs to really hit his spots and live in the shadow zone when he pitches and stuff, so he just tries to nibble a lot. And if he misses, it's just like, it can kind of snowball on him fast, where he's just giving up hit after hit. It's a lot of hard contact, so he is kind of frustrating to watch. But when he's going right, obviously, he'll be better than this. One thing I noticed, his left on base percentage is just 62% so far. His career mark is 72%, so something that should regress positively as the season goes on for Logan Webb. Bubba Chandler, a rough outing here at the Rangers. At the Rangers, good venue to pitch in. No white Langford in the lineup and this is the start we get. Four innings, seven hits, six runs, three walks, four strikeouts, two homers allowed, only five whiffs on 78 pitches. Chris, this is not the worst that it could be, but close to the worst case outcome so far here for Bubba Chandler. What have you seen? What do we do? Is it just a bench? Would you consider dropping him?

Speaker 2:
[37:59] It's a bench. I cannot imagine dropping Bubba Chandler. I just you have bench spots. You know, I get that a lot of people play in daily, daily leagues where you really need to squeeze everything you can out of every roster spot. And right now you can't trust Bubba Chandler. I get that. That is frustrating. I would still try to hang on to him because I just there are not more than a handful of pitchers who have more arm talent than Bubba Chandler. And it's just a question of can they figure out how to get the most out of him. We saw it at the end of last season. We saw it at the beginning of last season. And then there was a long stretch in the middle where he was really bad. But he got to the majors and was awesome last year. The stuff is clearly phenomenal. There is no question about the quality of the stuff here. I will just bet on him figuring out the right pitches to throw in the right situations and figure out the command to at least passable levels. It has not been that yet so far. I am going to bet on the talent here. I am going to bench him. I would really hate to drop him.

Speaker 3:
[39:04] Here is testing your resolve with the benching of Bubba Chandler. Lines up for two starts next week.

Speaker 2:
[39:11] Yeah, that is really tough.

Speaker 3:
[39:12] And the matchups are Cardinals and Reds.

Speaker 2:
[39:14] I am starting in a points league. In Roto, it is tougher. I would say in anything but season long Roto, I am probably starting Bubba Chandler. In season long Roto, he is really hurting your whip, especially right now.

Speaker 3:
[39:31] I think you'd need a good alternative even in season long Roto with the two good matchups there.

Speaker 2:
[39:36] But yeah, I would say across the board, starting him in any head to head league.

Speaker 1:
[39:42] Yeah, the one thing is I don't know if it's just kind of an easy fix the command type thing, you know, Chris, because if you look at his minor league career, while in the small sample with the Pirates last year in the majors, it was great. Last year in the minors, 4.8 walks per nine, the year before 3.1, not so bad, but in 2023, 4.1, in 2022, 6.2. So it's like for most of his minor league career, the walks were a massive problem for Bubba Chandler.

Speaker 2:
[40:12] He's going to live in the 9% range, even when things are going well, I think. And that's right now he's in the 15% range. That's significantly worse.

Speaker 1:
[40:19] Yeah.

Speaker 2:
[40:20] 15% is untenable. 10 to 11% is like most Edward Cabrera seasons. And that's pretty hard to get away with. I think 9% that's below or above average, higher than average, but you can live with it with the amount of bats he's going to miss. I'm going to bet on him figuring that out, but he's got a weird arsenal because I don't know if his slider is a true put away pitch, but he uses it that way. His change up is really good, but I don't know if he has the faith to throw that in non put away situations. He throws his fastballs a lot. I think it's just Bubba Chandler is learning on the job. He's 23. He's super talented. The big thing for me is just dropping him. You're not going to get someone, I don't know, maybe Payton Tolle, right, like that. I could see an argument that Payton Tolle is a similarly talented pitcher, although I think Bubba Chandler is more talented. And so I could see the argument that Payton Tolle would be worth dropping Bubba Chandler for. I would guess you have someone more boring than Bubba Chandler to drop them.

Speaker 1:
[41:28] Yep, agreed. How about a pitcher who's actually pitching well? It doesn't feel like there's many right now, but Tyler Glasnow, he dominated the Giants, eight shutout innings, one hit, one walk, nine strikeouts. He has a quality start in four of five outings. He has gone six plus innings in all five outings. The one thing that stood out to me here is that his walks are back down. That was something that concerned me a lot coming into the season, but he's dropped the walks from 4.3 walks per nine down to 2.2 walks per nine. And looks more like the pitcher he's been for most of his career with the Dodgers. Of course, Scott, it just comes down to, when will he get hurt? Or how long will he stay healthy basically?

Speaker 3:
[42:08] Yeah, and I do think it's a win, not an if, because what's his career high in innings? Like 140?

Speaker 2:
[42:14] 134.

Speaker 1:
[42:15] Yeah, 134.

Speaker 3:
[42:15] 134. But he's pitching like an ace right now, and I mean that in every possible way. He has yet to go fewer than six innings in a start.

Speaker 2:
[42:24] And he generally doesn't. That's the thing about Tyler Glasnow is, he is not one of those guys where he's not an ace when he's out there, and that's why his innings are low. He just misses 10 starts every year.

Speaker 3:
[42:39] So there probably does come a point where it's like, okay, you just mentioned Frank, a lot of high-end pitchers are not performing well so far. Probably a lot of people out there thinking, oh man, I need a pitching upgrade. When do you consider her chopping Glasnow to avoid what seems like an inevitable injury? And I mean, obviously, his stock is surging right now. I think it's something you have to consider. Now you have to feel like you have enough pitching yourself that you can withstand the loss.

Speaker 2:
[43:15] But everyone knows that the thing is everyone knows. It's really unlikely that there's anybody in your league who's like, whoa, Tyler Glasnow is going to throw 180.

Speaker 3:
[43:23] I mean, we say that. And yet there's people asking if they can drop Josh Naylor. That's the question I've gotten most probably this year. Can I drop Josh Naylor? There's people asking. I'm trying to think of another good example. But we get examples like that all the time. The most common questions we get are like that. Are you allowing me to do this thing I obviously shouldn't do? No, I am not allowing you to do this thing you obviously shouldn't do.

Speaker 1:
[43:55] Slap on the wrist.

Speaker 3:
[43:58] And so, like, I think people, I think a... Obviously, we play with a lot of people who do this as a career, or at least trying to do it as a career. And so, they're a little more disciplined than maybe the average fantasy player is, who just wants the instant gratification that doesn't come from my 162-game, six-month baseball season. But they're seeing things are bad, they're seeing things are going well for Glasnow, and they're like, I need that on my roster instead of this. I think it's worth looking into. If you have Glasnow and you yourself are an okay shape for pitching, maybe you have an underachiever like Gare Crochet, who you still think is going to be fine in the long run. See if you can get an ace return for Glasnow. It needs to be an ace. Somebody would have drafted in round four, let's say. If you can get that for Glasnow, it's a good time to do it because there could come a point this season where his value just disappears because he's out with some injury or another.

Speaker 1:
[45:10] All right, let's take our final break. When we return, I've got some waiver wire hitters to talk about and much more right after this. Getting older comes with a lot of, oh, wow, I should probably have that figured out by now moments. And for me, life insurance was definitely one of them. I remember thinking, I'll get to it eventually, but then you hear stories about families scrambling after something unexpected happens, and it really hits you. This stuff matters. That's why I was relieved when I found Ethos. They make the whole process incredibly simple. It's 100% online, so you can get a quote in seconds, apply in just a few minutes, and even get coverage the same day. And there's no medical exam. You just answer a few straightforward health questions. You can get coverage up to $3 million with some plans starting as low as $30 a month. Plus, they work with a network of trusted carriers to help you get the best possible rate. And they've got a 4.8 star rating on Trustpilot with over 4,000 reviews, which definitely gave me peace of mind. Take 10 minutes to get covered today with life insurance through Ethos. Get your free quote at ethos.com/fbt. That is ethos.com/fbt. Application times may vary, rates may vary. If you love baseball, DirecTV is your go-to this season. DirecTV has the most MLB games in one place. It's your home for baseball all season long. You can catch all the action with access to ESPN Unlimited and MLBTV. Every strikeout, every steal, every save, all streaming live so you don't miss a single inning. You can stream games across your devices, no satellite required, and witness the action unfold across the league. With Sports Central on DirecTV, you can see your teams in one streamlined hub. Keep up with live scores and stats in real time so you can see who's up and who's down without switching apps. Never ask, what's the score again? Sign up now at directv.com. Claim based on total games carried on sports networks, sports availability varies by zip code and requires choice package. Visit directv.com for more details. Major League Baseball trademarks and copyrights are used with permission of Major League Baseball. Visit mlb.com. Welcome back in Fantasy Baseball Today. And I've got some waiver wire hitters. We'll start with some shallow league names here. Marcus Semien showing some signs of life. Two for four with his third stolen base. Over his last seven games, he's hitting 375, three steals on 944 OPS. Down to 76% rostered. So Chris, what that tells me is that people in head-to-head leagues, in shallower formats, have started dropping Marcus Semien. What do you think about his roster rate at 76%? Is that okay? You think it should still be higher?

Speaker 2:
[47:53] I think it's fine. I moved, I'm trying to load the second base rankings, but I'm fairly certain I moved Otto Lopez ahead of him. Gosh, there had to have been somebody else I moved. I did move Marcus Semien a few spots.

Speaker 1:
[48:09] I think I moved Xavier Edwards ahead of him. Xavier Edwards off the bench.

Speaker 2:
[48:11] Yeah, I think, I probably, I might have had Xavier Edwards ahead of him the whole time. But yeah, that sounds right. That sounds perfectly reasonable. I do not think Marcus Semien at this point in his career has earned the benefit of the doubt to be rostered everywhere. So yeah, I think it's perfectly fine to drop him, even if he's starting to heat up.

Speaker 3:
[48:32] I agree with that. I do want to caution everybody though. He has been a notoriously slow starter the past few years as somebody who doesn't hit the ball very hard. And we've seen how much the carry of the ball can change cold versus hot. And I think it's only been amplified with the widespread use of humidors in recent years. Since that started, Semien has been dreadful in April. And then he turns things around and really turned things around last year and then ended up missing a lot of time with a broken foot so the numbers remained down. Just something to keep in mind if you want to keep, even if you need to drop him, keep an eye on him because he might end up being a worthy starter at second base still.

Speaker 1:
[49:13] Spencer Torkelson has homered in back to back games. He went one for four with a walk off homer. Hopefully something that can spark him and get him going a little bit here. 66% rostered. So Scott, similar question that tells me shallower leagues, head to head points leagues, people are probably dropping Torkelson. What do you think of that right now?

Speaker 3:
[49:33] Yeah, I've had him as a sleeper hitter the past two weeks just because I feel like the way his roster rate, his crater doesn't make a lot of sense to me. A guy with 30 plus home runs last year, two of the last three years, right? And, you know, I said in with the kind of matchups the Tigers had this week, this might be the year he, this might be the week that we see that 30 homer power reveal itself and back to back games with a home run, feeling pretty good about that. You know, if you don't play in a league that has a corner infield spot, and maybe Torkelson doesn't need to be rostered in your league. I think that 66% number is probably fine given that, but I do think better days are ahead. And I do think, I do think in leagues that do have a corner infield spot, you'd be, it'd be kind of nuts to drop them.

Speaker 1:
[50:31] Ryan Jeffers hit a game tying grand slam in the eighth inning here on Thursday. He went one for three, also had two walks. He's off to a pretty nice start. His underlying metrics, he's hittin the ball really hard. The barrel rate looks great here for Ryan Jeffers. 57% rostered. He should be rostered in two catcher leagues. I feel like, Chris, this number is probably fine for Ryan Jeffers, someone in two catcher leagues, but I don't think we would ever use him in a one catcher league.

Speaker 2:
[51:00] Not in one catcher league unless you got injuries and there just aren't guys available. If that happened to me in one league where I had to pick up like Miguel Maia or someone because he was the most likely to play every day. But yeah, I think Ryan Jeffers is just a fringe number two catcher.

Speaker 1:
[51:16] And then I have three outfielders, Carson Bench, Homer for the first time since opening day. It was his second home run. Lots of ground balls early on here for Carson Bench. He's only hitting 159 so far. Evan Carter, two for four with an inside the park home run. Two of those in the same week, not just for Evan Carter, just like in baseball that feels like a very odd thing that doesn't happen often.

Speaker 5:
[51:40] So pretty interesting.

Speaker 3:
[51:41] And Denacci had the other.

Speaker 1:
[51:43] And Brandon Marsh is off to a great start. Three for four with a double dong, three RBI. Scott, how would you rank these three? Honestly, all three are just platoon outfielders for now, but Bench, Evan Carter and Brandon Marsh.

Speaker 3:
[51:58] I would rank them definitely Bench number one because he has the most upside. I haven't really looked at the data on Carter to see if I'm interested there.

Speaker 1:
[52:09] He's hitting the ball much harder this year. 90.5 average EV.

Speaker 3:
[52:13] But here's the thing about Brandon Marsh. He may be breaking free of the platoon. I noticed he has started to play against more lefties recently and he's done nothing. I'm sorry.

Speaker 2:
[52:25] I think he's done nothing against lefties, though.

Speaker 3:
[52:27] Well, he doesn't have many at bats. He is looking like a better player this year. His strikeout rate, which already went down a lot last year, is down even more. It's actually a pretty good strikeout rate now. And what was the other point I wanted to bring up?

Speaker 2:
[52:45] They've got six lefties on the schedule next week. Or righties on the schedule next week. That's the biggest reason I'd add Brandon Marsh. It's just you look at the upcoming schedule. If it's all righties, go ahead and add him.

Speaker 3:
[52:56] He's hitting the ball hard. His expected batting average is 285. His expected slug is 437. He's playing more against left handers. It's early and obviously there's a pretty good, pretty lengthy track record here that makes me want to bet against Brandon Marsh. But there are some signs that make me wonder, hmm, could we look back on this and say it was a career year for Brandon Marsh? Is that what this is leading up to? It's possible. So I might give him the edge over Carter, but we're talking about just for five outfielder leagues, obviously.

Speaker 1:
[53:34] All right. So other waiver wire pitchers not named Payton Tolle and Jr Ritchie. Maybe Davis Martin deserves more attention. He was up against the Dbacks here, six and a third innings, one run, seven strikeouts to one walk. That is four straight quality starts for Davis Martin, whose slider has a 60 percent whiff rate. That's pretty crazy stuff. He gets the Angels next week and Cade Cavalli racked up the whiffs here against the Braves, five innings, two runs, ten strikeouts to zero walks. He had 12 whiffs on 85 pitches, but he's just really inefficient. This is just the second time he has completed five innings. So, Chris, do you have any, I don't know, middling interest in like a Davis Martin or Cade Cavalli?

Speaker 2:
[54:24] Davis Martin gets the Angels next week. I think that's fine. I think he's useful there. I don't love him as a player, but if we look up at the end of the season and he finished with like a 380 ERA and was useful, that seems reasonable, but I don't think there's much upside there. Cavalli has at least a little bit of upside because there is some strikeout potential as we saw here, but this is kind of the first time we've actually seen the strikeout potential this season. I think before this, the most he had in the start was five. So we haven't really seen much from it. The curve ball is really good. Everything else is pretty bad. So I think Cavalli in deep leagues, maybe you can add him, but I don't see much reason to be excited here.

Speaker 1:
[55:08] All right, some signs of life from three by low hitters right now. Michael Bush, he has homered in back to back games and he homered here off of Christopher Sanchez left on left. And look, the overall numbers are still very bad. The underlying numbers are still very bad, but this is someone who just hit 34 home runs last season. Jazz Chisholm, as we mentioned, is on the board with his first home run. He hit his off of a lefty as well off of Payton Tolle. He is hitting 188 with a 556 OPS so far. And Boba Shet, three for five with a double, three RBI and his first stolen base. That double, by the way, go ahead, bases clearing double in the ninth inning. He just barely missed it.

Speaker 2:
[55:52] Like a two foot feet away.

Speaker 1:
[55:54] Yeah, just barely missed a grand slam there for Boba Shet. Scott, would you consider all three of these prime buy low options right now? Or are there any of these three that you're actually worried about? And you're like, I'd be a little tepid about buying low on them.

Speaker 3:
[56:10] I have not moved any of Michael Bush, Jazz Chisholm or Boba Shet down in my rankings at all. Now, Sal Stewart has leapfrogged Michael Bush because he's leapfrogged a bunch of first basemen. But Bush himself, I haven't moved down. I still have faith in him. He would be the only one that you might waffle on. I mean, Chisholm and Boba Shet, they're fantasy royalty. And it's probably June before I start to worry about any of them. But Bush, I think, I believe in what he did last year. And I'm viewing what he's doing now as just a slow start. And maybe he's already starting to come out of it.

Speaker 1:
[56:51] Would you guys consider Corey Seeger a by-low candidate? He just hit his sixth home run. But obviously, the batting average in OPS is lagging behind so far. If you guys could, would you try and by-low on Corey Seeger?

Speaker 2:
[57:04] Yeah, absolutely.

Speaker 1:
[57:06] The one thing I have noticed, and it's early, it's a small sample, but his strikeout rate is up and he's getting a little bit older. His strikeout rate is 26% so far. It was 20% last year. And his whiff rate the last three years has jumped from 23% to 28% to 34% so far this season. Still enough time for him to get that on track. But just something that stood out to me a little bit as a little bit of an older hitter at this point in Corey Seeger. Did you guys realize two veteran middle infielders off to good starts? To be honest, I hadn't really noticed myself, but Ozzie Albies, three for four with his fifth home run. He had four RBI in this game. And Xander Bogaerts, two for three with two walks in his fourth home run. He's hitting 289. He's also got two steals. OPS is over 800. Expected stats look really good for Xander Bogaerts. So I was encouraged by that. Scott is the opposite for Ozzie Albies. I feel like his expected stats and bat of all metrics are never really great, but they're even worse this year. So what do you think about that?

Speaker 3:
[58:14] Yeah, they're really bad. I noticed the same thing looking into him as good as his overall numbers look now. Did everything look good for Ozzie Albies? And the answer is no. Average exit velocity coming into Thursday's game 85.4 miles per hour. Normally, he's like 87, 88, which is still not very good, to your point. But this is a different level of bad. How much do I make of that for a player who I believed in coming into the year and who's actually performing? I don't know. To me, it's just kind of a curious data point right now. It's not something I'm sounding the alarm over. If it's this way all season, then that's probably a problem. But I have no way of suspecting it's going to be that all season. So I think Ozzie Albies, very few second basemen can match his upshot upside. He's actually performing. I think I'm just going to accept that for now.

Speaker 1:
[59:16] Yeah. Especially at a bad second base position, right? It's like, right. What are you going to do? Sell high on Ozzie Albies? For who? At second base, right? It's like, yeah. Why don't you just stick with a top five or six second base? He kind of reminds me of not to the same extent, obviously Jose Altuve is a future hall of famer, but we would always look at Altuve's underlying metrics and they were never good either. And he's really pulling the ball in the air. And Ozzie Albies does a lot of those same things.

Speaker 3:
[59:42] Well, it was an elite triumvirate at second base for a while. It was Albies, it was Altuve and it was Semien, Marcus Semien and they all had that same trait where they outperformed their expected stats. They just didn't hit the ball very hard, but they were, they always produced better than what the data said they should. It's just been to even more of an extreme this year with Albies so far, very small sample.

Speaker 2:
[60:09] By the way, just since we mentioned Ozzie Altuve, I don't know if we've brought it up. Have you guys noticed what's going on with Ozzie Altuve this year?

Speaker 1:
[60:18] I don't think so.

Speaker 2:
[60:19] He's got the highest walk rate of his career by a wide margin, up to 13.3%.

Speaker 1:
[60:24] I did see that actually, yeah.

Speaker 2:
[60:26] Kind of sneaky might be just about the ABS thing, that he has like a more normal strike, a more reasonable strike zone for himself. Cause I think I've seen that the data is it's a lot more called balls at the top of the zone. So, you know, that's, cause that's one of the key ways that the top of the zone is a little lower than it's been before. So, just notice that cause he's, you know, he's so tiny.

Speaker 1:
[60:56] All right, let's wrap up with some leftovers here. On the hitting side, James Wood, another one. One for four with his 10th homerun. He is homered in three straight, awesome start. CJ Abrams, also awesome start. One for three with a walk in his seventh homerun. He also has five steals, a 975 OPS. Riley Greene is coming around a little bit. He hit his second homerun. Last four games, he's got seven hits, a homer, four runs and four RBI. His expected numbers, XBA and Xslug, both better than last year under the hood. So I thought that was interesting for Riley Greene. Seiya Suzuki heating up. He is homered in three straight. This is your reminder to play Mickey Moniac at home against right-handed pitching, four for five with a double dong.

Speaker 2:
[61:42] Honestly, I wanted to write about for the waiver wire, but I think he's like 90% roster.

Speaker 3:
[61:47] Yeah, he's been to roster at all season on CBS.

Speaker 1:
[61:50] It's like 20% on Yahoo, which is where he should be roster.

Speaker 3:
[61:53] Right. I think by our rankings, it's surprising that he was that roster to begin with. But I think our projection system must have had a really favorable projection for him, which got him drafted more than we had said to. It's working out so far. We say the stardom at home against right-handed pitchers. I think the way things are going, even if the Rockies are at home just half the week, if there aren't too many lefties on the schedule.

Speaker 2:
[62:24] Yeah, I think it might be more about the lefties, but I think he's probably an average hitter at best away from home.

Speaker 3:
[62:30] Yeah, if it's a full road week, but it's hard to find that week where it's fully, I don't think the Rockies have had a week yet where they're fully at home and look how the numbers look.

Speaker 2:
[62:39] By the way, I do want to shout out in the comments Preserbius in there. He's always in there, always drops some fun stuff. Altuve is one of eight hitters who have had five successful ABS challenges in their favor so far this season. So there's not nothing there.

Speaker 3:
[62:51] Yeah.

Speaker 1:
[62:52] Thank you for that stat. Appreciate it. O'Neil Crews homered again. This one off of DeGrom, he has homered in back-to-back games. He is up to eight homers, 10 steals so far this season. Some pitching leftovers just mentioned his name, Jacob DeGrom. He was great up against the Pirates, five and two-thirds, one run, 10 strikeouts, 20 whiffs on 89 pitches. Edward Cabrera, kind of a weird start against the Phillies, seven innings, five runs, three of them earned, five walks, zero strikeouts, that's good. Also two homers allowed and didn't really have a lot of whiffs. But technically, it's a quality start, and Mike Soroka was okay against the White Sox, five innings, one run, six strikeouts to one walk, 13 whiffs on 101 pitches. I have my doubts about Soroka, but so far he's been really good, so credit to him. Scott, any thoughts here on Soroka, Edward Cabrera and Jacob deGrom?

Speaker 3:
[63:48] Yeah, a quick thought on each of them. Only one of deGrom's five starts has gone as long as six innings. So that's unfortunate. He's not getting quality starts, and that might just be the approach. Yeah, he's been, I'm not saying he's not a must start, but that does hurt him, that is less than ace-like. Edward Cabrera.

Speaker 1:
[64:10] Sell, sell, sell, sell, sell.

Speaker 3:
[64:14] So I was going to give a different take on Edward Cabrera. And what to me really concerned me was that at the start of the season, he talked about wanting to use his four seamer more, and he was using it more. And his success last year was contingent on him using it less, because he doesn't throw for strikes very often. Seems like he's gotten away from it the last two starts. Maybe he's learning. Maybe he's like, yeah, that fastball is not working well for me. Threw it just 6% of the time in this one, just 8% of the time last time. So the trend, I think, is encouraging there. I think Edward Cabrera can only be good if he is fading that four seamer. But you're saying, so, Chris, I guess, just underlying numbers.

Speaker 2:
[65:04] Yeah, I just see the 19% strikeout rate, 9% walk rate. And it's just, yeah, he hasn't. I don't think he has sustained the gains he made from last year. I was also skeptical coming in the defense. All the defense definitely helps. So, you know, but I think you look at what is a 250 ERA or something.

Speaker 3:
[65:22] My my encouragement would not be reflected in the numbers yet, because it's something I just started doing.

Speaker 2:
[65:28] That's fair.

Speaker 3:
[65:28] Yeah. And then Soroka and it has to continue, obviously, which is always the question with Edward Cabrera. And then Soroka, I mean, he's got to be rostered at this point because he's put together so many good starts. I am skeptical that it's going to last because he is. I don't remember why I didn't write it down. What made me skeptical it was going to last for Soroka?

Speaker 2:
[65:54] What I've seen is the quality of contact he's allowing is really, really bad. Like 92 mile per hour average exit velocity. He gets like a 485x Woban contact. These are disastrous numbers for a pitcher.

Speaker 1:
[66:07] He was better in this specific start.

Speaker 3:
[66:09] Yeah, that's what I mean.

Speaker 2:
[66:11] And it's 30% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate. And it's like, guys who do those two things that well are usually pretty good. I'm just not sure he can sustain both of those either.

Speaker 3:
[66:21] The expected ERA is almost five for Soroka. So, you know, I don't think any ERA estimator is gospel. But when you have one that is that much higher than ERA for a pitcher you aren't exactly sure about, I think it is a red flag.

Speaker 1:
[66:41] Would you start Soroka at the Brewers next week? He is 79% started, so started in most leagues.

Speaker 2:
[66:49] The American Family field, I think that's where the Brewers play. Has the second highest strikeout park factor of any ballpark and baseball behind Seattle. So given his skill set, I think that's, you know, they're a pretty contact heavy team. But I think given that, I think you can go ahead and start Soroka there.

Speaker 1:
[67:08] What happened with these two? Tarek Scubal not at his best against the Brewers. He did go six innings, but seven hits, four runs, five strikeouts to zero walks. I think he gave up like two runs late in that start.

Speaker 2:
[67:22] It was the seventh inning. He came back out for the seventh. He had only allowed one earned run. And then it was single, single double, got pulled. I think the all three runners scored.

Speaker 1:
[67:33] That is unfortunate. When starts go that way, it's like, you don't want to get too greedy. Like, yeah, I want the seventh inning. But at the same time, like, hey, just give me the six innings of one run ball. I love that. Joe Ryan, not great at the Mets. Six innings, seven runs, four of those earned. Two homers allowed in this one. He did have eight strikeouts to two walks. I noticed he used his four seam fastball a lot less, which that's his best pitch. Why would he go away from it? So that was kind of weird for me. But anything stood out to you guys on Scoobble or Joe Ryan?

Speaker 2:
[68:06] On the whole, I haven't seen anything to worry about with either of these guys. Scoobble's change up has not been getting the whiffs that it usually does, if I'm remembering correctly. Let me make sure on that one. But I think that's what has been happening so far. No, the change up whiff rate has been really good. Maybe it's the slider. I don't know. Something. There was something that's been happening. The four seamer. That's what it was. The four seamer whiff rate has been down. I don't see any reason to think that's to be concerned with. The velocity is down a little bit, but it's still 97 with elite movement and command and everything. So I don't see any reason to be concerned about Tarek Scoobble. Kind of the same with Joe Ryan in this one, not during the four seamer. That's always weird when you have a good one.

Speaker 3:
[68:50] And the velocity was down quite a bit in the start. So that was probably even the bigger concern.

Speaker 1:
[68:55] And it wasn't cold either. So I'm not sure why.

Speaker 2:
[68:58] But overall, I don't see much to be concerned about with Joe Ryan. He's not a guy. I've moved some pitchers ahead of him, but I have not moved Joe Ryan down yet.

Speaker 3:
[69:07] Yeah, me neither. Let's just keep an eye on the velocity, because if that becomes a recurring thing, that'll concern me.

Speaker 1:
[69:15] The left on base percentage for Joe Ryan just wanted to highlight that 52 percent in his career at 75 percent. So again, just kind of some wonky things you see this early in the season. And normally they they do normalize over time. Call to the bullpen here for the Brewers. It's not what you want. Abner Arribay got the ninth inning with the game tied. He gave up a walk off home run to Spencer Torkelson. He took the loss. Trevor McGill pitched a one, two, three, seventh inning in this one.

Speaker 2:
[69:46] So I think Angel Zerpa also gave up a run in this one. Yeah, he actually McGill bag holder.

Speaker 1:
[69:52] Yeah, he blew Zerpa had a one run lead and he gave up a run to tie the game. And then Arribay gave up the walk off in the ninth.

Speaker 3:
[69:59] So McGill has four straight appearances with no earned runs allowed. And I think just one hit given up in those four appearances. I feel like we're going to see him in the closer role again. Yeah, sooner than later.

Speaker 1:
[70:16] Definitely possible for the Phillies. Brad Keller entered in the eighth inning with the game tied facing the heart of the lineup and he gave up a solo homer. So he was used in a big spot. I think ultimately the Phillies wound up winning that game. Did I just make that up? I feel like they did. Well, nope, the Phillies wound up losing that game. So bad job, Brad Keller. For the Rockies, Victor Vodnik got the ninth with a three run lead and he did the Vodnik thing. He gave up five runs on a walk and four hits. He took his second blown save and second loss. On the other side, for the Padres, Mason Miller allowed a hit but picked up his ninth save. For the Dbacks, Paul Seawald got the ninth inning with the game tied. He allowed a three run homer. He took his third loss. On the other side, nice clean inning for Sir Anthony Dominguez. That's nice. He picked up his fifth save. For the Dodgers, their first save opportunity, Sands Edwin Diaz went to Tanner Scott. And it was a clean ninth inning for his first save. 54% rostered, so still widely available if you need a reliever or you need saves. For the Yankees, David Bednar, clean ninth for his seventh save. And for the Mets, Devin Williams came on in the ninth inning with a three run lead. Chris, you were watching this game, right? Did you notice what happened here?

Speaker 2:
[71:38] I did not see the Devin Williams save.

Speaker 1:
[71:42] So they turned out the lights in city field because they were, I guess, doing-

Speaker 2:
[71:46] Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, I did see that.

Speaker 1:
[71:47] Devin Williams' entrance. Waskar Brazaban, who was the pitcher in the previous inning for the Mets, came out because he thought he was pitching. He came back out from the dugout because he pitched the previous inning. He crossed the first base line, so then he had to pitch to the first batter, and Carlos Mendoza was not happy that this happened.

Speaker 2:
[72:06] Devin Williams had to jog back to the bullpen.

Speaker 1:
[72:09] It was just a miscommunication. But basically, Brazaban had to pitch to the first batter of the inning. He did get him out, but the point here is that Devin Williams, a lot of run on three hits, he picked up the win. It was just, I don't know how they got to that, but it's weird.

Speaker 2:
[72:24] There's been a lot of discussion of what's going on with Devin Williams. I've seen on Baseball Twitter a lot of looking into arm angles and the stuff metrics. The change up is not as good this year as it has been in the past.

Speaker 3:
[72:40] Six less inches of drop.

Speaker 2:
[72:42] Yeah, the Stuff Plus model that I saw, I think on Fan Graphs, it's gone from like a 130 to a 120. Still really good, but that's a drop. And so hopefully, I think the arm angle's been fine. The release point's been fine. So hopefully, this is fixable, but he doesn't look like himself right now. And he was pretty bad last year. You know, obviously, there were stretches where he was good, but on the whole, it was not a great year. So I don't think you can possibly have a lot of faith in Devin Williams at this point.

Speaker 3:
[73:15] Every good closer is either hurt or bad, you know? Like even Andres Munoz and Cade Smith have been.

Speaker 2:
[73:28] Yeah, Cade Smith's been a little shaky.

Speaker 3:
[73:30] Not been very good, but like, they're still second and third because there's no one else who can move into that range.

Speaker 1:
[73:37] And I think Munoz, Riley O'Brien, he's just gotta be a top three closer.

Speaker 3:
[73:40] Riley O'Brien is number nine now in my relief pitcher rankings.

Speaker 2:
[73:44] I think Munoz's worst outing was a non-save situation. I think he had like gone a few days without pitching and he gave up like four runs in a non-save situation or something like that. So, you know, there's, yeah.

Speaker 1:
[73:56] Back to the Mets, Luke Weaver has been operating as their eighth inning set up guy. He's been a little bit shaky this year as well. Obviously, he was awesome two years ago. Took a step back last year. He was tipping his pitches and had some things going on, but he has showed in the past he can be an elite reliever. So I would just watch, I would watch Luke Weaver there as the spec name. To stream or not to stream, on Friday, we have, yes, we went over this yesterday, not great options. Adrian Hauser against the Marlins. Luis Severino at the Rangers. Brian Baio at the Orioles.

Speaker 2:
[74:38] Oh boy.

Speaker 1:
[74:40] Is there anyone else that you see here?

Speaker 2:
[74:42] I could see a good start from Hauser versus Miami. Hauser in San Francisco, I think, can be pretty good. A ground ball pitcher, but.

Speaker 1:
[74:49] Tyone at the Dodgers, but he's a home run prone pitcher.

Speaker 2:
[74:52] Yeah, I don't want to do Tyone against the Dodgers.

Speaker 3:
[74:55] This seems like a streamer slayed if you have a death wish. I do not.

Speaker 1:
[75:02] So, I guess I'll just say Adrian Hauser and let's keep things moving. On Saturday, we have, look, if Kodai Senga can't do it against the Rockies in New York, their first series out of Coors Field, that's probably just it for Kodai Senga.

Speaker 3:
[75:20] I don't want to start him though. I mean, gee, as bad as his previous two outings were.

Speaker 2:
[75:25] I like him more than anybody on Friday.

Speaker 1:
[75:27] Well, let me read off everyone else on Saturday. It's not great.

Speaker 3:
[75:30] Yeah.

Speaker 1:
[75:30] Bailey Ober is at the Rays. Her mom Marquez gets the D-backs, but it's in Mexico City, so probably don't want to do that. Walbert Ureña, who looked great. He's at the Royals, but it's very small sample size with him so far. Mike Burrows gets the Yankees. Mitch Keller at the Brewers. Brady Singer against the Tigers.

Speaker 2:
[75:50] I don't hate Keller at Milwaukee.

Speaker 3:
[75:53] I could do Bailey Ober at Tampa.

Speaker 2:
[75:55] I think that's okay. I actually think Colin Ray is not bad. Just I don't like him against the Dodgers. I think in general he's okay, but not against the Dodgers.

Speaker 1:
[76:09] I do agree on Keller and Ober. I want to say Senga, but man, he's been so bad. But that, you know, Rocky's on the road.

Speaker 2:
[76:19] Look, I like that more than anybody on Friday. And I, there aren't a lot on Saturday. I like more either.

Speaker 1:
[76:26] Sunday, there's a lot going on here. We do have some like, they're just guys that should be rostered, but they're under 75%. So I'll include them here. Reed Detmers at Kansas City. I like that one. There's Araghetti, but he gets the Yankees, so it's a tough match up there. Landon.

Speaker 2:
[76:42] I like both sides of the Meijer, Landon Roop.

Speaker 1:
[76:44] Meijer and Roop. There's Kumar Rocker gets the Athletics in Texas.

Speaker 2:
[76:50] Well, that's pretty good, yeah.

Speaker 1:
[76:51] JT Ginn at the Rangers. Kyle Harrison against the Pirates.

Speaker 2:
[76:57] Don't hate Foster Griffin at the White Sox. Kyle Harrison against the Pirates, yeah. There's some legitimately decent options on Sunday that I like more than I think any of the previous two days.

Speaker 3:
[77:08] Rhett Lauder against the Tigers, I think, could very easily be a quality start. It's been a quality start machine so far.

Speaker 2:
[77:15] Dollander is the bulk pitcher on Sunday, right?

Speaker 1:
[77:22] Let's see.

Speaker 2:
[77:23] This was supposed to be a two-start week for him.

Speaker 1:
[77:25] Yeah, that should be correct.

Speaker 3:
[77:26] Two start.

Speaker 2:
[77:29] Yeah, I mean, you know.

Speaker 3:
[77:30] With the air quotes.

Speaker 2:
[77:31] Jose Quintana is the scheduled starter and he hasn't been an opener, so maybe he got pushed back to Monday. I don't know.

Speaker 1:
[77:37] No, I mean, it says undecided for Sunday, so it probably is an opener for him.

Speaker 2:
[77:43] So yeah. Dollander on the road versus the Mets would be my favorite.

Speaker 1:
[77:47] So honestly, legitimately lots of good options on Sunday. So like Reid Detmers, I think Rupp against the Marlins, Meyer at the Giants is good. Dolander at the Mets could work, especially no Lindor in the lineup.

Speaker 2:
[77:59] Rocker versus the A's on the road, or in Texas could be fine.

Speaker 1:
[78:03] Louder against the Tigers. Yeah. If you want to stream Sundays a day, man, you could load up on like three or four different names there if you want to do that. So we are going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to Fantasy Baseball Today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we will be back again next week. Bye bye.

Speaker 4:
[78:32] Paramount Podcasts. We'll do it, everything we got. Like Pineapple Express, SpongeBob SquarePants and Ghosts Free.

Speaker 3:
[78:47] Huzzah!

Speaker 4:
[78:48] Pluto TV, stream now, pay never.