transcript

Speaker 1:
[00:00] How do we predict the weather? Hi, welcome to Curious Kids Every Day. I'm Josh. How are you doing today? It's so good to hear from you. Hey, do you ever ask your parents, Is it going to rain today? I used to ask my parents that when I was a kid. And then you know what we would do? We'd turn on the TV to a channel called The Weather Channel. It would tell you what the weather in your area was going to be for the next few days. But now when my kids ask me if it's going to rain today, do I have to turn on the TV any more? Or has the technology improved? Right. I have a little weather app on my phone. And it'll tell me what the weather might be like for the next several days. Is the weather app always right? Was the weather channel always right? No. In fact, the other night, we had a really bad windstorm just out of nowhere here in Tennessee. It wasn't on the weather app earlier in the day at all. Just kind of came out of nowhere. So weather apps don't always know exactly what's going to happen next. But a lot of the time, they're pretty accurate and they even give you a percentage chance of rain. Maybe it says 30 percent or 50 percent or sometimes it'll even say 100 percent. But how does that work? How can a weather app make a guess about the future? Why are they right so often? I was thinking about this today because I got an email from a Curious Kid named Blake. Blake wondered, how do we predict the weather? Predicting the weather starts with a very simple question. What is the air doing right now? Scientists all over the world are constantly measuring things like temperature, wind, air pressure, humidity. They get all that information from a huge mix of sources. Weather stations on the ground, ships in the sea, airplanes in the sky, radars, satellites, and something called weather balloons. Do you know what a weather balloon is? Weather balloons are amazing. They float way up into the atmosphere and beam back data about what the air is doing many, many miles above our heads. Then there's radar. Radar tracks where rain and storms are moving. And satellites, they look down from space and can see enormous cloud systems stretching across whole continents. So we have all these different ways to track what's happening on Earth at any given moment. Now, weather happens because air is always moving and changing. Warm air and cold air, they behave differently. Areas of high and low pressure push air around. Water in the air can become clouds or rain or snow or storms. So predicting the weather is really about figuring out what all that moving air is about to do next. That's where meteorologists come in. Do you know what a meteorologist is? That's a scientist who studies weather. And they use something called computer models, which are basically programs built on math and physics that simulate the atmosphere and try to figure out what's likely to happen in the future. The computer crunches through millions of calculations and says, essentially, given everything we've seen, here's what will probably happen next. That's also why forecasts get fuzzier the further out you go. A one or two day forecast is usually pretty accurate, but a 10 day forecast, that's likely to change. Because a lot can change between now and 10 days from now. One small shift in wind speed or moisture can snowball into something that totally changes where a storm ends up. That's why those weather apps always show you the percentage chance of a weather event, like rain. Like when it says there's a 30% chance of rain. That means there's a 30% chance that actual measurable rain will fall where you're standing during that forecast window. And 30%? That could mean it might rain, might not rain, maybe just keep an eye on it. But if it said 80% chance of rain, well, you know that the meteorologist feels pretty certain that there will be rain. But there's still a chance it might not rain. And weather apps miss things sometimes. Meteorologists get it wrong, and that's because nothing about the weather is set in stone. Meteorologists are just really good guessers. They take all of the available information and make the best guess they can. Sometimes, they get it wrong, but more often than not, they get it right. The atmosphere is enormous and very complicated, and it's always changing. There's no way to measure every pocket of air everywhere on earth all at once. See, meteorologists, they can't see the future, but they can look at the present and make a really accurate prediction about what's going to come next. Like, for example, if you throw a baseball up in the air, can you predict what's going to happen next? Well, there's a really good chance that it's going to come right back down into your hand, right? But what if while it's up there, there's a gust of wind or a sudden earthquake beneath your feet? You can't ever truly be 100% sure of what's going to happen in the future, but you can make a reasonable prediction that the baseball will do what the baseball usually does when you throw it into the air. Usually, most of the time, but not quite always, it's going to come right back into your hand. Now, imagine you have a lot of expensive tools to track that baseball and complicated computer models that project out the exact speed and trajectory of the ball based on previous throws. That's what it's like to be a meteorologist. It's a lot of complicated tools for a very complicated job. But part of that job is making it sound very simple to us. There's a 30% chance of rain tomorrow. A lot of science and math went into that very simple statement. And that is how meteorologists predict the weather. And that's the weather report. Now back to our regular scheduled programming. OK, let's have a quick quiz. What tool helps meteorologists see where rain and storms are moving? It's called radar. And are weather forecasts usually more accurate one day ahead or ten days ahead? Usually one day ahead, because a lot less can change between now and tomorrow versus now and ten days from now. What do we call a scientist who studies weather? We call that person a meteorologist. Let's play true or false. True or false? Satellites can look down at Earth from space and help track clouds. That's true. That's one way we predict the weather. True or false? A 30 percent chance of rain means it will rain for 30 percent of the day. No, that's false. True or false? Weather prediction uses measurements from tools and computer models. That's true. True or false? Scientists can measure every tiny bit of air everywhere on Earth at all times. No, that's false. Would you rather be a meteorologist or be able to make it rain? It would be cool to be able to make it rain, but I think I would like to be a meteorologist. That sounds like a really fun job. Let's play What Am I? What am I? I float high into the sky. I carry instruments to measure things. And I help you know what the air is like high above the ground. What am I? I am a weather balloon. So much goes into predicting the weather. I am amazed by it. Have you ever thought about being a meteorologist? I think that sounds like such a cool job. You get to look at computer models all day and help make predictions and explain how weather works to other people. That just sounds really neat. And if you found this episode interesting, maybe one day you could become a meteorologist. What kind of question do you think we'll ask tomorrow on Curious Kids Every Day? I can't wait to find out. So until then, keep asking questions and stay curious, kids. And we've got some birthdays today. Today is Janssen's birthday. Janssen is from North Carolina and Janssen is turning four. Happy birthday, Janssen. Bowden is from Dubai and Bowden is turning six. Happy birthday, Bowden. Cooper is from Washington and Cooper is turning five. Happy birthday, Cooper. And it's Edison's birthday today. Edison is from Montana. Happy birthday, Edison. Bonnie is from Scotland and Bonnie is turning six. Happy birthday, Bonnie. Ryan is from Melbourne, Australia and Ryan is turning six. Happy birthday, Ryan. Desmond is from Massachusetts and Desmond is turning five. Happy birthday, Desmond. Milo is from Utah and Milo is turning five. Happy birthday, Milo. Teo is from Vancouver, Canada and Teo is turning five. Happy birthday, Teo. Leo is from Connecticut and Leo is turning five. Happy birthday, Leo. Harper is from Oregon and Harper is turning six. Happy birthday, Harper. Sebastian from California has a birthday this week too. Sebastian is turning five. Happy birthday, Sebastian. To all the grownups listening, if you're Curious Kid wants their birthday mentioned on the show, please visit supportcuriouskids.com and join the Curious Kids Club. That's supportcuriouskids.com. See you tomorrow.