transcript

Speaker 1:
[00:02] It's the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day.

Speaker 2:
[00:10] Hey everyone, this is Ross Jackson, one of the hosts of the Locked On Podcast Network. If your group chat's been a little quiet lately, I want to invite you to come and join ours. If you sign up for the Everydayer Club, you get access to the members only group chats for your favorite teams, plus national chats for every sport. Personally, I love watching folks talk a little smack in the NFC South Trash Talk chat. You also get an ad-free version of your favorite Locked On show and a whole lot more. You can check it out by tapping the Everydayer Club link in the show notes.

Speaker 3:
[00:42] It's Christmas morning, and you're all excited to open your present, but there's a catch. There's no present for you today, but if you can wait until tomorrow, there's even more gifts under the tree.

Speaker 4:
[01:00] You are Locked On Bills, your daily Buffalo Bills podcast, part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day.

Speaker 3:
[01:11] What's up Bills Mafia, it's Joe Marino. On today's episode, we're reacting to what the Bills did or I guess didn't do in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft. Of course, the Bills made no selections. They traded back and then traded back again and then traded out of the first round. If you remember our very first draft conversation for this cycle, the prevailing thought that I had at the time was that the Bills needed to trade out of the pick. And our last conversation that we had before the draft, my prevailing thought was unless KC Concepcion is there, you got to trade back. And that's exactly what Brandon Beane did on Thursday night. This is a draft that the Bills entered with more needs than they've had in a long time. And we had a conversation earlier this week about what rostering rookies and how many players the Bills could roster. And on the conservative low end, I said seven. On the aggressive side, I said 13. The Bills entered this draft 26th in draft capital. Every pick in the draft has a point value assigned to it. And when you added up all the picks that the Bills had the value assigned to it, they were 26 out of 32 teams in the NFL. Staring at needs at interior defensive line, linebacker, edge rusher, needing verticality at receiver, corner depth, offensive tackle depth. You have future needs you'd love to get ahead of at interior offensive line and safety, punter, fullback. There's a lot for this team to figure out. And the value just wasn't there at 26, at least in my opinion. I've studied this draft class, I put out a draft board, and when Casey Concepcion went to the Browns at pick 24, it got cleaned out in terms of players you felt like you had to stay there and get. And Beane leveraged that into more draft capital. And I know that there's some that are disappointed. You stayed up late on a Thursday, wanted to know who the Bills first round pick is and you don't get one. I understand the level of disappointment that can come with that, but I do feel like trading out was the right move because there wasn't a player that I had to stay there and get. And I'm very intrigued and excited about the possibilities that exist on Friday and Saturday, now that the Bills have even more draft capital to address these needs. So Beane traded three times. Let's talk about those specific trades and then later on I'll talk about my favorite targets in that pick 35 and 66 and what this could all look like. But the first trade was with the Houston Texans. The Bills traded out of pick 26. They moved back to 28. The Bills get 28, 69 and 167 for 26 and 91. And as I've discussed, there's a point value associated with every pick. According to the Rich Hill Trade Chart, the Bills gave up 267 points in draft capital and they gained 289 points in draft capital. So they netted 22 points, which is the equivalent of pick 124, which is a fourth rounder. Then the Bills were scheduled to pick at 28. And they traded that pick to the Patriots. They sent 28 to New England for 31 and 125. So they moved back from 28 to 31 and get 125. So the Bills give up 209 points in draft capital. They gained 211 points in draft capital. They net two points, which is the equivalent of pick 233, which is a seventh round pick. Then they're on the clock at 28. Or 31, after they traded out of 28. And they do a deal with the Titans. In exchange for picks 3169 and 165, the Bills got 35, 66 and 101. So they give up 270 points in draft capital. They gain 280 points in draft capital, which is a net of 10 points, which is the equivalent of pick 157, which is in the fifth round. So overall, in terms of the picks the Bills entered with versus the picks they left with, they gain 34 points in draft capital, which is the equivalent of pick 101, which is a late third, early fourth round selection. They now own picks 35, 66, 101, 125, 126, 167, 168, 182 and 220. They've got a bunch of picks to make or have the opportunity to make or leverage for trades up on Friday and Saturday. And while you love to sit there and say, let's get the premium player at 26. Let's get that difference maker at 26. Who was it? Who is the player? The same players that I hope the bills pick at 35 are the ones I hope they picked at 26 and then at 28 and then at 31. One player came off the board that I was hopeful that the bills would draft and that was Keldrick Hulke. The same cast of characters that I was hopeful at 26 that were on the board at 26. Concepcion didn't make it to 26 and I wouldn't have traded up for him. I don't really believe in trading up in the first round unless you love a quarterback and you don't have a quarterback. So this is aligning with how I perceive the Bills should attack this draft. Obviously, the receipts are pretty obvious in terms of how I've discussed this draft for the last few months. Again, I know there's some that are disappointed. You stayed up, you wanted to see a player picked, you didn't get one. But I have good news. You're going to get even more on Friday and Saturday. All right, coming up next, I want to talk about my favorite targets at 35, my favorite targets at 66, and talk about how this can unfold the rest of the way. So folks, be sure to stick with me. The NFL draft is here and every pick is a tradable moment on Kalshi. Will the Bills pick Christen Miller in the second round? Well, you've got to find out, but Kalshi is going to give you an opportunity to get in on this live market. Kalshi, you're trading against peers in a live market, meaning there's no house, and as the probability changes, you can buy in and out of your position. Trade the pick, the gain, and more on Kalshi. For a limited time, download the Kalshi app and use code LOCKEDON to get $10. When you trade 10, K-A-L-S-H-I, Kalshi, trade on anything. 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That's homechef.com/locked On NFL for 50% off your first box and free dessert for life. homechef.com/locked On NFL must be an active subscriber to receive free dessert. The NFL Draft is here where preparation meets opportunity and every decision matters. It's all about being ready when your moment comes. And that same mindset applies off the field too. That's where Rugiet comes in. Rugiet offers treatments designed to help you feel ready and confident when it matters most. Their top option, Rugiet Ready, is a mint that dissolves under your tongue with clinically proven ingredients. It works quickly, often in about 15 minutes and can last up to 36 hours. And they also offer GoLong, designed to help with both performance and control. It's all about showing up at your best whenever your moment is. Head to rugiet.com/lockedonnfl and get 15% off your ED treatment. That's rugiet.com/lockedonnfl for 15% off. Rugiet, performance medicine for men. All right. Welcome back, folks. So the Bills now own picks 35 and 66 on day two, not to mention 101 and 125 and 126 and 167 and 168 and 182 and 220. But scheduled currently to pick twice on Friday night. Like I said in the first segment, the players I was hopeful at 26, a lot of them are still there. My favorite, of course, is Christen Miller, the interior defensive lineman out of Georgia. I think he can give you the nose tackle, but also versatility to play the five technique. It frees up Dianne Walker to be more versatile. I think he's got a pass rush profile. And at pick 35, I think the value is just outstanding. I would have been fine with him at 26, at 35, plus all the other things the Bills got done. I'd love it. I'd be a big fan of Caden McDonald, the nose tackle out of Ohio State. Big, dancing bear, lateral mobility, plays with his hair on fire. He's a ton of fun. I don't think he gives you as much versatility as you get with Christen Miller, but don't sleep on him. I think he's an A-plus run defender. I think that Jacob Rodriguez, the linebacker out of Texas Tech, is certainly in play. There was some rumblings and some buzz that he was a target for the Bills at 26, and now it's 35. I think Jacob Rodriguez is a playmaker, right? I mean, go back and listen to the podcast that I did, kind of previewing him and some other linebackers. He racks up the splash plays. He's a pretty firm downhill player. The range, the coverage ability is outstanding. You wish he had a little more functional strength. You wish he had a little bit more length, but he's a playmaker, and obviously the Bills have a huge need at inside linebacker. CJ. Allen, the linebacker out of Georgia, is there, a guy that you can trust to come in and be the green dot player for your defense, known for leadership and getting everyone lined up. He ran a 4-4-7 at his pro day. No, I don't think that showed up on tape, but it certainly gets me intrigued. I love Anthony Hill out of Texas. I don't know if the Bills are in on him. We haven't heard much interest, but I actually have a late first round, early second round grade on him. So I think there's some really intriguing players at interior defensive line and at linebacker when it comes to edge rushers. Gabe Akis out of Illinois. I love him. I think he can perfectly play that five technique role that I think is kind of missing for this Bills defense, but also do some stand up stuff. Wide receiver, I do think Denzel Boston is in play, and I like Denzel Boston. I don't love him for the Bills because I don't think he's necessarily the type of receiver that Josh Allen is most successful with. But I do think he has a chance to be a good ex-receiver in the NFL. And obviously, things are discouraging with Keon Coleman. If you were to pick Denzel Boston, I think it prompts you moving on from Keon Coleman. I don't know if the Bills will do that or not, but I think Denzel Boston is a good player. I'd prefer him for a different team. But if the Bills went receiver, I think the Bills have certainly done some work on him, and I think it's something we need to be mindful of and prepared for it to be a realistic situation. But I think the opportunity to get an interior defensive lineman, an edge rusher or a linebacker at 35, I think the Bills will have some options they like. Then you get to pick 65. And I think about wide receiver Skyler Bell out of Yukon, gives you a ton of speed. Same with Bryce Lance out of North Dakota State and Ted Hurst out of Georgia State. There's some vertical presences at receiver that I think you'll get at 66, which I think is what's missing from the Bills Receiver Corps. I just don't think they have verticality. There's some players here that can do that, that can provide that right away and then in time, become more of a high volume part of the offense. I think some of the nose tackles make a lot of sense at 66, whether that's Lee Hunter out of Texas Tech or Dominique Orange out of Iowa State. Now, I think those are drop offs from Miller and McDonald, which is supposed to be the case when you're talking about a target at 35 versus 66. But those are your classic run stuffers, space eaters, two gappers. That's a role in this defense. The Bills could fill it with one of those players. I think about Grayson Halton out of Oklahoma, guy that could play that five technique role. Obviously, the Bills secondary coach or corners coach, J.Valai, was the defense coordinator at Oklahoma while he was there. I think that could make some sense. Then there's linebackers, Josiah Trotter out of Missouri. How about him at 66? I love that. That dude's a hammer. Jake Gaulday out of Cincinnati, a ton of size and athleticism and intriguing ability to play in space. I think there's some corner depth options. Julian Neal out of Arkansas, Malik Mohammed out of Texas. Both players the Bills have visited with. That would be a massive boost when it comes to the corner depth, which is a massive concern right now. I think there's some really good opportunities. You can come away with Christian Miller at 35 and Josiah Trotter at 66. I'd be ecstatic. What if you went Jacob Rodriguez at 35 and Dominique Orange at 66? What if you went Caden McDonald at 35 and Skylar Bell at 66? There are so many ways for this to work out pretty well for the Bills. I'm excited to see what those combinations or what that combination looks like. Not to mention, you could trade up. I think the Bills will pick a player at 35. But could they move up from 66? Sure. To have two second round picks, that's totally possible. What about moving up from 101? Could the Bills, and they've actually done this trade before, like the Dawson Knox trade, they traded two fours to get into the third round. Could they send 101 and 126 and pick again in the 80s? Totally possible. And they'd still have a fourth round pick. And two fives, a six and a seven. So I think Beane has obviously punted on a first round pick, but folks, the NFL draft is about value. If you don't have a first round grade, it's not optimal to pick a player in the first round. I think Beane told you loud and clear after training back twice and then eventually out of the round that he didn't have a first round grade. Do you want him to sit there and reach for somebody? Is that, would that make you happy? It's all about value, getting appropriate value for your picks. Now, if you want to debate, okay, the evaluation process and if there should have been a first round grade, well, that's a different conversation. But I think there's a good chance the first round grades were cleaned out. And so Beane said, okay, let's go and maximize these picks by getting more picks and more chances to get players right and more chances to fill needs. And I'm sure they will have a second round grade that they will pick a 35. The sweet spot of this draft to me has always been rounds two, three and four. Now the Bills pick one, two, three, four, five times in rounds two, three and four when they were only scheduled to pick twice entering the event. So again, I get it, no first round pick, but I think it was the smart, right, responsible thing to do. I've had a lot of criticism for Brandon Beane this off season. I have, this is not a spot where I personally find criticism, but again, you can interpret it how you want. I hope that you don't listen to this podcast in hopes of just agreeing with me all the time. That's boring, it's football. It's not that serious. I wanna share my thoughts on things, the way I see it and how I feel. And if you see it differently, okay, I'd love to hear from you. Leave a comment in the YouTube, you know, let me know how you feel about it. But I'm totally down with what happened. Now, I'm excited to see where this goes. Yeah, I feel like the needs and the picks and the prospects at all should lead to coming out of this stretch on Thursday or Friday and Saturday with a lot of boxes checked. And without doing these trades, there'd be less boxes checked. But I do have a feeling that Beane will probably find an opportunity to move up maybe once or twice a year and go and get some of his targets that he likes in this range. All right, folks, we'll see how it goes. We will obviously do a podcast after Friday night, hopefully talking about a couple of new Buffalo Bills players that we're excited about. I could help this team and infuse this roster with some young talent. All right, folks, that's going to do it for us here today. Thanks for being here. As always, I kindly ask that you share, subscribe, rate and review. Have a great rest of your day. Go Bills! And I look forward to catching up with you again real soon.