transcript

Speaker 1:
[00:12] It's Thursday, the 23rd of April. Welcome to The PDB Afternoon Bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, a new analysis warns the US may be running dangerously low on key munitions after weeks of fighting with Iran, raising concerns about how prepared the US is if this conflict reignites or something bigger breaks out. I'll have the details. Later in the show, a glamorous California socialite is accused of secretly running a global arms network for Iran, brokering massive weapons deals while living a jet-set lifestyle in the US. And it's not often that I do stories on glamorous California socialites, so stand by. But first, today's afternoon spotlight. As diplomacy hangs by a thread with Iran, as opposed to Iran hanging protesters, which they do, and the potential for another round of fighting is still a distinct possibility, a new analysis is showing that the US military may be running dangerously low on some key munitions. The study from the Center for Strategic and International Studies takes stock of the weapons that America's burned through during the first 39 days of the Iran campaign before the ceasefire took hold. And while the headline is not that the US is about to run out of ammunition entirely, the report does make one thing very clear. Some of the high-end missiles that make modern warfare possible have been used at a very high rate, and replacing them will take years, not months. Now an important note here, the exact size of US weapons stockpiles is classified. What CSIS is working with are informed estimates based on defense budget data, production records, and known usage in past conflicts. The report focuses on seven critical munitions, and they fall into two broad categories, long-range strike weapons and missile defense interceptors. We'll start on the long-range strike side. First, the Tomahawk, the long-range cruise missile launched from Navy ships and submarines. Its importance is simple, it allows the US to hit targets from far away without putting pilots directly into harm's way. In the opening stages of a war when enemy air defenses are still intact and the skies are still dangerous, these missiles are critical. According to the analysis, the US may have fired more than 850 Tomahawks in the Iran fight alone out of an estimated pre-war inventory of around 3,100. Then there's the JASSM, the JASM, or Joint Air to Surface Standoff Missile. This is an air-launched stealth missile carried by bombers and other aircraft. Like the Tomahawk, it's designed to strike from a safe distance, but it's especially useful against heavily defended targets because of its range and low observability. The report estimates the US may have used more than 1,000 of them in the war. That's a major drawdown from a pre-war inventory estimated at roughly 4,400. Next is the Precision Strike Missile, or PRSM. This is fired by army launchers like the Highmars system and gives ground forces the ability to hit targets deep behind enemy lines. It's important because it gives the army its own long-range punch without relying entirely on ships or aircraft. But this is also one of the most concerning areas in the report because PRSM is a relatively new system and inventories were already limited. CSIS estimates the US had only about 90 before the war and may have used 40 to 70 of them. Now to the defensive side of the equation, where the numbers get even more uncomfortable and where the media has spent weeks zeroing in on just how strained these missile defense stockpiles have become. The SM-3 is a ship launched interceptor built to destroy ballistic missiles in flight. It's not for drones or cheap rockets. This is for knocking down the kind of high-end missile threats that can threaten bases or cities and major military assets. The US reportedly had about 410 before the war and may have used between 130 and 250. Then there's the FAD system, which stands for Terminal High Altitude Air Defense. This is a ground-based system designed to intercept ballistic missiles at high altitude. It's one of the few tools America has for dealing with more advanced missile attacks and there's no easy substitute for it. The US is estimated to have had only about 360 interceptors before the war, with 190 to 290 potentially used during the conflict this past month. And finally, Patriot. Well, this is perhaps the best known missile defense system in the American arsenal. Patriot batteries are used to defend troops and bases and key infrastructure against aircraft, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles. They're in high demand, not just for the US, but for allies around the world, including Ukraine. The report estimates the US had roughly 2,330 Patriot interceptors before the war and may have used up to around 1,500 of them. Now the good news, the US still has enough munitions to continue fighting Iran under a plausible range of scenarios. But the bad news is that these are the weapons America would also use if needed in a larger future conflict, especially against China in the Pacific in the event things go completely sideways. And rebuilding these stockpiles is painfully slow. Depending on the munition, delivery timelines range from roughly 42 months to as long as 64 months, which doesn't exactly seem like an efficient manufacturing and delivery process. So the lesson here is not that America is out of ammo. It's that modern war burns through very expensive, very sophisticated missiles at a fast pace. And the Defense Industrial Base still can't replace them quickly enough. The ceasefire may have paused the fighting with Iran, but this new report is a reminder that the next war could arrive before America's shelves are fully restocked. All right, coming up next, federal agents arrest a woman accused of running a massive sanctions-busting arms operation for Iran, all while living comfortably and quietly in a Los Angeles suburb. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, many of you may know me as the host of The Presidents Daily Brief. In fact, I hope you do know me as the host of The PDB. But I'm also a business owner, have been for years. 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Speaker 2:
[09:01] No one goes to Hank's for his spreadsheets. They go for a darn good pizza. Lately, though, the shop's been quiet. So Hank decides to bring back the $1 slice. He asks Copilot in Microsoft Excel to look at his sales and costs and help him see if he can afford it. Copilot shows Hank where the money's going and which little extras make the $1 slice work. Now, Hank says, I'll line out the door. Hank makes the pizza, Copilot handles the spreadsheets. Learn more at m365copilot.com/work.

Speaker 3:
[09:31] Hey, Bill O'Reilly here. Please check out my new interview series, We'll Do It Live. Each Thursday, I sit down with the most influential people in America for a no-spin chat, no script, anything could happen. You can find We'll Do It Live on billoreilly.com, YouTube, or wherever you download your podcasts.

Speaker 1:
[09:58] Welcome back to The PDB Afternoon Bulletin. What looked like a jet-set lifestyle in Los Angeles is now being described by federal prosecutors as a covert operation tied to Iran, centered on one woman accused of brokering weapons deals for the regime, all while operating in plain sight. Authorities say the woman, Shamim Mafi, a 44-year-old legal US resident, was arrested at Los Angeles International Airport, bringing an abrupt end to what prosecutors describe as a years-long operation tied directly to Tehran. Here's what stands out right away. This wasn't trench coats and back alleys, whatever that means. This was all happening under a luxury lifestyle. Look as an aside, I, for one, never wore a trench coat while engaged in covert or surreptitious activities for the CIA, and I rarely hang out or hung out in back alleys. I doubt many high-end arms dealers are hanging out in alleyways and sporting trench coats. It's probably a holdover saying from the Maltese Falcon days, but I digress. According to prosecutors, Mafi had been living comfortably in Los Angeles for nearly a decade, traveling internationally, running what appeared to be legitimate business ventures and presenting herself as a global entrepreneur. At times, she was operating out of her townhouse in an affluent neighborhood near the Santa Monica Mountains, posting on Facebook and posing in front of a Mercedes Benz. But behind that image, prosecutors say she was helping move weapons across borders on behalf of Iran while maintaining a foothold inside America. And according to the 69-page federal criminal complaint, she wasn't loosely connected to the regime. She was plugged into it. Prosecutors allege Mafi functioned as a proxy for Iranian intelligence, coordinating with senior figures tied to Iran's Ministry of Intelligence and political leadership. At one point, she was even married to an Iranian intelligence officer. Really? Well, I don't know, but that should have been a clue. Court documents show she became a lawful permanent US resident, oh good, in 2016. Sounds like some solid background checking going on there. Between 2021 and 2024, she was traveling frequently, crossing in and out of the country, where she was regularly interviewed by customs and border protection agents, and at times openly acknowledged her ties to the regime. Seriously. Investigators say Mafi told CBP she understood how Iran evaded sanctions and laundered money. She claimed her work that involved arranging shipments of medical aid to African countries through the Gulf gave her this insight. It's a cover story, prosecutors say, for her operation. One of the centerpiece allegations involves a more than $70 million deal to supply Iranian made drones to Sudan, which of course has been locked in a brutal civil war. Prosecutors say the deal included guided bombs, drone control systems and training, essentially a full service military supply package. Investigators say Mafi was also involved in proposals to move massive quantities of weapons, tens of thousands of rifles, including one offer for 70,000 AK-47s along with 1,000 rocket launchers, half a million rockets and millions of rounds of ammunition. She's also accused of brokering shipments of aerial bombs and tens of thousands of bomb fuses tied to the IRGC. Prosecutors say Mafi relied on a network designed to avoid detection. They alleged she operated through multiple front companies, including one called the Atlas International Business LLC, and a similarly named entity in Oman, routing payments through foreign exchange and cash transfer channels in countries including Turkey and the UAE. In a 2025 WhatsApp exchange, investigators say she sent a video showing crates packed with US dollars, later claiming she received $2 million tied to one of the deals. Again, that would be considered another clue. Just a year earlier, she'd been appointed a role in the Iranian presidential campaign of Mohammed Bakr Ghalibov, a former IRGC Brigadier General who serves as Speaker of Parliament. Mafia apparently had so little regard for the abilities of US law enforcement that she decided she could just operate in plain sight, which she did, dropping clues, by the way, all over the place that never got picked up until now. And that, my friends, is the PDB Afternoon Bulletin for Thursday, the 23rd of April. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdbatthefirsttv.com. And to listen to the show ad free, you can do that. It's very simple. Just become a premium member of The Presidents Daily Brief by visiting pdbpremium.com. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back tomorrow. 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