transcript

Speaker 1:
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Speaker 2:
[00:30] This podcast is sponsored by Talkspace.

Speaker 3:
[00:32] Last year, I went through many different life changes. I needed to take a pause and examine how I was feeling in the inside to better show up for the ones who need me to be my best version of myself.

Speaker 2:
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Speaker 3:
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Speaker 2:
[01:11] Talkspace works with most major insurers and most insured members have a $0 copay. No insurance, no problem. Now get $80 off your first month with promo code SPACE80 when you go to talkspace.com. Match with a licensed therapist today at talkspace.com. Save $80 with code SPACE80 at talkspace.com.

Speaker 4:
[01:36] Hello, everyone, I'm Kimberly Adams. Welcome back to Make Me Smart, where none of us is as smart as all of us. Last month, the labor force participation rate in the US fell to the lowest level it's been since 1977, aside from the pandemic. The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the working age population that's either working or looking for work. And that decline tells us an important story about the economy. It's partially due to demographic change, but it's also a direct effect of President Trump's immigration crackdown. So today, we're going to get into the big picture impact that immigration policies have been having on the labor market and what the latest research is showing about how this is playing out under this round of the Trump administration in particular. Here to make us smart about this is Chloe East. She's an associate professor of economics at the University of Colorado Boulder. Chloe, welcome to the show.

Speaker 5:
[02:32] Thank you so much for having me, Kimberly.

Speaker 4:
[02:34] Now, I should start by saying, this is not your first time looking at the impact of immigration crackdowns on the labor force. Can you talk a little bit about some of the work you've done on this in the past?

Speaker 5:
[02:46] That's right. So I actually started trying to understand the impact of mass deportations on the labor market in the first Trump administration. And my collaborators and I really wanted to understand, was the political claim that mass deportations would create more job opportunities for US born workers bearing out in the data. And so to answer that question, we turned to the last mass deportation campaign in the modern US era, which happened during the first Obama administration. And we studied an Obama era policy that's called Secure Communities to understand if the rollout of this policy led to more job opportunities for US born workers. And what we found very clearly is that the political rhetoric does not bear out in the data. And instead, what we find is that mass deportations are harmful for the labor market as a whole, including reducing job opportunities for US born workers.

Speaker 4:
[03:54] Can you walk me through the logic? Why do people think that increasing deportations would increase opportunities for work for US born workers, and why does that not happen?

Speaker 5:
[04:07] Right. So the logic comes from very simple supply and demand economics model, where if we have fewer workers in the labor force, because of mass deportations, that should free up jobs for US born workers. But the reality is that's not how our labor market works. It's not a fixed pie that is distributed among immigrant workers and US born workers. But instead, it's much more dynamic. And when there is a big reduction in the availability of immigrant workers, that actually reduces demand from firms for US born workers. So, the most obvious example for people who will be familiar with this in their communities is that at a construction site, construction site laborers are typically immigrants and undocumented immigrants, whereas the architects, the electricians, the construction site managers are typically US born workers. And so, when a construction firm has a hard time finding construction site laborers because of heightened ICE activity, they're going to reduce the number of construction sites and the number of new builds that they do. And that actually reduces demand for architects, for electricians, for construction site managers. All of these are jobs that are typically taken by US born workers. There is a second mechanism that I want to make sure we touch on at least briefly, which is when ICE activity increases in a local area, that reduces economic activity broadly in that area. It causes people to stay home, not eat out at local restaurants, not get haircuts, not shop at the grocery store. And that depression of economic activity leads to production and demand for all jobs, including jobs for US born workers.

Speaker 4:
[06:10] And I guess we're certainly seeing that play out in Minnesota, right?

Speaker 5:
[06:14] Absolutely. So we've seen this depression in economic activity in lots of the places that ICE has targeted in 2025 and 2026. We see that in Minnesota. There were lots of stories about that happening in Los Angeles in summer 2025. I know there are social media posts going around in Los Angeles, asking people to still go out and support immigrant run businesses, because people were fearful of going to those businesses when ICE activity was heightened in Los Angeles. And so we are certainly seeing this play out in the second Trump administration.

Speaker 4:
[06:54] What do you think, I mean, I understand the similarities between what happened in the Obama administration and to some extent the first Trump administration. But what's different this time around?

Speaker 5:
[07:06] What we see really clearly is that the scale of ICE arrests is unprecedented. We saw a 170% increase in ICE arrests following Trump's second inauguration, whereas his first term only had a 43% increase in arrests. But it's not just contained to the scale, it's also the methods that ICE is using. So in the second Trump administration, we're seeing much more reliance on what we're calling community arrests. And so these are arrests that happen out in the community. So places like workplaces, residences, courthouses, all of these places that traditionally have not really been a target for ICE, now are about half of the arrests in the second Trump administration are happening through this community arrest method. And that is really stark and new in the second Trump administration compared to the last 10 years.

Speaker 4:
[08:15] We're going to have more on this with Chloe East. After we take a quick break, we'll be right back.

Speaker 2:
[08:29] This podcast is sponsored by Talkspace.

Speaker 3:
[08:31] Last year, I went through many different life changes. I needed to take a pause and examine how I was feeling in the inside to better show up for the ones who need me to be my best version of myself.

Speaker 2:
[08:44] When you're navigating life's changes, Talkspace can help. Talkspace is the number one rated online therapy, bringing you professional support from licensed therapists and psychiatry providers that you can access anytime, anywhere.

Speaker 3:
[08:56] Living a busy life, navigating a long-distance relationship, becoming a first step father, Talkspace made all of those journeys possible. I could speak with my therapist in the office. I could speak with my therapist in the comfort of my home. I was never alone.

Speaker 2:
[09:11] Talkspace works with most major insurers and most insured members have a zero dollar copay. No insurance, no problem. Now get $80 off your first month with promo code SPACE80 when you go to talkspace.com. Match with a licensed therapist today at talkspace.com. Save $80 with code SPACE80 at talkspace.com.

Speaker 6:
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Speaker 4:
[09:57] All right, we are back with economics professor Chloe East. Your research jumped out to me years ago because you did a paper showing that when there are immigration crackdowns, one of the groups that often feels it the most is actually native born US women, and often like middle class women in particular. Why is that?

Speaker 5:
[10:20] One of the sectors that has historically been very reliant on immigrant labor is caregiving. We see this both for child care and for elder care, that many care workers are foreign born in the US. And because of that, when there is heightened ICE activity, when there is a mass deportation campaign, it makes it much harder for people to find affordable child care. Because again, either those workers, the child care workers have been removed from the labor market or are fearful about having a job, because having a job means leaving your home and leaving your home puts you at risk of interacting with ICE. And so what our work finds is that when there is an increase in deportations, that increases the cost of child care and reduces the availability of child care. And that causes families, mostly mothers, to have to make a tough decision about whether they want to continue working outside the home or stay home and do child care work themselves. And what we find is that many women choose to leave the labor market and take care of their children when there is an increase in deportations because of that.

Speaker 4:
[11:50] And you did that research years ago. How is that phenomenon playing out now? And I know the numbers are kind of early, but what are you seeing?

Speaker 5:
[12:00] Yes. So again, we did that research during the first, or studying the first Obama administration. In terms of what we're seeing so far in the second Trump administration, some early data indicates that child care prices are increasing in places where ICE has been very active. And in those same places, the labor force participation of women with young kids is falling.

Speaker 4:
[12:31] I know you've been mainly looking at data, hard data. But I mean, are you talking to people as you're going about and doing this research? What are you hearing from folks?

Speaker 5:
[12:43] Yes. So what I have documented in the hard data in 2025 has really been borne out in conversations that I've had in my community here in Colorado. I have heard from lots of business owners that they are having a hard time finding workers to do important jobs and that their workers are not showing up to their job site when there are reports of ICE in Colorado. And additionally, we have seen and I am hearing reports of people being fearful to leave their homes, not just to go to work, but also to go to school. So in addition to being a researcher, I am also an educator, and I and my colleagues have seen reductions in the attendance in our classes when there are reports of ICE around Denver and around Boulder. So we are really seeing the economic effects of this in real time, and also the chilling effects that this is having on our communities and our workers and our students.

Speaker 4:
[13:58] Why do you think the narrative persists that these immigration crackdowns would help American workers when there is so much data saying the opposite?

Speaker 5:
[14:11] I mean, that is a very tough question and something that I find myself frustrated about because my own work has shown for a decade what the impacts of this will be. But it's not just my own work, it's the work of many other economists all around the country who have studied other immigration enforcement policies in other eras. And the results are quite consistent. Whether you look at mass deportation campaigns in the 1930s, in the 2000s, in the 2010s, the results are quite similar. So I think what we are seeing is politicians using immigrants as a scapegoat for our economic problems. And again, this is nothing new. The same rhetoric has been used to justify mass deportation campaigns throughout US history and really around the world. This is not necessarily a unique phenomenon to the United States. And so I think it is a relatively simple way that politicians can try to claim that they are working on solving economic problems that people are feeling, even though that is not what is borne out in the data.

Speaker 4:
[15:30] Chloe East is an associate professor of economics at the University of Colorado Boulder. Dr. East, thank you so much for your time.

Speaker 5:
[15:39] Thank you.

Speaker 4:
[15:41] That is it for us today. Let us know what you think about the trends that we're seeing in the labor market, especially when it comes to these immigration crackdowns and mass deportations. You can send any questions or comments to MakeMeSmart at marketplace.org or leave us a voicemail at 508-UBSmart. Make Me Smart is produced by Courtney Burkseeker. Today's program was engineered by Montana Johnson. Ben Tolade and Daniel Ramirez composed our theme music. Our supervisory senior producer is Daisy Palacios. Nancy Fargali is executive producer of Marketplace Shows, and Marketplace's vice president and general manager is Neil Scarborough.

Speaker 6:
[16:49] The economy moves fast, and when headlines turn on a dime, it is essential that you feel informed rather than overwhelmed. Hey, I'm David Brancaccio, special correspondent for Marketplace, and an avid reader of the Marketplace newsletter, not that I'm partial. Every Friday Marketplace curates must read stories from the week, and delivers explainers right to your inbox. So if you want the latest from me and our team of award-winning journalists, head over to marketplace.org/newsletters and sign up today.