transcript

Speaker 1:
[00:02] Hi, everyone. I'm Natalie Gochnour. This is Both Sides of the Aisle. I represent the Political Center and have on the political right, John Dougall.

Speaker 2:
[00:09] Great to be with you.

Speaker 1:
[00:10] Yeah, great to see you, John, and have on the political left, Shireen Ghorbani.

Speaker 3:
[00:13] Hello, and listeners, we're so glad you're with us.

Speaker 1:
[00:15] Yeah. Listen, you two, it's a pretty time of year in Salt Lake City, all of the state of Utah.

Speaker 2:
[00:20] We're recording on Tuesday. It's supposed to be 80 in Salt Lake today, and then it's going to cool off.

Speaker 1:
[00:25] I found myself this weekend in my Adirondack chair in my backyard, just kind of watching the day go by, you know, reading, doing what I do, but watching birds.

Speaker 2:
[00:34] Reading.

Speaker 1:
[00:34] That's what you do. You read a lot. I'm watching the birds and the bird feeders. I got a bunch of squirrels. It's like a carnival of activity, and it was just so peaceful, and I was thinking about that as we introduced this program today, because it's living hell outside of my backyard in some ways.

Speaker 2:
[00:53] How do you really feel?

Speaker 1:
[00:54] Well, the way I think of it is right now, we're sitting here, of course, recording on Tuesday, we've got Iran and the US., it looks like, about to engage in more talks. We've got the timeline for the end of the ceasefire approaching us, and we're sitting here, this juxtaposition of taco, Trump always chickens out, and Armageddon. Which is it? Where are we going to be? And, you know, it's such a contrast to sitting in my backyard watching the finches. Yeah.

Speaker 3:
[01:20] Yeah, I'm sure you feel this way, but it's interesting, especially in the work that I do and in the reproductive space, people are always like, how are you doing it? And I'm like, personally, I'm okay. But like this, all of these things on the outside are heavy. It's really a lot, not only with our work, but certainly being part Iranian and just thinking about the kind of disorder and violence that we're seeing across the globe.

Speaker 1:
[01:43] What's the conservative message right now about this conflict?

Speaker 2:
[01:48] I'm going to say, well, this is the challenge. For the conservative message, it's conflicted. Some of those that are hardcore Trump supporters is like, look at the great things he's done in Venezuela, how he's turned it around. We're negotiating with Cuba and we have destroyed Iran's Navy and crippled them and they're going to want to do a deal. For others, I thought we're going to not be in nation-building. We weren't going to be in war. He was going to be the peace president, and so they're highly conflicted. I mean, they are sick and tired of 47 years plus of issues with Iran and their proxies, and they want peace in the Middle East. And so they're hopeful that that happens, but they're also skeptical because it just seems like there's a lot of chaos and what's going on with the Straits of Orhomouz and all that. And are they really going to get the nuclear weapons? You're not going to be able to do that from naval ships or from airplanes. You're going to have to put boots on the ground if you're really going to get that against Iran's will. And I can't see how Iranians want to give that up. We see what happens with Ukraine when they gave that up and how they became a sitting duck.

Speaker 1:
[03:02] So the US House voted in the past week to pass the War Powers Resolution. It failed, 213 to 214. So incredibly close.

Speaker 2:
[03:13] Largely party lines.

Speaker 3:
[03:17] And so we're clear. Every single member of our representation in Congress continued to just hand over their responsibility around engaging in war to this president. So that's Blake Moore. That's Celeste Malloy. That's Kennedy. That is Burgess Hogan. It's like, I just need people to remember. That is what they did.

Speaker 1:
[03:38] Well, and so John is saying...

Speaker 2:
[03:40] I would have preferred that they voted, yes, President, you can continue this versus voting that we're not going to constrain.

Speaker 1:
[03:47] Yeah, I see. So John is saying the conservative message is split, but when it comes to placing a vote, there's unity.

Speaker 3:
[03:54] There's unity.

Speaker 1:
[03:55] Kind of interesting.

Speaker 3:
[03:55] So I just want to quickly ask from an economic perspective...

Speaker 2:
[03:58] And I will note there's a difference between the general conservative populace and those in Congress.

Speaker 3:
[04:02] Sure. So on this, I think we're all thinking about the lives lost. We're thinking about the increased risk to those who serve our country. But what are you seeing from an economic perspective? Because I think we're all talking about gas prices, but there's a lot of global disruption with this war. Can you talk a little bit about that?

Speaker 1:
[04:21] Yeah. I mean, it does come down to energy commodity prices and how that ripples through the economy. You know, some countries are harder hit than others, as we know Europe's hard hit here. We know that China gets a lot of its oil from this region. And so they're watching this pretty carefully. I looked at the numbers, Shireen. We estimate, this is, when I say we, the economic community, it's not like the Gardner Institute, but that a $40 increase in the price of oil leads to a dollar a gallon increase. So Brent crude is the measure we use globally to measure oil prices. And it was about $60, $70 before this crisis. It's gotten as high as $124. It's lower than that right now. But we're in the $40 per barrel increase. That gives us a dollar, if it's sustained, it gives us a dollar per gallon increase. And it takes $120 billion out of other consumer expenditures. It's coming out of consumers' pockets and going to energy. And that's about $1,000 per household hit. That's not going to other things. And I think it reduces GDP by about 40 basis points and increases inflation by about 60 basis points. So these are just not good realities.

Speaker 3:
[05:31] Not good trends, right?

Speaker 1:
[05:32] Not good trends, not helpful. But short-term sacrifice to get more stability in the long run, that would be some people's message. But as I look at Utah, I think I mentioned this last week, our jobs report showed us growing at 0.6%. That is very low.

Speaker 3:
[05:49] Very low.

Speaker 1:
[05:50] And we have seven of our 11 major industries contracting right now. So I think it's the economy. Stupid kind of stands out there, that foreign policy debated, argued about it. Yeah, James Carville. But the economy is what people will vote on in a big way. And I saw an article... Well, I looked at Polymarket on the Senate. You know, will the Democrats take over the Senate? I did not. I showed it to my husband. I said, you know, we could do this. But it is this thing where will Republicans maintain the Senate? And 70% just, you know, a year ago. And it is increasingly dropping. And now they are in the red. The Democrats are a couple of points above in the Polymarket. It is just what people think.

Speaker 2:
[06:35] Well, and speaking of James Carville, recently he basically said, all the Democrats in Congress should go to a foreign country for the next... until the general election.

Speaker 1:
[06:44] Don't say anything.

Speaker 2:
[06:44] So they don't say anything stupid. Just go on vacation to the Bahamas and just keep your mouth closed.

Speaker 1:
[06:52] Separate from the economy though, there's a lot of moral leadership things going on here. So this Israeli soldier that has allegedly taken a statue of Jesus Christ. Yeah. I mean, that is playing out and really disappointing. You get that in more times, but that doesn't feel good.

Speaker 3:
[07:13] Yeah. I think it's hard for me not to think about the way that Pete Hegseth is invoking religion in...

Speaker 1:
[07:22] They're saying the president is going to read from the Bible in the Oval Office publicly in the next 24 hours. So that will air by the time all of this is back.

Speaker 2:
[07:29] There's a whole big, all sorts of folks reading Bible passages as part of America's 250th birthday.

Speaker 1:
[07:36] Well, so meanwhile, world military spending in the 1960s was about 6% of GDP. It dropped to about 2.5%, and it is now going to be on the rise. We're moving to a society that is more militarily inclined, more conflict, you know, challenged, engaged.

Speaker 2:
[07:57] The less viewed stability is the more we're going to need it. And some are saying Trump's been pushing NATO allies to increase their spending, and this is going to force the US to increase as well.

Speaker 1:
[08:07] Phil, to both of you, do you think if our president had to do this again that he would take back what he started?

Speaker 3:
[08:13] No, because I think that he is insulated in a way that is really concerning in terms of his response to or connection to what the American people are actually feeling.

Speaker 1:
[08:24] What do you think, John?

Speaker 2:
[08:25] I think he likes the quick in and out like in Venezuela. And so I think he would have perhaps pushed to say, okay, what's a better strategy to just get in and out? I think this is probably going longer than he anticipated.

Speaker 1:
[08:40] Mm-hmm, yeah, trouble with it. And that gives Iran negotiating position, because we know the president wants to bring this to a close, I think. Wow.

Speaker 2:
[08:50] And when you say, here's your endgame or here's the timeline, yeah, it tells your opponents, Iran likes to hold out. I mean, part of the problem we had when we were negotiating before the most recent attacks of the US and Israel on Iran was they're just stalling, stalling, stalling. They're not really interested in peace, they're interested in power, and they win by stalling.

Speaker 1:
[09:10] Yeah, meanwhile, the president...

Speaker 2:
[09:11] You've got the blockade there of the strait, and the US actually shot out, if you will, the engine of a boat, the motor of a boat, to block it, to keep it from running the blockade.

Speaker 1:
[09:25] President lost another cabinet member this week, the Secretary of Labor resigned.

Speaker 3:
[09:30] Labor under scrutiny for corruption, basically.

Speaker 1:
[09:34] And then we've got the FBI director, Dash Patel, filing a defamation lawsuit against the Atlantic Magazine.

Speaker 3:
[09:40] Yeah, well, I've read this article.

Speaker 1:
[09:42] Tell the readers. Sorry, the listeners.

Speaker 3:
[09:43] The listeners. Yeah, it's quite concerning. I mean, the summary is that there are many ways in which he is, I would say, greatly enjoying the flight privileges and travel privileges associated with his role to frequently take him to a bar in Las Vegas, among other places. And I think what is concerning is, allegedly, he has been on numerous occasions so intoxicated that he has been unable to do his job. And I don't know, I kind of don't even want to talk about it, but if you followed the news of the horrific revelation of millions of people going online to basically learn about sexual assault, when I think about what the FBI could be doing in this country to actually meaningfully interrupt what's happening around the kinds of crime that are picking up steam in this country, to have somebody so ineffective and frankly untrustworthy and unserious in this role is something we should all be very concerned about.

Speaker 1:
[10:41] Interesting. Hey, let's end the first segment on a positive. I'm going to call it moon joy, John.

Speaker 2:
[10:47] Okay.

Speaker 1:
[10:48] You know, we talked about Artemis, but we didn't talk about it after the landing. It sounds like all three of us watched the landing.

Speaker 2:
[10:53] I did. I did. I watched the landing. They landed, the parachutes deployed, we heard them on the radio, and then my power went out at home for two hours.

Speaker 1:
[11:03] It was so good because we're all sitting there knowing the risks of this. And Shireen, you're too young, but I remember some of the earlier space shuttle problems like live fire. I'm watching it and I'm like, uh-oh, what was that?

Speaker 2:
[11:16] You watched Apollo 13, the movie, right?

Speaker 3:
[11:18] I did watch Apollo 13, the movie, but I also think I may have been, was I in second grade when the, was that Challenger? Yeah, I do have memories of that, but it was incredible. My husband, who was watching it with my kid, we got a picture of them watching together. It sounds like you had a similar.

Speaker 2:
[11:36] Yeah. And I was down in Puerto Rico and I had people running across the plaza, basically steering me over to a little store to go see the newspaper. This is in the mid-eighties.

Speaker 3:
[11:44] Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Speaker 2:
[11:45] Yeah. Yeah, so I was on an LDS mission at the time. Pure joy.

Speaker 1:
[11:48] Pure joy.

Speaker 3:
[11:49] Yeah. Glad they returned safely. Incredible work.

Speaker 1:
[11:51] Let's take a short break and then I want to talk about the measles outbreak in Utah. Stay tuned, everyone.

Speaker 3:
[11:57] You're listening to Both Sides of the Aisle on Utah Public Radio. We love to hear from listeners like you. If you would like to send us a comment, email BSOTAPodcast at gmail.com. That's BSOTAPodcast at gmail.com. Thanks for listening. Shireen Ghorbani on the left.

Speaker 2:
[12:21] John Dougall on the right.

Speaker 1:
[12:22] I'm Natalie Gochnour in the Political Center. John and Shireen, measles, we got to talk about this. People die from this. Now, I'm biased. My father was a pediatrician. I was raised with an understanding of public health.

Speaker 2:
[12:37] He probably saw the before and the after of a vaccine for measles.

Speaker 1:
[12:41] Including polio, he saw before and after. He's passed maybe 20 years ago. But we have the national media is pointing to Utah as a hotbed. On April 14th, our officials are saying 602 measles cases. 256 of these are in Southwest Utah, which is out of balance with our population distribution. What do you say, John? In other words, they're primarily people who haven't gotten the vaccine, which a lot of it means children.

Speaker 2:
[13:11] So what I say is, I recognize from my perspective, vaccines generally provide more benefit than harm. I do recognize that for some individuals, there is harm. And so what I want parents to do is really study, really research, and make an informed decision about how to go about this. I can't wait until we have medical science so that it can better designate which individuals will be harmed by a vaccine versus those that are benefit. But the overwhelming majority clearly benefit.

Speaker 1:
[13:43] Overwhelming.

Speaker 2:
[13:44] Clearly benefit.

Speaker 1:
[13:44] Big numbers.

Speaker 3:
[13:46] I think this is incredibly concerning, and I would just really encourage people, especially if you're listening to this in southern Utah, if you are lucky enough to have a pediatrician, if you have small children, or go on to a reputable source and understand what the symptoms are, because measles is unbelievably contagious.

Speaker 1:
[14:07] You lose-

Speaker 2:
[14:08] And deadly.

Speaker 3:
[14:09] And deadly, so please get to know the signs and understand-

Speaker 1:
[14:12] You lose herd immunity is the term that they use when you get below a certain threshold that it can spread rapidly. And so those that are immunized do fine, but those that aren't, spread it rapidly.

Speaker 3:
[14:22] Spread it rapidly. So this is really concerning and it is a terrible trend. And I think honestly a terrible look for this sort of maha anti-trust that has been built around what are some essential agreed upon factors in our communal health.

Speaker 2:
[14:40] But I would note unfortunately public health has harmed its credibility, especially during the COVID period. Its pronouncements rather than being humble saying, we don't know how to deal with this, but we think these are the best ways to approach it and then change that as they get more information. It seemed to be overwhelmingly as if they knew what was going on and this is good and this is good. And Anthony Fauci was at the tip of the spear in undercutting trust in public health, which is now unfortunately.

Speaker 3:
[15:12] And exactly alongside of that, people are actually taking medical advice from people who have spent zero time in research, in medical school, going to individuals online who have done their own research. And that is not a good way for us to advance our communal health. That's how we get 600 cases of measles in the state.

Speaker 2:
[15:33] If we ignore the fact of those that should have known better undercutting trust in public health, we won't get there.

Speaker 1:
[15:40] We can talk about that more. April 25th looms large. This is when the state party convention for the Democratic Party is up.

Speaker 2:
[15:48] And the Republican Party.

Speaker 1:
[15:49] Both of the same day.

Speaker 3:
[15:50] Where are you going to be?

Speaker 2:
[15:52] UVU.

Speaker 3:
[15:54] Oh, wow.

Speaker 2:
[15:54] At convention.

Speaker 1:
[15:55] Okay. You know, Ben McAdams looms large in CD1. Is that right? CD1? Yeah. Raised more than 1.5 million.

Speaker 2:
[16:02] The one gerrymandered for Democrats.

Speaker 3:
[16:04] Okay.

Speaker 1:
[16:04] Yeah.

Speaker 3:
[16:04] Unlike the ones that we currently live with that are gerrymandered for your party.

Speaker 1:
[16:07] Has over $863,000 in the bank that will power his campaign through the primary. This guy knows what he's doing.

Speaker 3:
[16:14] Yeah. Unfortunately, and I'll just acknowledge again, Senator Reaby coming forward and saying what she found out in this race is you have to be able to raise money. And John and I actually have both been there. If you cannot raise money, you cannot execute the kind of campaign that needs to be executed to win.

Speaker 2:
[16:32] And a lot of money.

Speaker 3:
[16:33] Even in a fair district, even in districts that have been drawn with an eye towards fairness, you still need to raise money in these races.

Speaker 1:
[16:41] So, Nate Blouin, this is Senator Blouin. He has been, you know, put in the media stories about some very offensive comments that surfaced when he was a lot younger. But he talks about it as opposition research, Shireen. This is a common thing that happens in elections where you don't know who's done the research to disclose some of these concerning news stories, but it happens. Yeah.

Speaker 3:
[17:07] I mean, this opposition research.

Speaker 2:
[17:09] The fault is in opposition research.

Speaker 1:
[17:11] No, I'm waiting for you guys to make that point.

Speaker 2:
[17:13] The fault is the stupidity and the insensitivity and the atrociousness of the comments that were made.

Speaker 3:
[17:17] I'll just also say as a person who is, it does feel like he's very chronically online. It is not a surprise to me that in his younger years, he was also very, it seems, chronically online.

Speaker 1:
[17:28] I'm glad he's apologized.

Speaker 3:
[17:30] Yes, I'm glad he's apologized.

Speaker 1:
[17:30] And I'm glad it was 10 years ago or more.

Speaker 3:
[17:32] And owned it, right? Said, yes, I'm horrified. He didn't try to act like he didn't do it. I just have to say that this is going to be the future for people my age and younger, who have been very online their entire lives. Like at some point, I'm sure I've said something. I've probably said stuff on this show that's wildly offensive to people. But I'll just say that there is like a real sense of what the kind of, I just am concerned when I see these kinds of comments, are you saying them to try to fit in? Are you saying like, what is driving your desire to run your mouth like this? I think that should be concerning for all of us, but I don't know.

Speaker 2:
[18:08] And then it gets even worse because for some, when they portray, oh, we need to be sensitive and we need to listen to folks and we need to trust certain and then it's like, oh, but behind closed doors, you seem like a very different person.

Speaker 3:
[18:21] Yeah, yeah, and that's tough.

Speaker 1:
[18:23] Let's go to CD3. This is Congresswoman Celeste Malloy. Guess there's three GOP primary challengers.

Speaker 2:
[18:29] That's the one she's running for. It's not the one she's in right now, but it's the one she's running for. It's the one Kennedy's in right now, but he's running for four.

Speaker 1:
[18:35] One is Phil Lyman. John, tell our listeners what happens. Like we've got these three GOP challengers. One of them's Phil Lyman. What happens at the convention?

Speaker 2:
[18:45] What happens at the convention is you will have all three speak. You will then vote it. It will narrow it down to either one or two. If one person can get 60% or more of the vote at convention, then they become the convention nominee.

Speaker 1:
[19:00] And you've done this before.

Speaker 2:
[19:02] You've been on stage doing this many times.

Speaker 1:
[19:05] My recollection, I've been a delegate in the Republican Party many times, but they get up on stage and they try to differentiate themselves. And there's a lot of jockeying with the audience and different things. Sometimes there's things to be memorable, coming out in chains and complaining about how government's gotten too intrusive in our lives.

Speaker 3:
[19:23] You have a guy that sometimes shows up in...

Speaker 2:
[19:24] I remember that with Mike Levitt's opponent.

Speaker 3:
[19:27] I remember a guy who dressed up as Abraham Lincoln showing up at yours.

Speaker 2:
[19:30] He had done that multiple times. So what happens is it will come down to does somebody get the nomination or not. If you end up with two people and they're between 60 and 40 percent of the vote, then you get two going off and then you have also the dynamics of anybody that gathered signatures already being on the primary ballot. So that's what will play out. What I see right now is every indication that Celeste Malloy is picking up steam and momentum. I just saw something basically the entire county commission in Washington County and all the elected officials that are in the House, State House and State Senate endorsing Celeste.

Speaker 1:
[20:10] Yeah.

Speaker 2:
[20:10] Wow.

Speaker 3:
[20:10] Interesting.

Speaker 2:
[20:11] And so that, you would think that that historically might have gone a different way, but she has shown up time and time again. And so a lot of folks are saying she delivers. She may not be quite aligned with me 100% politically, but the fact she's shown up and she's doing the work says, hey, at 90% or 95% she's got.

Speaker 1:
[20:30] From my perspective, you know, Shireen, one way for me to kind of think of this is that elections are crucibles, meaning you, a crucible is like this hot black pot that's being just heated.

Speaker 2:
[20:42] We've been through it.

Speaker 1:
[20:43] Yeah, both of you have been through this crucible. And I have so much respect, whether it's Phil Lyman, whether it's Celeste Malloy, for people that put their name on the ballot, for people who get up on this, you know, this day and go do this. Yeah. Who wants to do this?

Speaker 3:
[20:58] Who wants to do this? Tickets getting less and less attractive all the time, unfortunately.

Speaker 1:
[21:02] Yeah. All right. Well, so now going back a little bit further, the Davis County Republican Party, we had Trevor Lee. He lost at his GOP convention. He still had enough to make the primary, but he's embattled at this point, John.

Speaker 2:
[21:16] He is. He is. And some of the allegations against him, I guess, go back to when he was in college, 10, 12 years ago. And so sometimes you can chalk that up to being young and dumb. And you've learned from it. Clearly, Jason Walton has said I'm coming forward now because I thought that he had put this behind him, and I don't think he has. And I don't see Jason Walton as one that's aligned with Trevor's opponent. I just see him as I'm concerned with this kind of behavior.

Speaker 3:
[21:44] Yeah, so he's alleged of fraudulently altering checks, using his position of power in the legislature to secure government contracts, to settle a debt to his employer. None of this is good. I also think this is a person who is frequently running what I would just have to classify as hateful and embarrassing legislation in our state. And I do hope that the voters of Davis County, it seems like they have a reasonable person that they could go with, and I hope they do.

Speaker 1:
[22:11] Yeah, I feel bad to mention some legislators. I mean, sorry, some congresspeople and not others.

Speaker 2:
[22:17] And I'll remind folks, Jason Walton ran for US Senate two years ago.

Speaker 1:
[22:22] But Mike Kennedy, Congressman Kennedy is looking good in his fundraising. Blake Moore is interesting here. He's raised more than $2.3 million.

Speaker 2:
[22:30] It's like his opponents have raised no money. And as we both said, you got to have a decent amount of money to be successful.

Speaker 1:
[22:36] Yeah, Representative Lizanby, a Republican from Clearfield, raised just under $150,000 in the first quarter of the year. Of course, she got in quite late. But there's going to be a lot for us to talk about in just a few weeks here. Yes, there will.

Speaker 3:
[22:47] And I'll be curious how they spend it. Are they actually out at doors? Are they talking to voters? Are they trying to engage them? Or are they just putting that money in their war chest? Because it's still Republican-leaning districts in those cases. So what are they going to use their money for?

Speaker 2:
[23:00] Yeah. Well, when we talk about scandal and controversy, we've also got concerns expressed about a Supreme Court justice, and certain relationships with her attorney representing the folks for Prop 4. And so there'll be an investigation there. And I've heard different things about timeline, whether she properly disclosed or the allegations she didn't properly disclose the conflict. And so that will be another thing that will cause the electric concern.

Speaker 3:
[23:25] And if I'm understanding this correctly, she has actually already had an investigation into these allegations and was cleared of that.

Speaker 1:
[23:33] What's interesting to me is you need accountability, whether it's the executive branch, the legislative branch, or the judicial branch. And this Judicial Conduct Commission is the way that you do that. But the legislature is crying foul and looking for more investigations anyway.

Speaker 3:
[23:46] Yeah, I think that they're going to continue to try to reach themselves into every branch of our government. That is kind of how they are. That's how the legislature and our executive on the governor's side are operating.

Speaker 2:
[23:57] And one timeline I saw said she appropriately at the appropriate times did recuse herself because of that conflict. That conflict didn't happen until part way through the process.

Speaker 1:
[24:06] Yeah, are capital cities looking at a vote that would ban people living or sleeping overnight in vehicles on public property? These will be RVs and cars that are parked on public streets between 11 at night and 5 a.m. Where do you come down on this one?

Speaker 3:
[24:19] I think this is criminalizing poverty. Okay, as simple as it can be.

Speaker 1:
[24:24] John?

Speaker 2:
[24:26] Part of this is if it's safe and doesn't bother folks, then I don't have a problem. But if it's really causing a safety concern or a crime concern, then appropriate for the city to weigh in.

Speaker 1:
[24:38] Yeah.

Speaker 3:
[24:39] What do you think about it?

Speaker 1:
[24:39] Well, typical me, I'm in the political middle, right? If it's a safety concern, you've got to deal with it. I also think that it's not a dignified way, particularly in the cold and whatnot, for people to live. And we've got to find better solutions. And so I'm out for investing more money to help people.

Speaker 3:
[24:54] Investing more money to help people, but that is not what this comes with, right? So it feels out of order. And again, it just feels like a real targeting of folks who are already having a real hard time.

Speaker 1:
[25:04] All right, well, that's a wrap. A great discussion, you two, Shireen Ghorbani, John Dougall, and Natalie Gochnour. Programs produced by Anthony Scoma. Thanks for listening, everyone.