transcript

Speaker 1:
[00:01] The Volume. What is going on, my people? How are we doing? John Middlekauff, 3 and Out Podcast. I thought I would do this. I actually recorded this on Tuesday, a little Inside Baseball. But I did my 10 bold predictions for tonight's first round. And some of them just involve random stuff, some of them involved individual teams, some of them involved position groups. I just picked 10 things. I've been thinking about this for a couple days. And we will just do my 10 bold predictions for the first round in the NFL. We'll have a reaction tomorrow to everything that happens tonight. We'll have another reaction on Saturday to everything that happens in the second and the third round. So these are exciting times. I, like many of you, really enjoy the draft. It's fun. All the talk for a couple of weeks ends. And we just get to finally see who likes which players. No more BS, no more anonymous quotes. Just, oh, he actually loved that guy because they picked him over the other three guys. And that's what's fun about the draft. And then if you're a fan, you're like, my team has a new wide receiver, a new pass thrusher, a new linebacker. It's cool. It's, the draft's the best. I mean, I fell in love with football and probably the draft not too far after. So this is an incredible event. And that's what we'll do today. So if you listen on Colin's feed, make sure you subscribe to 3 and Out. Separate podcast. It's got his own feed. Run Netflix. Make sure you hit that alert button. And let's talk some football. 10 bold predictions for the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft. Let's start with 10. I think it was reported at the end of the year in 2025 that the NFL would go from 10 minutes to eight minutes in the first round. Because as we all know, when they get to the second round, it goes quicker. And by the time we're on the third day, it feels like there's a minute between picks. It's rapid fire. I do think as the consumer habits have changed, our attention spans are shorter. It's harder to get us to just watch nothing. And this is a very, very unique event. I got the opportunity to go in 2011. And it's really cool, but nothing's really happening beside guys being picked. There's a lot of downtime. It's not like you're going to a game. It's not like you're going to a movie. There's not a lot of action. There just isn't. So going from 10 minutes to eight minutes makes sense. I would imagine over the course of the next couple years, Goodell is gonna push extremely hard to make this five minutes per pick in the first round. Because the quicker you can get this thing churning, because even if you're going five minutes per pick, you know, 32 teams, you can stretch this out a several hour event, sell advertising. You have a pregame show for 30 minutes. You have a postgame show. You can get three hours worth of content with ease. I do think the 10 minutes thing was a good idea to scrap. And, you know, I would imagine the teams push back against shortening it too much because you want to have time on the clock to make decisions about trades. But multiple of these GMs have mentioned over the course of the last week in these press conferences that these conversations about trades in the first round used to happen on like Tuesday and Wednesday. John Lynch said the other day he's been talking to teams for a week and he's picking 27. So, I think the wiring of these GMs, people being able to pivot on the spot, this is only the beginning. You know, in politics, they often say that if you allow them to do this, they will take even more and do that, right? You give them an inch, they'll take a mile. You can't allow them to take that away because then they'll take this away. I think Roger Goodell is going to want this thing to even be quicker because it's just the nature of the way we consume everything in life. We are easily distracted on our phones. If it's not your team drafting, it's like you may not be... He wants you to watch and if it's rapid fire, like if you went at the speed in the first round of the third day, it would be fireworks. Now, I totally understand. You can't go like two minutes per pick, but I do think we will inevitably get to five minutes. Now, it might take a couple years, but eight minutes is going to be a story tomorrow or tonight, and they're going to talk about it. But get ready, this is only the beginning. Number nine, all I've heard for weeks, the Rams are going to take Mackay Lemon. The Rams could consider taking Ty Simpson, which I think is insane. You think Sean McVay is going to waste the 13th pick on a quarterback who's not even going to play? He's literally begging Jimmy Garoppolo to not retire. It's like Jimmy, if we had more money on our cap space, we would give you a little extra bump to come back. Could you just please be our backup quarterback? He was begging Kirk Cousins to be his backup quarterback two weeks ago at the Arizona Owners' Meetings. I just have a hard time seeing them go wide receiver with this pick. I do believe your history as a general manager influences your future in these drafts. And they all talk about it. We study where we've had success and why we've had success. Two of their most successful draft picks in the history of the organization, definitely with Les and Sean, are Cooper Cup and Pukka Nakuwa. Neither of them was remotely close to the 13th overall pick. You have proven over and over and over that you can get good players at the wide receiver position later in the draft. And this drafts well talked about, like you could find starters in the second and third round. I do not believe that the Rams go wide receiver here. And I think they go offensive linemen. I think they go offensive line with the 13th pick. And it's like a bigger picture, like we're never going to draft this high again. We'll probably just trade first rounders the next couple of years anyway. But we get the opportunity to take a pretty good offensive lineman right there at 13. That's where I think they go. We'll get into Jeremiah Love here in a second, but this is a big picture running back thought. I think there's a decent chance that a running back beside Jeremiah Love, who could go as high as three, could go as low as like eight. Who knows, maybe 10 or 11. I don't think we get a running back go in the top 50. I've heard from my scouting buddies, who have been doing this a long time, this is the worst running back draft they've ever seen, which is crazy because usually you get a bunch of guys go in the late 20s. In the second round is always a sweet spot for like the Nick Chubbs, the Quinchon Junkins, like you just get really good starters in that like 33 to 45 range historically, or running backs drafted. I do not believe this is going to be the case. Now, I think there have been a lot of people putting Price, the Notre Dame backup, think about this. Jeremiah Love, who is one of the better running back prospects of like the last 20 years, like he'd be on a top 10 list of running backs coming out of college, right, going back to Adrian Peterson, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Bijon Robinson. I think Gentie was clearly pretty highly viewed, maybe a little overdrafted, but he was a really good prospect as well. And Todd Gurley, like we have seen guys go, Marshawn Lynch coming out of college, I think, what was he, picked 12? You see guys get drafted really high. It's not often the second best running back in a draft is that guy's backup. It's like, yeah, we don't even think anyone's even remotely as good as that guy. So I think there's a chance that if Seattle, who have been rumored, you let Kenneth Walker go, it'd be forcing a need a little bit. I'd be a little surprised. I think we have a chance to see a running back not beside Love go in the top 50, which is pretty crazy. And I don't know if that's just like a cyclical thing, right? Just kind of a year to year deal, just one of those times. Or if it's like a big picture, trending, the sport has gotten much more spread out. Most guys that used to be running backs now are maybe playing receiver, playing defense, maybe playing different positions. Something I'm just keeping an eye on, I don't want to call it a red flag. It could just be a weird year, right? I would say this wide receiver class in the first round is kind of average. Some years we see three wide receivers go in the top nine, right? Malik, Marvin Harrison, Rome. I mean, those guys, if Rome was in this draft, he would, I think, be the first wide receiver off the board. So it could just be 2026 draft problem, but it's definitely something to keep an eye on. Next year college football, how many high-end running backs do we have coming out in the draft? So my prediction will be the second running back won't go till after top 50 picks. You know, this wide receiver class is pretty interesting because Cardinal Tate in a lot of drafts over the course of the last decade, I think goes like the 20s. And there's nothing wrong with that. Jordan Addison, Zay Flowers, like historically you get a guy, Justin Jefferson, like you can get sweet wide receivers in the 20s or the late teens, right? To me, if you draft a guy in the top 10, I'm looking Jamar Chase, Julio Jones, AJ Green, like I'm looking to hit a home run. And I think this, you know, to me, Tate, I by no means think he's a lock top 10 pick. The Jordan Tyson thing, they're just going to be teams that even if they think the guy's a really good player, and I've talked to some of my friends who think he's a little overrated and I talk to some people that love him. But the injury thing is something that terrifies teams. And to me, I think guys like that historically, people with major injury questions, guys that can't work out till a week before the draft, sometimes drop a little in the draft. I think there is a chance. And Mackay Lemon, I remember Greg Cosell told me at the combine, he's like, I just don't really see it. Because it's like, well, it's physical play, it's physical play, it's physical play. How many guys in the NFL play like Puganakua? That's not necessarily, and listen, I'm not anti-Mackay Lemon, he's a good player. He's an NFL starter. But when you're talking about drafting a guy in like top 15, top 20, I'm looking for CD Lamb. Is that what Mackay Lemon's gonna be? I don't know. Again, I'm not anti-Mackay Lemon. I'm just saying that I do think he's gonna be a little bit eye of the beholder. There are gonna be some teams that are like, yeah, it's not really our style player. That's why everyone thinks that the Rams are gonna like him, because he reminds them a lot of Puka. Well, Puka goes to rehab, he cleans up his life. You already got Puka. So you're gonna get two Pukas? Little weird. I think there's a chance that Omar Cooper, which the funny part about Indiana is you get Mendoza, you get all these transfers, you build this championship team. Omar Cooper was there before Signetti got there. You know, typically, you get a new coach in, all these guys disperse, especially on a bad team like Indiana when Signetti got there. He stayed a couple years later. I think there's a chance he's the second wide receiver off the board. I've talked to some people in the league, his stock is rising. Now, obviously, if Jordan Tyson, someone feels comfortable with the medical, he could go high. I mean, I saw the clip of his pro day jumping. There's no disputing his athleticism. I think there are some question marks with physicality, run after catch in terms of breaking tackles. I mean, he's not exactly Debo with the ball in his hands. But I think he's going to be really fascinating. I do think some people in a draft that is not viewed as great, like kind of just want to hit a double. Some people are just looking to like, I'll hit the fairway if it's 250 yards. I'm not looking to hit a 320-yard drive out of bounds. And I think sometimes in these type moments, people think a little bit more conservatively. So Omar Cooper's second wide receiver off the board. We talk a lot of football in the show, but the NBA playoffs are here. And here's the thing, if you want to bet on LeBron's point total, if you want to bet on Jokic getting his typical triple double, if you want to bet on some of Wemby's overs, every single game, make your same game parlays, very, very easy to do. And if you're ever late to tip off, ever, Hard Rock Bet has you covered, because they let you live bet all game long. Sign up today and double your winnings on your first 10 bets, maximum $50. That's right, double your winnings on your first 10 bets, so if you would have won 100 bucks on your own bet, now it's 200. How do you beat that? You don't. The welcome offer is just the tip. Hard Rock Bet has new promos daily. So open up the app right now and see what promo you've got today. Download the Hard Rock Bet app and let the party get started, baby. Payable and bonus bets, not a cash offer. Offered by Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida. Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. You must be 21 plus and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, and Virginia to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1-833-PLAYWISE. In Indiana, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9 with it. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. I'm recording this podcast on Tuesday, so by the time you listen to this, there could be news officially out. But earlier this week, the Steelers, they keep saying, we've talked to Rodgers, we know his timeline. Aaron claims, he loves going on McAfee and like, I hate publicity, I hate a platform, I don't want to be seen, I want to hide, and I want to go into hibernation, I want to be left alone as you're talking to McAfee. Which I'm making fun of a little bit, I enjoy Rodgers more than most, and I've loved watching him play. Remember the year, was it A-Rod? Was he coming back or something happened with A-Rod? And it was released during like the second game of the World Series, and Bud Seeley like lost his shit because he was like taking away from the World Series. I predicted Aaron Rodgers, we get some news during the draft that Aaron Rodgers is officially coming back. Could be, if I wanted to hedge my bet a little bit, it'll definitely happen by Friday, but I would not be shocked to see a report sometime Thursday that Aaron Rodgers has told McCarthy, has told the Rooney's, has told the Steelers. I'm in the boat, baby. I'm going to be ready. You guys have no quarterbacks, besides Will Howard, that for some reason, people in my DMs and Sealer fans think that they got like Kurt Warner right there, and maybe you do. You never know until he gets to play. And right now I saw him taking first team reps because I don't expect Rodgers to be at OTAs, but I would not be surprised at all if over the next 24 hours, but specifically, maybe a little bit before the first round, we get some definitive news out of the Rodgers camp. I've seen a couple GMs say this. Brett Veach said this the other day. There could be a ton of trades in this draft. Now, not big ones. Like, I don't expect people giving up future picks to trade. But I also think when I hear draft analysts say, the 27 draft, the 27 draft, the 27 draft, I think we got to be very careful about doing that. This is not basketball where we knew three years ago that this NBA draft was going to be unreal because you could just watch these guys at 16 in AAU games. That's not the way football works. Things change dramatically year to year. Guys get injured, guys underperform. Now, with NIL guys return, there is so much unknown. I also think there are so many teams that just view themselves as playoff teams or playoff contenders. Their coaching staff and their ownership is living in the now. They plan on winning in 26. So any team like the Browns or the Jets that I hear, hey, they're thinking about 27. They're thinking, they are in the minority. You know, if you told me the Chiefs trade up, it's like, and they traded from nine to three and they gave up the 27 first round. Well, yeah, because they plan on having that first round pick be somewhere between 28 and 32. They ain't worried about that draft class. They're thinking about week one, playing the fucking chargers, right? They plan on winning 12 to plus games. They plan on kicking ass this year and they'll do whatever it takes. I would imagine the Bills, I would imagine all these good teams, the Eagles, they are living in the now. That's where I think you get bad teams definitely willing to trade back, accumulate more picks. You get a lot of these good teams willing to maneuver. And then you get these teams in the middle, you know, the Cowboys, the Buccaneers, some of these teams that didn't make the playoffs, but view themselves as a team that could make the playoffs or the Saints, just, I think there's going to be a lot of wheeling and dealing, not crazy trades. It might be just a couple spots here and there. But my guess is we get over, if you gave me the over under five and a half trades on Thursday night, I'm taking the over. I'm taking the over. So I would expect moving and shaking. And this leads me to four. I think one team that coming from the teams, because I would say if you're in a single digits like the Chiefs moving up a couple of spots, Saints moving up a couple of spots, right? It's not that shot. We see those type of moves all the time. But typically we see a team in the teens come up, and that could be from like 19 to 11. That could be like 15 to 8. Like it feels like that happens every year. And the Lions, who have had a lot of reshuffling, right? They're moving Pene Sewell to left tackle. They have some turnover on their offensive line. Obviously, they have an opening at tackle with Pene moving. I think the Lions at 17 have moving up for a tackle written all over them. I saw McShea said this other day that I do wonder with the amount of us podcasters and talking heads, if teams... You know, it's one thing if you threw it to a bone 10, 20 years ago to like a newspaper reporter or a blog, but now you have so many people that talk to so many people in the league that's like, I'm here in this, I'm here in this. I've been around the NFL for a long time and I've been in one of those rooms around, you know, arguably the best of one of the best GMs of a generation. Whenever I hear, you know, the Eagles, you do not know what the Eagles are doing. You do not know what John Schneider is thinking. You do not know what Brett Beach is thinking. Now, you could kind of gauge where they should be at because of their roster. But any general manager worth their salt telling you what they're going to do, who's not like spy tech that has the number one overall pick, like we're taking Fernando Mendoza, they are, that is bad. That's stupid business. Historically, you know, Sean Payton sometimes liked to talk. And word got out, the Saints really liked Mahomes. And what happened? The Chiefs caught wind of it and they jumped them. And where did Mahomes end up? Not on the Saints. A couple years later, Sean Payton quit. So I think at this point in time, even in a bad draft, telling media people or people you're comfortable with, what you're going to do. And most of these organizations, and I have a lot of friends who are number twos or number threes in these teams, there is a separate conversation that the GM and the head coach and the owner have in a room by themselves. And they typically are not telling that entire room. Now they kind of find out maybe on draft night, and definitely once they start maneuvering, or talking about it in the draft room. But like you have an idea, you don't know exactly what your owner or what your head coach and GM are planning to do when you're picking in the mid teams. Now it's obvious, like the Lions, need some offensive line help, right? Specifically a tackle. I see the Eagles need an offensive line help. Well yeah, they've had some injuries, and Lane Johnson is getting long in the tooth, and who knows how much longer his body's gonna be put together. But if you tell me that all of a sudden the Eagles draft a wide receiver, or draft a different position, I am not tied in, I'm not gonna be stunned at all. Anyone saying like I know what they're gonna do, I just, I do not believe, or that person's incompetent, and he should be relieved of his duties. But I can see the Lions moving up seven or eight spots and taking an offensive line when they like, and kind of do the hardball style of like, we get a left and right tackle that we can build around, and we can get back to our roots of overpowering people. Number three, now we're gonna start getting some hot takes. I don't think it, you know, I've seen sometimes, you know, giants take a wide receiver at five. Have you guys followed the hardball family? Did you guys follow the Ravens for a long period of time when he was there with Ozzy and Eric DeCosta? I think it would take a Julio Jones, a Calvin Johnson, a historic impact player for them to consider taking a wide receiver at five. I would be stunned if they took a wide receiver at five. We know the Titans are not going to, we know the Browns are not going to, and more than likely the commanders have a ton of needs. The Saints definitely could consider it, but you could also easily argue Big Bane. I mean, the Chiefs could take a handful of players, a corner, Caleb Downs. I think, and to me, the Giants at 10, if they did take, let's say Sonny Stiles at five, or let's say they took, I don't even know. I think Sonny Stiles is the people most, guy most people think they're going to take, but let's say he's off the board. And I don't think they would take Jeremiah Love there either. I think they would take an offensive lineman. And then I think ideally they'd come back and get like Caleb Downs or a corner. But I don't think a wide receiver goes in the top 10. And obviously, with Tyson's injury, question marks, I think that's a very big stretch. And I just don't think Cardinal Tate most years is like going like somewhere between 18 and 25. So I would imagine, I mean, look at Abuca last year, like those guys, and it shows you, it kind of speaks to the depth and the power of this draft. So my bold prediction number three, no wide receiver goes in the top 10. Here's where I get really bold. At number one, you got Fernando Mendoza. Let's say the pass rushers in some order go two and three. My guess would be Reese at two, but it wouldn't be shocking at this point if Bailey goes, but I think in some order, they go two and three. I think you get to four. Salah said weeks ago, I like my running back room. He did a little hardball with the defensive line. I view defensive linemen as playmakers. Remember hardball when he took Joe Alt? I view them as the tip of the spear. That's the defensive line. Well, who was Salah around when he's been a star as a defensive coordinator? One of the best middle linebackers of his generation. And I'd argue the most important player on the Niners defense over the course of the last seven, eight years has not been Nick Bosa. It's been Fred Warner. And Salah had a front row seat to that. And he saw the impact he had when he went down. I do imagine that they have had long conversations of like, if we're going to take a non-premium position, should we go with Sonny Stiles? And then circle back later in the draft and get some sort of playmaker for offense. But do we have enough in the running back room to just last us this year? Obviously, Jeremiah Love is an excellent player. But I do think you could talk yourself out of it pretty easily when you look at the defensive roster. You have a defensive head coach. And you have a guy who could just be, what I've been told, and you watch his highlights, and you watch them play during the season. I mean, physically, he's got to be one of the better linebacker prospects of the Internet era. And there have been some great linebackers. I mean, Luke Keakley was the eighth overall pick. Roekwon Smith was the eighth overall pick. So we have seen some middle linebackers go relatively high recently. And I was told flat out, like, this guy is a better prospect than them. Doesn't mean he's going to be a better player, but he's a better 6'5, 4'4. He's like CEO character. I do think the Titans can go with Sonny Styles because everyone's telling me they're going to take Jeremiah Love. When everyone's telling you something, sometimes just go the other way. And it's not like Sonny Styles is not viewed as one of the best players in this draft. Definitely his upside is sky high. Now, the argument you would make is like, well, if we're not going to go a premium position, let's get the guy that can help our young quarterback that we just took number one overall. That's where I think the defensive head coach comes into play here. And if you told me that Callahan was still the coach, like the Titans weren't a disaster, he didn't get fired and he was rolling him back. I'd be like, yeah, they probably go with Jeremiah Love here. I do wonder if Robert Sala, because all I hear are this, Dan Quinn loves Sonny Styles. Who was Robert Sala's mentor? It's like Dan Quinn and Gus Bradley back in Seattle. Like that's the defense he learned from. Who did they play with back in the Seattle days? Bobby Wagner. Like I do think they value the linebacker position more than some. So, then you get to five. Look at their running back room in New York. It's not terrible. Obviously, can Scadaboo just be a healthy player in the NFL? Do I view him getting some big second contract? But can he play a couple years? Yes. Singletary had nine touchdowns. Tracy's like an explosive player. I think that running back room is fine. To me, even if Styles is off the board, so you go Mendoza, the two pass rushers, Styles, could they just take Caleb Downs right there at five? Like would John Harbaugh take a running back or Caleb Downs? And just go, we'll get the offensive line at 10. I think there's a chance that, and then Jeremiah Love, he's not going to go six to Cleveland. They just draft a running back high who was good. They probably go seven to Washington. But I don't think it's a lock. If Jeremiah Love played a different position, he wouldn't fall this far. Because I think we all agree pound for pound, he's one of the best players, not the best player in this draft. I do think you can talk yourself out of the position, though, especially if you just look at your room and like, it's more than serviceable. It's running back. Yeah, if you have Bijon, it's great. But just because you have Bijon doesn't guarantee anything. We see some of these teams. I mean, look at the Patriots last year. It's like room by committee. So my bold prediction is Jeremiah Love does not go in the top five. And I don't even think number one is a bold prediction. I just think this is going to happen. I think we see one quarterback get drafted, and that's Fernando Mendoza number one. I do not think that Ty Simpson goes in the first round. Because, I mean, this is classic, the hype, the talk, starting with Arlovski and CAA. You can force this. They sent them to the draft. There are going to be enough teams to go. One, how many teams need a quarterback? And all I've been told, and rightfully so, is like they're already thinking for next year when they have more picks. So the Browns aren't going to take them. I'm talking the first round. None of these teams are going to take them in the first round. And then the good teams, it's like, well, the Rams could take them at 13 and just get nothing out of the 13th overall pick in a year that, for them, is going to be win the NFC or bust. That's internally what the Rams are thinking. When they go to the Super Bowl, they're going to take a player that in a perfect world doesn't play a snap for them. Les Knee talked about Matt Stafford today. He's like, yeah, we're working through the contract. There's no drama behind this. It's going to be fine. He's our starting quarterback next year. That's not happening. If you're the Cardinals, if you're Matt LaFleur, you want to tie yourself to a guy that had nine good games in college, been a one year starter. I don't see it. I don't. So Fernando goes one. I don't know second round high. Sure. But I know everyone's been trying to force feed this guy in the first round. I'm even trying to take my bias out of it because I know some people in the league that like him. They think he's a good player. And I get it. He had some really good games earlier in his in the season. Then he got banged up and it just looked like a disaster at the end. But I think in no world that I remember, a guy like him is worthy of a first round pick based on his physical characteristics, based on his resume. We have some similar case studies over the course of the last five years, last six years, Kenny Pickett types, Mack Jones types. Couple years later, these guys are drafted 15th, 20th and they are backups. So to me, if I'm Ty Simpson, like you go to the draft, why would he go to the draft if he's not told he's a first round pick? Because how often are you invited to the draft? How many guys on a yearly basis get the phone call? Do you want to come to the NFL draft? 15 to 20? Kind of a big honor. So what? You go pick 38 the next day. It's an incredible experience. You get to walk out on stage in front of hundreds of thousands of people. I don't think it's that weird or even that like no one promised him anything. I just think he got invited because people think he might be a first round pick. This isn't, you know, Jeremiah Love. This isn't Carnell Tate, some guy that, listen, I don't know exactly what pick he's going to go, but he's going to go. This isn't Caleb Downs. This guy, we think he's going to go in the first round. We need a quarterback here because Fernando is going to be with his family in Miami. And he wanted to go, which I don't think is weird at all. If I was in his shoes, I'd fucking go too. Get to go there, get to go on the stage, hug Roger Goodell even if I'm the 40th pick. I don't even think it's embarrassing or anything. He was a one-year starter on one of the worst Alabama teams, last 20 years, and he got drafted pick 38. Seems pretty cool to me. Everyone's like, I don't think it's embarrassing at all. So I do not think Ty Simpson's off the board on Thursday night. The Volume.