transcript

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Speaker 2:
[02:45] Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email fantasybaseball at cbshi.com. Get ready to win your league. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott and Chris.

Speaker 1:
[03:09] Hey there! Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball Today on Thursday, April 23rd. I am Frank Stampfl, joined by Chris Towers. Today on the show, I've got some buyer sell, comma, buy low targets. Not confusing at all. More injuries to talk about and much more. Let's jump in. Oh, my goodness!

Speaker 2:
[03:30] Unbelievable!

Speaker 1:
[03:32] All right, we will get to Murakami at some point tonight. He did it again. He is homeward in five straight. And I just don't want to make him the player of the night every night. But yes, we will talk about Murakami because he is breaking baseball so far this season. Instead, we will start with much different players of the night. Chris, you are up first.

Speaker 3:
[03:53] I don't know. It's weird, right? Like, there are so many interesting and exciting players today. And I'm going to talk about Peter Lambert.

Speaker 1:
[03:59] What's going on? What?

Speaker 3:
[04:01] Journeyman Peter Lambert, former Rocky, career, like, I don't know, 6 ERA Peter Lambert, who wasn't all that good in Japan last year. But he's made two starts for the Houston Astros, starting pitcher Peter Lambert, for those of you don't know. And how could you not? He's actually looked pretty good. And he's kind of doing some interesting stuff in a way that I think needs to be highlighted. He shut out Cleveland on Wednesday, struck out eight over his six innings, walked three. That gives him, I think it's 16 strikeouts in his first two starts of the season. If I'm, yeah, 16 strikeouts in his first two starts of the season. He's got this 95 mile an hour fastball, which like that's slightly above average velocity for a right-handed starting pitcher now. But he does get like 17 inches of IVB and he's missing bats with it so far. The whiff rate is like 40% with that pitch for his first two starts. He had at least three whiffs on each of his four seamer change up slider and cutter. In this one, he had a bunch of whiffs in his first start. I think it's probably nothing, but he looks good. Like there's some stuff that looks pretty good here. The characteristics of his pitches look good. The Asher's have had success with these kind of out of nowhere journeyman pitchers over the past couple of years. Remember, there was a Jason Alexander guy who was pretty useful for a stretch last year. Jensen Junk had some useful stretches with them. There was another guy last year who was pretty useful for a little while, and then he had Tommy John surgery, I think. But the point is they've done a good job with these seemingly fringe talents, and Lambert is doing some interesting things. He's RP for your head-to-head points league, so I think in some deeper points leagues he's worth a look. It's probably just AL only, and maybe deeper points leagues because of that RP eligibility. But Baltimore is not a horrifying matchup. He does get the Dodgers after that, so I do not think you're going to want to start Peter Lambert for two starts in a row. But in some of those big, in some of those deeper leagues, Peter Lambert might be worth looking at.

Speaker 1:
[06:26] And we have a ton of pitching injuries too. I know in a few 15-team roto leagues, I've had a bunch of pitcher injuries, and you look at the waiver wire, there's nothing out there right now. We do have a few call-ups, you know, like Christian Scott now is in our lives, and J.R.Ritchie, we'll talk about him in a little bit.

Speaker 3:
[06:44] Yeah, I don't think the Braves guys are gonna matter much, unfortunately.

Speaker 1:
[06:47] I agree with that, and not because they're not good, it's just because it seems like it's spot starts, but we'll talk about those guys in a little bit. But yeah, I mean, some of those deeper leagues with all the injuries we've suffered, we do have to try and, you know, dive deep on the waiver wire, and Peter Lambert, to his credit, I mean, this was a very interesting start for him. Reminder of what he did in Japan last year, a 426 ERA, 150 whip, 8K per nine, four walks per nine. So, we'll see what he could do as an encore. He is at the Orioles next week, only 3% rostered. And again, you mentioned RP only for those who play in Head to Head points leagues. Again, that is Peter Lambert. My player of the night here is Josh Jung, who I'm trying to figure out might be a thing. Obviously comes with a ton of prospect pedigree. Feels like a decade ago at this point. It probably wasn't that long, but he was a big prospect. It's, you know, he's had some solid seasons, but dealt with a lot of injuries and hasn't really lived up to expectations. But he went two for four with his third home run. He's hitting over 300 so far. He's got an 883 OPS. The biggest thing for him is he's cut the strikeout rate way down so far this season. 18% on the K rate. In his career, 27%. The expected stats seem to like him. It's a 311XBA, 436X slug, 91.4 average exit velocity. Hasn't really been barreling it up a ton, but just hitting a lot of line drives and making a lot of contact, specifically in the zone. His zone contact is up from 82% to 91%. So we have a pretty long track record of Josh Jung being very fringy. But at a weak third base position, Chris, if you kind of took the bargain approach on draft day with like a Kazuma Okamoto or Royce Lewis or anyone else who was on the fringes of the top 12, I'm not saying you have to drop those guys for Josh Jung, drop somebody else on your team, but you want to ride the hot hands just to see if he can keep this going. I don't really have a problem with it, mostly because it's a really bad position right now.

Speaker 3:
[08:56] Yeah, I don't think, like we like Kazuma Okamoto, but I'm not 100% sure Kazuma Okamoto is a more talented player than Josh Jung, who has dealt with a ton of injuries, was pretty bad last year, but remember, he was a 23 homer guy in 122 games in 2023, and that strikeout rate is down to 18%. The whiff rate is much better as well. He's making a ton of contact, and he's hitting the ball hard. 91.4 mile per hour average exit velocity. It's actually weird that his barrel rate is so low. He only has one barrel on the season because he's hitting 91 mile per hour average exit velocity. 10.3 degree average launch angle is not, like it's not like he's spraying line drives everywhere necessarily, but it's surprising that more of those haven't been barrels. I'm not sure what's up with that, but he has the highest average exit velocity since 2023 and the best expected Woban contact of his career since 2023, along with the lowest strikeout rate. So he's doing a lot of things well right now. So yeah, I'm not saying Josh Jung is definitely a superstar or even definitely a starting caliber third baseman, but like you said, the position's so bad. I do think there's some merit to just, unless you got a really good one and there aren't that many of them, just kind of play the hot hand here.

Speaker 1:
[10:27] Yeah, I think that's well said. The back end of the top 12, it's Esau Paredes, which yeah, I would just continue to start him because I think better days are coming for him. Okamoto we liked, but he still is kind of a mystery bag and he has struggled with strikeouts early on in his major league career. And Royce Lewis just came back from injury, but not off to the best start either. And those are guys that I have in that 12 to 15 range. So yeah, just on that fringe of being a potential starting third baseman. And yeah, I think you go ahead and ride the hot hand here with Josh Jung. There might be a little bit extra something there. Before we hit our first break, if you enjoy the podcast, feel free to leave us a five star rating and review on both Apple and Spotify. If you're watching on YouTube, you can scan that QR code. It'll take you right to our FBT Spotify feed. Let's take that break and we'll be back right after this. This time of year always makes me rethink my closet, trying to keep fewer things, but pieces that actually feel special and wear well. That's exactly why I keep coming back to Quince. Their fabrics feel elevated, the fits are thoughtful, and the pricing actually makes sense. Their linen pants and shirts are lightweight, breathable and comfortable. The kind of pieces that make spring mornings feel effortless. Honestly, I didn't expect them to look so polished while feeling so relaxed. And their flow-knit active wear, it's unbelievably soft, moisture-wicking and anti-odor. Perfect for wearing all day. What I love most is that Quince gives you high quality pieces without the designer markup. By working directly with ethical factories and cutting out the middlemen, they keep prices 50 to 60 percent lower than similar brands. Everything is made to last, so building a simpler, better wardrobe actually works. Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to quince.com/fbt for free shipping and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada too. Go to quince.com/fbt for free shipping and 365-day returns. quince.com/fbt.

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Speaker 1:
[14:30] Welcome back in Fantasy Baseball Today. Lots of news and notes to go over and more injuries, unfortunately. The Rangers placed Wyatt Langford on the IL with a grade 1 flexor strain. The expectation is that he will only need the 10 days. And it's been a pretty disastrous start, Chris. We've had a quad strain, we've had obviously this flexor strain. He hasn't really done much when he has played so far this season. People are very frustrated. I see the comments, I see people in the chat, I get tweets about Wyatt Langford. I still think that he is an uber-talented player, but it's been really frustrating. So I totally get that. Some replacements that you can look for in shallower leagues, and I'm sure we'll have a few outfielders on Scott's sleeper hitter list that you can target just for next week. But some other replacements, Jack Caglione, these are names between 70 and 80 percent rostered. Jack Caglione, Dale Elisle, now has three home runs in his past five games. Jeremiah Jackson, who continues to hit well. Some names in medium-sized leagues, Jorge Soler, Lourdes Gurriel, Angel Martinez, Luke Reilly, Jake Bowers. And in deeper leagues, Sam Antonacci now has outfield eligibility, Leoti Tavares, Everson Pereira. So again, those are the names you can look at, shallow, medium and deeper sized leagues.

Speaker 3:
[15:49] I will say, Dale Elisle, I think, is just a must roster player. I think that dude is just good. He's got a 303 expected batting average in each of his first two seasons. Very small sample sizes, but he also has a 350x Woba in both of his first two seasons. He hits the ball pretty hard. He makes a lot of contact. I think he'll get to it slightly differently. He's not quite a contact maven like Stephen Kwan, but I think the production is going to be pretty similar. Stephen Kwan's been a must start outfielder most of his career in both points and Roto. I think this is a true batting average standout, and I think he's going to be a 15-15 guy. I think Dale Elisle is really good. That's a flag I'm planting a little bit. And then I like, actually, Everson Pereira is kind of interesting.

Speaker 1:
[16:43] Former Yankee great.

Speaker 3:
[16:45] Former Yankee great. He was still putting up good numbers in the minors. He's hitting the ball hard. His plate discipline stinks, but he's going to play for the White Sox. It's mildly interesting to see what Everson Pereira is doing, at least in deeper leagues. 384 expected Woba early on. It's a very small sample size again, but I think he's worth a look in 15 team leagues.

Speaker 1:
[17:13] Yeah, I hadn't realized the batted ball metrics really good for Pereira. 90.3 average exit velocity, 15% barrel rate, 269 XBA, 555 X slug there for Pereira.

Speaker 3:
[17:26] And honestly, man, Wyatt Langford going on the IOL right now, almost a little bit of a blessing in disguise because you shouldn't drop him. You shouldn't have been thinking about dropping him. But I know some of you were. I know how this works. I know some of you wanted to drop Wyatt Langford. And now that's off the plate. You can just stash him in your IOL for at least the next two weeks and regroup.

Speaker 1:
[17:54] This next one, Chris, you cannot make it up. Francisco Lindor left Wednesday's game with calf tightness on the day that Juan Soto returned from the IOL from a calf injury. So you cannot make that one up. The good news is that the Mets finally ended their 12 game losing streak. If you, I assume this is going to wind up in an IOL stint. They said Lindor is going for an MRI on Thursday. But if you need replacements, shortstop, not a great position to need replacements for. But some names in shallower leagues, Dansby Swanson and Andres Jimenez. Medium sized leagues, I have Ezekiel Tovar, Mason Nguyen, Jose Fernandez and in deeper leagues, Nassim Nunez. He'll give you a speed and nothing else.

Speaker 3:
[18:37] Literally nothing else. He is a poor man's Jose Caballero. That is about the most insulting thing you can say about a baseball player.

Speaker 1:
[18:44] Yeah. Then I have Brian Roquio and JP Crawford. Look, if you're in a deeper league and you lost Lindor, I'm sorry because there's not much out there.

Speaker 3:
[18:52] I will say, Dan's response is having one of the weirdest years of anybody in baseball. He's got a ton of RBI and runs. Like I think he's on like a 100 plus run and RBI pace and he's hitting like 170. It's so weird.

Speaker 1:
[19:05] Yeah. I saw that he hit his fifth home run the other day, but I looked at the batting average and I'm like, eh, 179. It's not great. Didier Fuentes was recalled to start Wednesday and we're all excited about it. Didn't look so great. Well, under the hood did some nice things, the final line, three innings, seven hits, four runs, seven strikeouts to one walk. He did have 15 whiffs on 74 pitches. His velocity was up. He averaged 97 miles per hour on his fastball, but also allowed a lot of hard contact here. He was also sent down right after the start and JR Richie, we learned, will start on Thursday. So do you hold on to Didier Fuentes here?

Speaker 3:
[19:47] I want to do some level setting, some expectation setting with Didier Fuentes, because I feel like people are talking about this kid as if it's like rookie Spencer Strider level stuff, and I don't think he's that kind of talent. He's impressive, but outside of the incredible spring training, which I think was just nine innings, we don't really have a ton to suggest that Didier Fuentes is, again, a true superstar who just needs his opportunity kind of talent. I think it's very good stuff, but the pictureless PLV stat gave him a B for stuff today. TJ Stats version of Stuff Plus was like 104, I think, or 106 today. That's good, but it is not, wow, this guy just needs his opportunity. It's like, yeah, if he gets his opportunity and he commands his stuff well, he could be a pretty good pitcher. But I do not think Didier Fuentes is a guaranteed impact arm. And I don't think he's getting the opportunity, at least right now, because like you said, they just sent him down, they would need someone to go on the IL to be able to call him up within the next 10 days. They've already called up JR Richie. I think JR Richie is probably closer to being ready to help the Braves right now, given his age and experience, but I don't think he's going to stick around either.

Speaker 1:
[21:20] Right.

Speaker 3:
[21:21] You know, I think de Fuentes only got called up because Reynaldo Lopez pitched one inning on Tuesday. Right, it was Tuesday?

Speaker 1:
[21:27] Yes, yep.

Speaker 3:
[21:29] I think they just needed some length and they wanted to piggyback him with Martin Perez, which is what they did. JR Richie will start on Thursday, but Spencer Strider makes what is expected to be his last rehab start on Saturday. I think what I read is he's expected to draw 85 pitches in that game. If all goes well, he's probably going to be promoted after that. And I don't know, maybe Ronaldo Lopez has hurt and they just haven't reported it yet. I would guess Martin Perez is out of the rotation as soon as Spencer Strider is back, but that's five guys unless Ronaldo Lopez is out.

Speaker 1:
[22:00] Yeah.

Speaker 3:
[22:01] So I just don't think there's an opportunity right now for Fuentes or Richie. Life finds a way and there will be opportunities for them, but I don't think either Fuentes or JR Richie needs to be rostered in most leagues right now.

Speaker 1:
[22:16] And just a reminder on Fuentes, he's 20 years old. He is super young. So it is a lot to ask him to be great right away, but he looked great in spring training, and that's why we were all excited about him. Let's talk a little bit more about JR Richie. He is starting on Thursday, making his major league debut. Five starts at AAA this year, a.99 ERA, a.102 WIP, over a strikeout per inning, four walks per nine. Obviously, that's high. Gets a good amount of ground balls. Like you said, I think this is probably just a spot start. He could make it a little bit tougher if he just goes out there and has an amazing start. Maybe the Braves try and go with a six-man rotation so they could stretch guys out or whatever it might be, but he's only 17% rostered. Do you look to add JR Richie? Because I mostly agree, I feel like it's just a spot start on Thursday.

Speaker 3:
[23:09] Look, if you've got a dead roster spot and there's literally no one interesting in your league available, sure, go ahead and add him. I think JR Richie's more talented than Christian Scott. I think Christian Scott has a better opportunity to stick around if he's good though.

Speaker 1:
[23:26] Yeah.

Speaker 3:
[23:27] So that's tough. I lean towards Richie kind of being someone who can definitely watch on Thursday. I'm excited to see his major league debut, but he's also not, like his stuff is not on Didier Fuentes' level. He's more of a deep pitch mix guy, supposed to be a command guy, although the walk rates have actually been not great throughout his minor league career. So I'm excited and interested to watch JR Richie pitch. I think it's unlikely that he's going to be a big impact arm right now.

Speaker 1:
[24:06] And it is tough because we do have decisions to make right now. Every week there's like a new wave of pitchers that are coming that you've got to make decisions on. Last week we had the Arrogantty and Detmers and Mick Abel before he got hurt group. And this week it's Chase Doehwander who continues to pitch really well.

Speaker 3:
[24:23] And I would prioritize him above either of those Braves guys.

Speaker 1:
[24:26] Peyton Tully who's going to make a start this weekend too. And even Christian Scott. So it's like, yeah, there's another wave of pitchers. And so if JR Richie isn't sticking around, it's hard to take him over any of those other names that I just mentioned. Mike L. Garcia left Wednesday with pain in his elbow. After the game, he said he does expect to play on Friday. Roman Anthony was out of the lineup due to a sore back. They are hopeful that he will be ready to go on Thursday. John Schneider did not commit to Jeff Hoffman as his closer when asked about it on Wednesday. Louis Varlin relieved Hoffman and picked up the save on Tuesday night. I haven't seen confirmation on this, Chris. My guess is that the next save opportunity will go to Louis Varlin. But it's just a guess.

Speaker 3:
[25:11] Just from seeing how the Blue Jays operate, it really, really feels like they want Jeff Hoffman to be the closer. And it's not just that they I think they still have faith in Jeff Hoffman. And look, he has the second highest K per nine in baseball right now. He has a 44% strikeout rate. Like he is not a complete disaster. But he's failed more often as the closer than not over the past year plus for them. I think it mostly comes down to in an ideal world, they just love having both Louis Varlin and Tyler Rogers available as just those high volume rubber armed firemen. They just love having those two guys who can just pitch every single day if they need them. They'd prefer not to have to use one of them in the closer role. But Jeff Hoffman's been so bad for most of his time with the team, that I do think we've reached a point where it's just untenable to keep him in that role. So I think they've got to try Louis Varlin, at least for now. I think he might just be the better pitcher than Jeff Hoffman.

Speaker 1:
[26:18] I think it could be a situation where Hoffman eventually gets the job back. But if Louis Varlin gets the next save opportunity, and the next one after that, and he just looks as good as he has in that setup role, then there might not be an opportunity for Jeff Hoffman to get that job back. So it is a tough situation if you have Jeff Hoffman on rosters right now. Obviously, if it's possible in a Categories League, I would try to have him and Louis Varlin if it's possible. Carlos Mendoza said he has not considered removing Devon Williams from the closer role. If he did, I believe Luke Weaver would probably be next up. And speaking of which, Luke Weaver got the final out of the 8th inning on Wednesday night, and then the Mets took the lead in the 9th. Weaver stayed out there for the 9th. He closed out the game. He struck out three. He picked up the win. He's been a little bit shaky himself, but obviously Devon Williams, it's three rough outings in a row. So my guess is the next save opportunity will go to Devon Williams. But, you know, I think it's a very short leash for him right now. There it is, the Padres sign Lucas Gilito to a one year deal. And it makes a lot of sense because they were incredibly thin and lost Nick Pavetta. Last year in 26 starts, 341 ERA, a 129 whip. The K to walk stuff, not very good. 10% swinging strike rate, 6% rostered. I think it's more of a deep league thing. Do you have any interest in Lucas Gilito?

Speaker 3:
[27:43] I think I would rather have Randy Vasquez than Lucas Gilito.

Speaker 1:
[27:48] 100%, yeah. And I think pretty much all the young up and coming names we just spoke about, I would rather have those than Gilito as well.

Speaker 3:
[27:57] Like we're probably not talking about a start next week for Lucas Gilito. He's going to have to ramp up.

Speaker 1:
[28:02] He did say that he's been kind of like on a pitcher schedule and keeping his pitch count up, doing his own thing, but it's going to take a little bit of time.

Speaker 3:
[28:10] Maybe he's a veteran. Maybe they just are willing to do it. There was someone who signed and then started like three days ago, a couple of weeks ago. I can't remember who it was.

Speaker 1:
[28:17] Patrick Corbin? That sounds like Patrick Corbin.

Speaker 3:
[28:19] I think that was Patrick Corbin. It could happen, but I don't know. I wrote about Braxton Garrett today in the newsletter for tomorrow morning. I think I'd rather, if I was speculating, I'd rather go with Braxton Garrett than Lucas Gilito.

Speaker 1:
[28:31] Did Jensen junk leave with an injury today? I saw he left after just 56 pitches.

Speaker 3:
[28:35] No, I think it was just a third time through the order thing. It was weird.

Speaker 1:
[28:38] Huh, yeah, that is weird. JT Real Mutuo was placed in the IL with a lower back injury. The Orioles placed Ryan Helsley on the bereavement list. It was Anthony Nunez who picked up the save for the Orioles on Wednesday. Gabriel Moreno is on track to be activated on Tuesday of next week. Quinn Priestor began a rehab assignment at AAA on Wednesday. He was expected to throw around 40 pitches, but his first inning was such a disaster. He only recorded two outs. He was charged with four runs, three walks, a hit by pitch, two strikeouts, and his velocity was down two to three miles per hour. Coming back from this, I don't even know what to call it. They just said a thoracic outlet symptoms. So I don't know what that means.

Speaker 3:
[29:21] I am not a doctor.

Speaker 1:
[29:23] Sounds bad.

Speaker 3:
[29:24] But I can't imagine this is going to end with anything other than him undergoing surgery at some point. It's just, it's always, if you have a chance to avoid surgery, I think it makes sense to try. But, yeah, that's a really bad first start back.

Speaker 1:
[29:43] Aaron Boone said Anthony Volpe is still 10 to 14 days away from joining the team. And Denzel Clark was placed on the aisle with a bone bruise in his right foot. They were called Colby Thomas from Triple A. Colby Thomas has always hit well at Triple A this year, 309 batting average, five homers, 19 RBI, 971 OPS, 91.5 average exit velocity. But whenever they've called them up, they've only used him as a short side platoon. I would like to see what he could do with everyday playing time, especially in that ballpark. But I don't know if that is something the A's will commit to, but he's a deep league name to watch there. Colby Thomas. Buy or sell? I will make a statement and Chris, you tell me if you buy or sell it. Michael Harris is off to a great start. Two for four with a double dong and he is up to six homers. He's got two steals, hitting 296, 880 OPS, and he is hitting the ball harder than ever before. 94.3 average EV. His pulled air rate is up so far this season. Buy or sell? We are in for Michael Harris' best season yet.

Speaker 3:
[30:51] You know what? Buy! Yeah! Because I think people can forget. And I like to point it out every time we talk about him. I think he just turned 25 a couple of weeks ago. He is really young still. And he's been around forever. His best season was 2022 when he was a 21-year-old rookie. He had 19 homers, 20 stolen bases. He hit 297. It's hard to project to anyone to hit 297 every year. That's really tough to do. So I'm not sure he'll match that batting average. But yeah, I think it's reasonable to think that a 25-year-old version of Michael Harris should be better than the 21-year-old version of him. He's a super high-variance player. There will be some really low downsides for sure.

Speaker 1:
[31:38] We know that. It's nice to see him finally get off to a good start instead of... I feel like every year he just gets off to a bad start.

Speaker 3:
[31:44] And his walk rate is not good, but it's better than normal. It's 6.1%. His chase rate, again, not good, 39.8%, but that's three percentage points lower than it was last season. I'm going to be optimistic and say that Michael Harris is going to hit the high end of his variance this year.

Speaker 1:
[32:06] It is April 23rd. Michael Harris already has 31% of the walks that he had all of last season.

Speaker 3:
[32:13] Yeah, that makes sense.

Speaker 1:
[32:14] That's five walks versus 16 all of last year. James Wood just keeps on mashing two for three with two walks at his ninth home run. This one came off of a lefty two. I don't know, is there another hitter that has this easy power to the opposite field? Aaron Judge comes to mind, obviously. I think Nick Kurtz is really good all over the field too, but James Wood might be the third best power hitter to the opposite field. I don't care about his pulled air rate because he hits the ball so hard and he can seemingly hit it out to the opposite field like whatever he wants. So his expected stats are bananas. He is hitting the ball way harder than last year. Still striking out 30% of the time, but the walk rate is up a crazy amount too. So buy or sell, 40-20 season incoming for James Wood, who already has nine homers and four seals.

Speaker 3:
[33:13] I'll sell it. I'll take the under on both, but he's done as much as he could possibly do to answer the very loud questions that some of us were asking. Some of us might have made him the cover boy for one of their Bust articles. I don't know who that would be, but I think their name starts with Chris. Ends with Towers.

Speaker 1:
[33:39] Oh man. I just checked the Tout Wars Champions League because I was afraid that I did this. I drafted Pete Crow Armstrong over James Wood.

Speaker 3:
[33:49] Yeah, that feels bad. Is PCA on this?

Speaker 1:
[33:55] He is coming later on as a by-law candidate.

Speaker 3:
[33:58] Okay.

Speaker 1:
[33:59] But yeah, obviously, that's not looking very good so far. But those two were tied together so much because they both had the really bad second halves last year and we had questions on both of them coming in and just like are they worth the third round pick given what we saw in the second half? And it's early but James Wood and this new nationals regime who has this offense playing very well so far to start the season, they might have figured some things out with him and so far he is putting his massive tools to work here. Again, that is James Wood. I would buy that. I think he can actually get to 40-20 this year. O'Neil Cruz hit a go ahead homer off of a lefty. Chris, did you see this homerun? Yeah. Off of the top of the foul pole. The very top of the foul pole. The ball hit it and the ball actually landed in the upper deck. Someone who got that ball never expected to get a baseball in a game here on Wednesday night based on where they were sitting, which is this crazy stuff for O'Neil Cruz. But it was his seventh homerun. It was off of a lefty as I mentioned and his updated numbers against lefties. He is hitting 387 with four homeruns and a 1263 OPS. The expected stats look great and his pulled air rate has more than doubled so far this season. That is massive given how hard he hits the ball. Buy or sell 30-30 season incoming for O'Neil Cruz. Finally gets there.

Speaker 3:
[35:31] I don't want people to yell at me, but I'm going to sell it. I just, outside of the performance against lefties, which has been remarkable, four homers and 33 played appearances is crazy for a guy who has struggled the way he has. It's still a 33% strikeout rate against lefties. And if you look at everything else, there's not really that much to indicate that he's a different player. He's getting much better results so far. He's hitting the ball incredibly hard. He is pulling the ball a lot more. That's the one big change.

Speaker 1:
[36:09] That's why I think he can have a career-best power season.

Speaker 3:
[36:11] And maybe that's enough, but the play discipline is still really bad. He actually has a higher whiff rate than ever before. If I'm going to be skeptical about O'Neill Cruz coming into the season, I just don't think the 33 plate appearances against lefties is enough to change my opinion. I acknowledge it's looking dumb right now, and it may continue to look dumb. He's uber talented, but I'm going to try to remain consistent on my analysis here.

Speaker 1:
[36:47] The crazy part about this is that we did see this last season, right?

Speaker 3:
[36:51] Yeah, it was awesome in April.

Speaker 1:
[36:52] By the end of April last year, O'Neill Cruz was hitting 253 with eight home runs, 12 steals, and a 902 OPS. So he was doing the same exact thing. Right now, he wasn't hitting lefties the way that he is right now, and I would have to look into it, but I'm pretty sure he was not pulling the ball in the air as much as he is right now as well. I hear you, and I appreciate the consistency, but the fact that the pull to air rate is up, I kind of buy that we can get to like... Like the 30 steals for me is not in question. It's just like, can he get to the 30 home runs? And if he maintains pulling the ball in the air, then I think 30 home runs is like super easy for him to get to. So, where will the batting average get to you? To me, that's the bigger question.

Speaker 3:
[37:36] I'm nervous. Like, there's no question about it, that he was like the biggest flag plant I had. And, I don't know, I had some... Yourdon Alvarez was a pretty big one. But on the bust side, I think O'Neil Cruz was probably my biggest flag plant. And right now, it's looking pretty bad.

Speaker 1:
[37:57] Let's talk about Munetaka Murakami, three for five with his 10th homerun, 110.2 exit velocity, 451 feet. He has homered in five straight. And per Sarah Langs, Murakami's 10 homeruns are the most by any Japanese-born player in their first 24 games. That includes Shohei Otani and Hideki Matsui and any other great Japanese hitter that you can think of. Murakami has been better than those guys in his first 24 games. So, buy or sell? I could go either way here, because one of them's a little ridiculous, but Murakami will lead all first basemen in homeruns. How about that?

Speaker 3:
[38:40] Sell.

Speaker 1:
[38:41] All right, do you buy that he's gonna hit 40 homeruns? The crazy part, I say 40, because he has 10, and I looked into the-

Speaker 3:
[38:49] Yeah, he only needs 30 the rest of the way.

Speaker 1:
[38:50] The projection systems, there are two different projection systems, Steamer and the Bat, that have him projected for 30 more homeruns the rest of the way.

Speaker 3:
[38:58] So the big flaw with Murakami is still there, right?

Speaker 1:
[39:04] Zone contact, bad.

Speaker 3:
[39:06] The zone contact is 68%. In the 10 full seasons in the Staticast era, so that is 2015 through 2025, take out 2020. That's fake. So in the 10 full seasons that we have data for, there have been three seasons where a player has had a in-zone contact rate below 70%. Would you like to guess who that was? I'll give you a hint. You only have to come up with one name.

Speaker 1:
[39:38] Joey Gallo?

Speaker 3:
[39:39] It was Joey Gallo three different times, 2017, 2018 and 2021. He had a zone contact rate below 70% in those three years. It's the only time a player has qualified for the batting title with a zone contact rate below 70%. That is where Munetaka Murakami is. Would you like to know how many homeruns Joey Gallo hit in those three seasons?

Speaker 1:
[40:01] I'm looking at it now. So, yeah, 38 or more in each of them.

Speaker 3:
[40:05] Yeah, it was 38, 40 and 41, I believe. The batting averages were awful. I think it was sub 200 one year and sub 210 the other two. And if you want to be a hater and believe me, I am aware that there was no shortage of Munetaka Murakami haters out there on Fantasy Baseball Twitter this off season. There was a lot of people who thought this guy had no chance of being a major league caliber hitter.

Speaker 1:
[40:33] Major league teams didn't believe it.

Speaker 3:
[40:35] Sure. If you want to be a hater, you can point out that like every home run is off a miserable pitch. Like he hit the home run off Jeffrey Springs on Sunday, I think it was or Monday, and it was like the cement mixer is cement mixer slider you have ever seen. It was like dead middle of the zone, 83 miles an hour. It was an awful pitch. The home run today was like a 91 mile per hour fastball. It wasn't quite middle middle. It was like middle down, but it was a pretty bad pitch.

Speaker 1:
[41:09] That's what you're supposed to do, right?

Speaker 3:
[41:10] But yeah, that's the thing is like, I don't know, man, pitchers are going to make mistakes. It's really hard to pitch. He makes phenomenal swing decisions. Whatever you want to say about his contact skills, Munetaka Murakami has been incredibly patient. His chase rate is below 20 percent. The flaws are real and they're scary, but he is doing exactly what he's supposed to do to survive. There's some Kyle Schwabber in here. I think the contact issues are a little more alarming than with Kyle Schwabber. Kyle Schwabber is usually more like 73, 75 percent in zone. Munetaka Murakami, again, 68 percent. I also think it's worth remembering, though, this is his first 24 games, and he is dealing with a new league with pitchers he's never seen before. He's dealing with a new culture, which we don't talk about a lot, but as we see with Tetsuya Amai, that stuff matters. That's hard. And so, pitchers will adjust. Maybe he gets figured out. I think that's all possible, but it's also possible that he gets better, too. That this is the first time he's seeing the caliber of pitching he's seeing, and that the flaws will become a little less pronounced. So, 40's a hard number to hit. Not a lot of players hit 40 homers. Not a lot of players have a 10 homer lead 24 games into the season, though. I think he's going to get close to 40 homers.

Speaker 1:
[42:38] The one thing that stands out different than Joey Gallo too, as bad as both of their zone contacts are and very comparable, Joey Gallo's strikeout rates were consistently in the mid 30s, 35-36%. Right now, Murakami's at 30%. So, that can keep the batting average a little bit higher than the Mendoza line, like 220-230. If we get a 230-40 hitting, like, yeah, that's it.

Speaker 3:
[43:03] That's what Kyle Schorber did before he leveled up two years ago.

Speaker 1:
[43:06] Exactly. Yeah. And shout out to, I had on this off season, Yaqu Kazmopolitan who covers the NPB. And he said the high-end outcome for Murakami is Nick Kurtz. And he looks a lot like Nick Kurtz so far this season.

Speaker 3:
[43:21] Do you have Nick Kurtz on the by-law?

Speaker 1:
[43:23] I don't. I have him as someone who's heating up, but he's coming around.

Speaker 3:
[43:27] Okay. Then I'll save it for that point.

Speaker 1:
[43:29] Colson Montgomery, he quietly, next to Murakami, has Homer to enforce straight. He now has 28 home runs in his first 95 games. So, by herself, this one's kind of crazy too, but by herself, Montgomery will lead short stops in home runs this season.

Speaker 3:
[43:47] Okay, let me take a look. Cause there's a lot of great players at shortstop, but the power hitters are Corey Seeger, who gets hurt a lot, Gunnar Henderson, who...

Speaker 1:
[43:58] Ellie leads the position right now with eight.

Speaker 3:
[44:00] He's got eight? Yeah. You know, I'm looking at the bat projections the rest of the season. They've got Gunnar at the top, Corey Seeger, Zach Neto, Willie Adonis.

Speaker 1:
[44:11] Yeah, Gunnar's good.

Speaker 3:
[44:11] Close to Montgomery.

Speaker 1:
[44:12] Yeah, it's not far off, actually.

Speaker 3:
[44:14] Close to Montgomery at 23. Yeah, I... I'll sell it, but it's not crazy. It's not crazy that this guy could hit 35 homers and lead short stops. That's a reasonable-ish projection for him.

Speaker 1:
[44:30] The one thing that's weird about him is that he has a 30% strikeout rate, but his quality of contact has been bad so far. And his expected stats are awful. So I don't really know what to do with that for close to Montgomery.

Speaker 3:
[44:42] Is his cold air rate still super high? Cause it was last year.

Speaker 1:
[44:45] That is a good question and might be what is helping him so far.

Speaker 3:
[44:50] Yeah, it was 27% last year. It's 30% this year.

Speaker 1:
[44:54] That'll do.

Speaker 3:
[44:56] I would guess he'll be better than 88 mile per hour average exit velocity moving forward. I think the raw power is better than that. And there are real concerns here about his zone contact rate, which is down to 73% after being 80% last year. And he does not have Munetaka Murakami's plate discipline. So Montgomery is a super flawed player. And you're looking at a really low batting average, but I think he's a legit powerheader. I think he's gonna be a 30 homer guy.

Speaker 1:
[45:23] All right, let's take our final break. When were your turn? I have a few picture by yourselves. We'll talk about those right after this. You know that feeling when money just slips through your fingers? I used to spend three hours every Sunday just digging through bank statements, trying to figure out where my cash was going. It was exhausting. And honestly, I'd rather do literally anything else. Then I started using Rocket Money. With Rocket Money, I can see all my accounts, checkings, savings, even investments in one place. It automatically categorizes my transactions, tracks subscriptions, and I can cancel anything I don't need with just a few taps. I was shocked to find I'd been paying for Hulu twice. And it's not just about cutting costs. Setting budgets and goals helped me save over $70 in the first 30 days without even thinking about it. Rocket Money is a personal finance app that helps find and cancel unwanted subscriptions, monitors your spending and helps lower your bills so you can grow your savings. Let Rocket Money help you reach your financial goals faster. Join at rocketmoney.com/fbt. That's rocketmoney.com/fbt. rocketmoney.com/fbt. If you love baseball, DirecTV is your go-to this season. DirecTV has the most MLB games in one place. It's your home for baseball all season long. You can catch all the action with access to ESPN Unlimited and MLBTV. Every strikeout, every steal, every save, all streaming live so you don't miss a single inning. You can stream games across your devices, no satellite required, and witness the action unfold across the league. With Sports Central on DirecTV, you can see your teams in one streamlined hub. Keep up with live scores and stats in real time so you can see who's up and who's down without switching apps. Never ask, what's the score again? Sign up now at directv.com. Claim based on total games carried on sports networks, sports availability varies by zip code and requires choice package. Visit directv.com for more details. Major League Baseball trademarks and copyrights are used with permission of Major League Baseball. Visit mlb.com. Welcome back in Fantasy Baseball Today. Continuing on with some buy or sell. Jack Leiter was meh against the Pirates. Five innings, five hits, four runs, three of those earned. Five strikeouts to two walks. Did have 15 whiffs on 84 pitches. He was actually cruising until the fifth inning where he allowed three runs. He also took a bad spill on a play where he was trying to back up a throw to home plate. He like kind of hyper extended his knee. Didn't look very good, but he did stay in to finish the inning. Last three starts for Jack Leiter. 691 ERA and a 181 whip. Buy or sell, we got duped by Jack Leiter. Based on his first two starts.

Speaker 3:
[48:09] I think Jack Leiter is an American legal drama television series with a US Navy theme that originally aired on NBC for one season from September 23rd, 1995 to May 22nd, 1996. And then on CBS for an additional nine seasons from January 1997 to April 2025, or 2005. I love that show. Jag is what I think Jack Leiter is. Jag Leiter, just a guy. I just, yeah, I don't see it. I don't think he's, I think he's just, look, Kumar Rocker's had a couple of good starts recently, right, and if you just swapped the order, is Kumar Rocker the guy we would have been excited about after the first two starts?

Speaker 1:
[49:00] The thing with the first couple of starts for Leiter is that he was doing things a little bit differently, like the change up looked really good. He has this new cutter that he was using, but obviously these next three starts were not nearly as good. So I don't think I would drop him still. I still think there's enough upside there. He's at the Tigers and home against the Yankees next week. I might do it in a points league, in a categories league. It's a little bit risky.

Speaker 3:
[49:25] And I don't think he's useless. It's just, I think it's a high 3 ZRA. And I don't think it's gonna be a great whip. And I think it's gonna be pretty good strikeout rate. I think you'll get good strikeouts from him. But I do not think, I do not have a lot of faith in Jack Leiter as just a set it and forget it guy.

Speaker 1:
[49:43] Braxton Ashcraft had a strong start at the Rangers. Seven innings, two runs, five strikeouts, 14 whiffs on 94 pitches. Has two really good breaking balls, has two decently fast fastballs with a fastball in the sinker here. By or sell Ashcraft better than Bubba Chandler rest of season.

Speaker 3:
[50:02] Nah, I saw that one. I think Ashcraft is pretty good. There's a lot to like there. But Bubba Chandler is, I think, a much more talented pitcher. He's figuring it out. He's figuring out the pitch mix. He's figuring out the command, certainly, although that's gotten better in the last couple of starts. I think Braxton Ashcraft can be a good pitcher and not be better than Bubba Chandler. And that's where I'm at.

Speaker 1:
[50:27] Yeah, I think they're both like top 50 starting pitchers. I think Ashcraft has done enough to work his way into that top 50 ranking. Last one here is Casey Mize, who pitched well against the Brewers. Six innings, one run, seven strikeouts. Only nine whiffs on 88 pitches. He has allowed one earned runner fewer in four of five starts. He's got a 251 ERA, 115 whips so far. Underlying numbers look pretty good. By or sell, Casey Mize is just a must start starting pitcher.

Speaker 3:
[50:55] I don't, yeah, maybe, no, I don't know.

Speaker 1:
[51:00] I would sell it. I think he could be using the right spots, but.

Speaker 3:
[51:03] I lean more sell, but I think if you just left Casey Mize in your lineup the rest of the way, you would end up with a pretty useful line. You would probably end up with something like what he did last year, where it was hopefully better than the 127 whip, but 387 ERA, a little less than a strikeout per inning. I don't buy the big jump that we've seen so far. I don't see much in the underlying data to suggest that he's a significantly improved strikeout pitcher, but I think he's decent enough. I think maybe a little better ERA than Jack Leiter, probably fewer strikeouts, but similar overall. I think they're end of rotation guys, but that has a place, especially as attrition takes its toll as it already is. You know, if my only option was Casey Mize or Peyton Tolley, like I had no other choice, I had to pick one of those two guys, I might take Tolley just because I think you got to chase your upside, especially early in the season. But the likelier outcome is Casey Mize is the more valuable player the rest of the way. He's got the guaranteed role and the higher floor. But I don't think there's a big ceiling here with Casey Mize. Just like with Leiter, I think Leiter will be a little more vexing. I think the highs will be higher. But the end result will probably be fairly similar for those two guys.

Speaker 1:
[52:35] All right. Let's talk waiver wire hitters from Wednesday's action. Carter Jensen continued his nice start two for three with a walk and his sixth home run. He's hitting 275 early on, 919 OPS, 69% rostered. So this is just a name in one catcher leagues. But Chris, if you drafted Yiner Diaz or Adley Rutchman and Carter Jensen is available in a one catcher league, would you make that swap and go with the hot hand? And Carter Jensen is not just a hot hand. Like he has legitimate OPS side, so.

Speaker 3:
[53:09] I think in a one catcher head to head points leagues, taking Carter Jensen over Yiner Diaz is fine. Adley Rutchman, the OPS is over 900, isn't it?

Speaker 1:
[53:19] I know he hit his first home run. He's barely played because he had that IELTS thing.

Speaker 3:
[53:23] Yeah, it's a very small sample size. But yeah, he hit his first home run yesterday, right? He was out of the lineup today. Yeah. I think I'd probably still lean Adley Rutchman, especially a lot of those one catcher leagues are points leagues that should be Adley Rutchman's better format. But Carter Jensen just needed a wake up call, huh, folks? He's been awesome since that game when he was benched for sleeping in.

Speaker 1:
[53:50] Spencer Torgelsen is on the board with his first home run. He is also hitting 189 with a 603 OPS. He is walking a ton early on. His swing rate is down a lot. So I just wonder if he's being too passive early on in the season. He's down to 66% rostered. No one's Chanuel. Two for four with his third home run. Underlying numbers are not great. There was a little bit of hope that he could kind of get into lifting the ball a little bit more. It hasn't happened so far. Do you have any shallow first base interest in like Torgelsen or Chanuel?

Speaker 3:
[54:24] I think Chanuel is probably over rostered at 48%. Yeah, he's better in points leagues, but he's not good enough to be a top 12 option in points leagues. So that's always a tough fit. Torg, I don't know. He feels a little like the hitter version of Jack Leiter to me. I can see the appeal. I certainly think the good times will be really good. I don't know if the end result is always going to be what you hope for with him. But the power is big and he's an everyday player. So 66% feels a little low for Spencer Torkelson.

Speaker 1:
[55:04] But there's so many good first baseman right now. That's the problem.

Speaker 3:
[55:08] Yeah. And he's kind of a fringy, he's a corner infielder anyway. I think if you're starting him as your first baseman, even when things are going well, I don't think you feel great about that. Just because he's such a liability in batting average. And the RBI numbers were really low last year, right? Or was it the runs? He was...

Speaker 1:
[55:29] I feel like, yeah, he hit 30 homeruns, but the counting stats didn't really back up.

Speaker 3:
[55:33] The counting stats were pretty bad otherwise. It was like kind of, yeah, 78 RBI, 82 runs. That's fine. But as a full-time player who hit 31 homers, you're leaving something on the bone there. So I just, I think he's pretty fringy. I do rank Christian Walker ahead of him the rest of the way. I, I'm Wilson Contreras. I think that's a, that's a tough one.

Speaker 1:
[55:56] I would say Contreras over him.

Speaker 3:
[55:58] Yeah. So I, I think he's like 20-ish at first base, which is pretty fringy.

Speaker 1:
[56:05] Yeah. I, as a corner, that's fine. I think 66% Rossert is, is probably fine. That, that tells me a lot of like head-to-head leagues, he's been dropped in those formats. And I think that's probably fine for Spencer Torglson. Two deeper names here. Kobe Mayo has homered in back-to-back games. He has started 7 of the past 8 for the Orioles and Ildemaro Vargas of the Dbacks, 2 for 5 with a double-dong. He has started 9 straight. This is someone who in his career has a 254 batting average with a 663 OPS. Yet so far this year, his expected stats are insanely good. I have no idea what to make of that. Chris, do you have any deeper league interests in Kobe Mayo or Ildemaro Vargas?

Speaker 3:
[56:50] You are bearing the lead on Ildemaro Vargas, which is that he is 34 years old.

Speaker 1:
[56:56] Journeyman.

Speaker 3:
[56:58] He is a career 746 OPS guy in the minors. It's almost certainly nothing, even with the underlying numbers. He had another homerun today, the underlying numbers are pretty good.

Speaker 1:
[57:10] Two homeruns.

Speaker 3:
[57:12] All that's true, but it just, this almost certainly is not happening. It would be cool if it did, though.

Speaker 1:
[57:20] That is the ultimate hot hand. So I guess in a deeper league, if you just want to ride this wall, they have injuries, he's getting playing time. He has first and second eligibility. There is a way that he's useful in a deeper format. I see that right now, but the wheels are almost certainly going to fall off.

Speaker 3:
[57:37] And the downside of riding the hot hand at hitter is a lot lower than it is at pitcher, right? I was thinking about Reynaldo Lopez yesterday, where if you rode the high, it's like, oh, I don't think he's that good, but hey, he's hot right now, just keep him in your line up. And it's like, well, you probably didn't start him for the first start. Maybe you started him for the second, and the next three were pretty good. You had like a 240 ERA out of him. Last night's start jumped his ERA for those four starts to 460, and it's like, well, you undid all the good stuff. Hitters can't really do that. You know, you can only be so bad.

Speaker 1:
[58:09] Unless you keep Ildemar Ovarghis in line up for the next two months.

Speaker 3:
[58:12] Yeah, but if you have one bad week out of him, and he goes hitless for a week, okay, that stinks, but you just drop him. So I'm more open to playing the high hand hitter.

Speaker 1:
[58:23] All right, some waiver wire pitchers. Clay Holmes pitched well against the twins. Seven innings, two runs, three strikeouts. Pretty much to spam the sinker in this one. Nick Martinez, and I'm upset that I didn't realize this yesterday because I would have recommended him as a stream. Revenge game against the Reds. Eight innings, one run, six strikeouts. Two earned runs or fewer in all five starts. He has a quality start in three of five, and he is a spark in head to head points leagues. And Chris, baseball is just dumb because Tyler Malley last time out in a revenge game got destroyed at the Reds, and then here he turns in a great start against the Dodgers of all teams. Seven shutout innings with five strikeouts for Tyler Malley. I guess you probably want the matchups for these guys. Malley at the Phillies at Tampa Bay next week. Nick Martinez, one start at Cleveland. And Clay Holmes at the Angels, home against the Nationals. So can I interest you in any of those three as streamer types?

Speaker 3:
[59:24] Martinez yes, because he's a sparp. Look if you want to stream Clay Holmes in a head to head points league, I think that's fine. I have, I think he's a four plus ERA pitcher. I do not buy the success here. He's not even getting the strikeouts he was last year. He's down to 57K per nine. The control hasn't been great. I see very little reason to think Clay Holmes is going to be useful in a road to league. But if you want to stream him in a head to head points, I think in theory Tyler Malley is probably the best of this group, but I don't have a ton of interest in using him away from home. So.

Speaker 1:
[60:02] And both of those starts on the road.

Speaker 3:
[60:03] And both the starts are on the road. So yeah.

Speaker 1:
[60:06] Two deeper league names, Connor Prillip made his major league debut at the Mets. Four innings, two runs, six strikeouts to zero walks. And Jensen Junk, who we mentioned earlier, pitched well but limited to just 56 pitches. Five shutout innings with two strikeouts. Jensen Junk at the Dodgers next week, so that's probably a no. Connor Prillip looks like he could line up for two starts if he sticks around against the Mariners and the Blue Jays.

Speaker 3:
[60:31] I think Prillip is kind of interesting. You know, the arm talent is decent. His slider is very good. He introduced a curveball this year that was getting good results in the Miners. Throws the fastball with some velocity, 95.7. The problem is, as it is with so many young pitchers, it's been staying healthy and being efficient. He's struggled with control. He threw 82 pitches over four innings today. It would have to be a pretty deep league for me to be adding Connor Prillip. And then, you know, Jensen Junk, the weird thing here is if you look at his time through the order metrics throughout his career, he's really good the first time through the order, really bad the second time through the order, and then slightly less bad the third time through the order. And so it's like, well, yeah, I get being a little scared of using him third time through the order. I also think you should be scared of using him the second time through the order if you're gonna be scared of using him the third time. So it's like, I thought that was a little too cute, but I think they're off tomorrow. The bullpen's rested, so I think they're probably, they were probably just comfortable with that. But, you know, Junk was one of these guys who the first start showed, I think, a real improvement in stuff. His velocity was up. The movement profile was way better. Some of the kind of stat nerdier guys on the pitching side were pretty excited about Jansen Junk. I think he's given a lot of that back in the past couple of starts, I think he's just a control specialist and I'm not starting him against the Dodgers.

Speaker 1:
[62:04] All I heard when you were talking about with the first time through the order was, man, Jansen Junk would probably be good as a long reliever, get him out there for like two to three innings and let's kick Chris Paddock out of the rotation. Everything that I think of with the Marlins is like, how do we get Robbie Snelling in this rotation? I'm stashing Snelling in a few spots and I think he's really good. He's also a great start in the minors and like even Brax and Garrett. Garrett's looked really good too.

Speaker 3:
[62:32] The Marlins have three awesome lefties in their triple A rotation because Thomas White's at triple A and he's back from that oblique injury and he's racking up big strikeout numbers. I think we see all three of them at some point this year. It's just, it's gonna take some time. They could probably just get rid of Chris Paddock now. I don't know if they will. He is their third highest paid player at $4 million.

Speaker 1:
[62:55] It still seems a little confounding but.

Speaker 3:
[62:57] If it were me, Braxton Garrett would be in the rotation and Chris Paddock would be out and we'd just be waiting for an opportunity for Robbie Snowing. But they don't ask me.

Speaker 1:
[63:06] By low or heck no, Logan Gilbert, not great against the Athletics. Four innings, three runs, three strikeouts. He did have 14 whiffs on 89 pitches. He has two quality starts and six outings. He just has been inefficient. And this goes back to last year too where I don't know if it's him introducing more pitches or throwing the splitter more and just chasing whiffs. But dating back to the start of last year, he's just been less efficient. And I get why it would annoy some people. I had, you know, some people tweeted me today, like, I'm fed up with Logan Gilbert. He hasn't been terrible, but he just hasn't lived up to his third round pick. So if you could, by low or heck no on Logan Gilbert.

Speaker 3:
[63:50] Absolutely by low on Logan Gilbert. But I do have, like he's got this new cutter.

Speaker 1:
[63:56] Everybody has a new cutter.

Speaker 3:
[63:57] Yeah, everybody has a new cutter and he's always tinkering. He's always changing things. And I don't know, I've made the argument in the past that some guys tinker their way into and out of success. Maybe that's what we're seeing with Logan Gilbert. The cutter so far, the results are pretty bad. It doesn't seem like a great pitch. Didn't exactly seem like Logan Gilbert had a huge need to expand his arsenal. So it's kind of, what was the point of that? But I still think he's a low 3ZRA guy at worst. Moving forward, the strikeout's gonna be big numbers. I remain very optimistic about him.

Speaker 1:
[64:31] And then these next four, I have four hitters here. So you just rank them in the order that you would try to buy low on them right now. So Pete Alonso, who did hit his third home run, but it's a bad start so far. Vinny Pee, Vinny Pee. Baby! Vinny passed Guantino two for three with his third home run. He has three home runs in his past seven games, but the overall numbers are still very bad. Michael Bush hit his first home run, but you mentioned some very troubling underlying numbers there for him. And Pete Crow Armstrong, another one. The sentiment that I'm getting on Twitter is like people are just done. PCA stinks, which after a bad second half and not off to a great start so far, I kind of get it. I kind of get some of the frustration here, but how would you rank these four in the order you would most likely to buy low on them right now? Alonzo, Vinnie P, Michael Bush and PCA.

Speaker 3:
[65:26] Relevant to the conversation we had earlier, I'm just going to rank them in the order that I ranked them in beginning in the season in terms of how likely I think they're going to bounce back. So it would be Alonzo, Cro Armstrong, Pascu Antino, and then I was lowest on Michael Bush. Michael Bush, I think also has some real worrying signs in there. The bat speed is way down. Like I mentioned, the quality contact has evaporated. Cro Armstrong, his bat speed is up and I've seen some discussions online that have my wheels spinning a little bit and it kind of goes in both directions where I saw someone point out that John Carlos Stanton's bat speed is up and it's like, well, how can that even happen? And the explanation this person offered made sense that he's just given up on trying to adjust to pitches and is just swinging as hard as he can at everything and just hoping he runs into it. And I think that's like, bat speed is not just you swing harder and you are a better hitter. You know, like it can affect your ability to adjust to pitches, it can affect your ability to square up pitches, you know, all these things. So PCA is someone with really bad plate discipline. He's really bad pitch recognition. He just doesn't swing at good pitches. And so, you know, maybe that's just exacerbated that issue. I've also seen some suggestions with like O'Neill Cruz, where it's just, maybe when you're that dude, maybe you just swing with intent all the time and just hope that you'll make enough damage to overcome it. I can see both cases for it. And I've seen like smart, like, you know, batting coach type people make both arguments. So I don't know if there's a right or wrong answer on that. I think it's an interesting philosophical discussion. I don't know how you can be super optimistic about P. Carl Armstrong, given the way the second half went last year. But I do think with his pull side power, with the speed, he's going to be a very useful fantasy player. It's just, is he a 30-30 guy? Okay, maybe not. You know, maybe it's more like 20-30.

Speaker 1:
[67:29] Would you believe me if I told you that his chase rate is somehow higher than it was last year?

Speaker 3:
[67:35] Yeah, that's not hard to believe.

Speaker 1:
[67:37] Pete Crow Armstrong has a 46% chase rate. Last year, it was 42%. Just for context, the league average chase rate is 28.5%. Pete Crow Armstrong is at 46%. So it is really bad plate discipline. Did pick up his fifth steal here, but the power is down early on. One thing I would point out with the Cubs is that they've played a lot of cold weather games so far, and I feel like that could affect them. I mean, I guess everybody not named Niko Horner, I guess.

Speaker 3:
[68:08] Yeah, I guess Niko Horner is the only guy really having a great season as a hitter for them, but that feels like that whole lineup. He's like, say Suzuki hasn't done much. Ian Hap, I guess his numbers are better than I thought. He must have gotten hot recently.

Speaker 1:
[68:21] Hap actually has been, yeah, he's been, the power has been good so far.

Speaker 3:
[68:24] I've seen a lot of griping about him. Bregman hasn't been great. So, yeah, there's a lineup wide malaise that's going on. I think Pekar Amshang will be better than he has been so far, but yeah, he's kind of fringy in points leagues.

Speaker 1:
[68:39] Yeah. Hitters coming around, Jacob Marcy over his last 10 games. Only 243, but one home run and his third and three steals during that time. He's up to nine steals overall. So the batting average has been disappointing, but he's given you a ton of speed so far. So that's good. Junior Caminero. Hit his sixth home run over his last eight games. He's hitting 306 with four home runs and OPS over 1000. Nick Kurtz has three home runs in his past five games. Interestingly enough, has three steals already this season. I don't think that's for real, but crazier things have happened. You know, Josh Naylor and Cal Raleigh last year. Speaking of Cal Raleigh, the big dumper. Three for five with a sock and a shoe. He has homered in three straight. I feel like you had a note on Nick Kurtz that you wanted to bring up earlier.

Speaker 3:
[69:34] Yeah, I just noticed this earlier today. Last year, he had a 419 Woba and a 372 Axe Woba. This year, he's got a 370 Woba and a 409 Axe Woba. It's just flopped. Last year, he overperformed. This year, he's underperforming by just about the same margin that he overperformed.

Speaker 1:
[69:52] And that's within the range of outcomes.

Speaker 3:
[69:54] Yeah.

Speaker 1:
[69:55] I still bet on him being better, but yeah.

Speaker 3:
[69:58] I don't have much concern with Nick Kurtz. I look at the 240 batting average, and I think that's probably maybe not exactly where I'd put it, but I don't really think he was... What did he hit? 275? 290 last year.

Speaker 1:
[70:11] Yeah.

Speaker 3:
[70:11] I don't think Nick Kurtz is a 290 hitter.

Speaker 1:
[70:15] This is part of the problem. Yeah.

Speaker 3:
[70:17] Yeah. That was why I didn't like him as a second round pick, but a 245 hitter who hits 40 homers, I think that's still largely who that guy is. Yeah.

Speaker 1:
[70:27] He might even be Munetaka Murakami.

Speaker 3:
[70:29] Exactly.

Speaker 1:
[70:31] Some hitting leftovers. Whenever you're on the podcast, Chris, your guys show up. Yordan Alvarez hit his 11th home run. Full season pace, we would have to get a full season out of Yordan Alvarez. But right now, he's on pace for 68 home runs. So let that sink in.

Speaker 3:
[70:47] I was looking it up at his draft cost in the NFBC before. It went up eventually, but I think before January 1st, it was the 40th pick. It's illegal to print money, but they were letting you. You know?

Speaker 1:
[71:05] Mike Trout continued his great start one for three with a sock and a shoe. His eighth home run, his fourth steal. Drake Baldwin just keeps on doing his thing. He hit his seventh home run. He leads all catchers by far in runs so far. 26 runs scored for Drake Baldwin.

Speaker 3:
[71:23] He's been the number two hitter, I think, every single game this season. He has not taken a day off, and I believe he's hit second every single game. If he stays healthy, the plate appearance numbers are gonna be massive for Drake Baldwin. He's gonna have huge counting stats.

Speaker 1:
[71:37] And you know what? The Braves line up Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson just hit his seventh home run, a three run homer, Austin Riley's come around a little bit, Michael Harris had a big game. Can somebody let Ronald Acuna know that the season has started?

Speaker 3:
[71:50] Yeah, it'd be nice if he got in on it.

Speaker 1:
[71:52] As someone who invested in him in Tout Wars, I need it badly.

Speaker 3:
[71:57] It will be interesting to see Sean Murphy, it sounds like, is going to be back from his rehab assignment next week. It's going to be interesting to see if we start to see the days off for Drake Baldwin, because it hasn't happened yet. It's really hard to catch. He's playing DH occasionally. It's really hard to catch that much and DH every single day and stay on the field. I do think it'll be interesting to see if we start to get some days off when Sean Murphy is able to play.

Speaker 1:
[72:22] Last name here, Seisou Suzuki has homered in two straights, so he's starting to come around as well. Some pitching leftovers, Max Fried had his best start of the season at the Red Sox, eight shutout innings with nine strikeouts. This is the best his curve and change up have looked all season. It's crazy to think he was performing as well as he was. I think his curve ball had a 10 percent whiff rate or something ridiculous like that. So yeah, those two pitches were the best they've looked all season. Here is your weekly reminder to play in a league with two different Otanis or just get all of his production as one player. At the Giants, six shutout innings with seven strikeouts, 18 whiffs on 91 pitches. He has a quality start in all four starts this season. Jose Soriano was a little more human. He still didn't allow a run against the Blue Jays. Five shutout, seven hits, zero walks, four strikeouts. Still had 16 whiffs on 84 pitches. Chris, the big number there, zero walks for Jose Soriano. So I think overall it could have been a better start, but the underlying stuff was still really good. Any thoughts on Soriano, Otani, the pitcher, Max Fried?

Speaker 3:
[73:30] Look, I think Soriano is an obvious sell high candidate. Just because there might be someone out there who thinks he's a top 20 starting pitcher, and I don't think Jose Soriano is a top 20 starting pitcher.

Speaker 1:
[73:43] But combo, buy low, sell high, Jesus Lazardo. Boom.

Speaker 3:
[73:47] Yeah, I think that's reasonable. I do think to a certain extent this is just who Jesus Lazardo is. He's not the 5 ERA or whatever it is, but the constant headache part of it. Shouts to my Joyce Manor fans out there. That's a band. I think that's just life with Jesus Lazardo. I did want to point out with Max Free, just an interesting note I saw, he walked Andrew Montasterio to lead off the second inning. He had walked Wilson Contreras in the first, and after that, he stopped pitching out of the windup. The rest of the game, he pitched exclusively out of the stretch, and he said he just hasn't felt right out of the windup this season. I looked it up. He has eight walks or 10 walks now out of the windup, zero out of the stretch, so that's kind of interesting. He's, I say it every time Max Fried comes up, he's one of those guys I never really look at. The, what was the pitch mix like today for Max Fried? Was the movement different? Because it's just like, he's just gonna be good doing different stuff every time. He's just so good at finding what's working that day that I just, I don't want to expend any mental energy thinking about Max Fried, because it's just like, yeah, he's good. We'll move on. Yeah.

Speaker 1:
[75:10] Well, let's move on to three other pitchers. Tanner Baiby, back to back quality starts this one against the Astros, six innings, two runs, three strikeouts to two walks. That's, yep, mentioned back to back quality starts. He gets the Tampa Bay Rays next week. It's okay, I think he's like a fringe person in your lineup right now. Matthew Boyd was solid in his return against the Phillies, four and two thirds innings, two runs, five strikeouts to zero walks, and Michael Wacha got hit with regression against the Orioles, five and a third, seven hits, six runs, five strikeouts here. He was four for four in quality starts, heading into this start. Anything on Wacha, Matthew Boyd and Tanner Bybee?

Speaker 3:
[75:53] Yeah, I think Tanner Bybee is also a, I don't know, whatever, late 90s, early 2000s, ABC slash NBC, CBS, legal drama. Jag, I just don't think he's a must roster player. It's just he's got a matchup against Tampa Bay next week. Okay, that probably should go okay. Surprising he survived against the Astros, but I don't think there's anything special about Tanner Bybee at this point anymore. I prefer Matthew Boyd, I think he's better. And then, yeah, Michael Wacha's not a 251 ERA pitcher, so there's still some regression coming, but he's useful enough for a mid to high threes ERA, it's fine.

Speaker 1:
[76:30] Call to the bullpen for the Marlins, Pete Fairbanks got the final two outs for his fifth save. For the Astros, Eniel De Los Santos got the final four outs for his third save. Wonder if maybe he's overtaking Brian King a little bit here. For the Angels, Jordan Romano got the ninth with a four run lead. He allowed two hits, but also struck out two to close out the game. I still think he's the Angels' closer for now. We'll see how that situation goes. For the Mariners, Andres Munoz got the ninth with a one run lead. He gave up a game tying home run to Nick Kurtz, but wound up with the win because on the other side for the Athletics, Joel Kunel got the ninth with the game tied. He allowed a run on four hits and took his first loss of the season. For the Braves, we got to see Robert Suarez in the closer role with a two run lead. He allowed a hit, but picked up his second save. For the Tigers, Kenley Jansen got the ninth with a three run lead. He allowed three base runners, but picked up his sixth save. And for the Giants, Ryan Walker got the ninth with a three run lead. He allowed a walk, but picked up his third save. And don't look now, but Ryan Walker has the last two saves for the Giants. So perhaps Tony Vitello, you know, stop overthinking this thing. Let's go with the closer. And hopefully it's just Ryan Walker. To stream or not to stream on Thursday, we have JR Richie in his debut at the Nationals. Kate Cavalli against the Braves. Brandon Sprout at the Tigers. Davis Martin at the D-backs. Christian Scott in his season debut against the Twins.

Speaker 3:
[78:05] I don't really like any of these guys. I think JR Richie in his MLB debut would probably be my favorite. And that's not saying much. I guess Brandon Sprout would be third. And then I just love the combination of knuckleball random number generator at Coors Field, which is its own version of random number generator. In theory, the ball won't move as much in the thin air in Colorado, but it's a knuckleball. Is that? Yeah, that's in Colorado.

Speaker 1:
[78:33] Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Speaker 3:
[78:36] I have no... He could be awesome. He could pitch one inning. I have no idea what to expect from Matt Walter.

Speaker 1:
[78:42] All these pitchers are incredibly risky. Davis Martin has been solid. He's been a high floor, but the D-backs lineup, they could put up some big numbers, man. They just did here on Wednesday. If I had to choose three, I would go Christian Scott, J.R.Ritchie and Brandon Sproat, but I think all three are pretty risky. On Friday, it does not get much better. Lance McCullers against the Yankees, Brian Baio at the Orioles, Max Scherzer against the Guardians, Yusei Kikuchi at the Royals, Eric Fetty against the Nationals. Revenge game, question mark? I think that is. Louis Severino at the Rangers, and Andre Pallante against the Mariners.

Speaker 3:
[79:20] I think that is one of the four teams that Eric Fetty has pitched for now, since he came back from Korea.

Speaker 1:
[79:28] Part of the problem, when I look into scheduled pitchers, is that I look on mlb.com, and they have a bunch of TBDs. So I just gotta go with what's available right now.

Speaker 3:
[79:42] I know Boston is listed as a TBD tomorrow, but I do think that is Peyton Tully, right?

Speaker 1:
[79:48] It was supposed to be Brian Baio, but they moved Baio back to Friday. Yeah, they moved Baio back, and they said Tully was gonna start this weekend, but there is a chance that Tully just starts on Thursday.

Speaker 3:
[79:57] Okay, yeah, then I don't, I'm not sure that-

Speaker 1:
[80:00] I don't think they've announced it yet, though, but-

Speaker 3:
[80:02] But for Friday, okay, Baio's fine. He's probably not much more than fine, but I think he's fine. Scherzer against Cleveland is okay. I could see a good start from Yusuke Kuchie, but I would really not want to trust anyone from the Thursday, Friday streaming pitchers group.

Speaker 1:
[80:21] You can always tell when we go really late once you hear the cat feeder go off.

Speaker 3:
[80:25] That's how you know. Someone told me I should do an April Fool's joke where I set the cat feeder like an hour ahead and see if it freaked you out. And you're like, oh my God, we're running super late.

Speaker 1:
[80:37] Yeah.

Speaker 3:
[80:37] I think I wasn't on that night.

Speaker 1:
[80:39] Let's see, I did pull up ESPN just because they have more probable pitchers for Friday.

Speaker 3:
[80:45] Red Sox have no.

Speaker 1:
[80:46] They do a little bit more guessing there.

Speaker 3:
[80:48] There's nobody listed for the Red Sox on Thursday.

Speaker 1:
[80:51] Dean Kramer against the Red Sox on Friday. Maybe. I mean, the Red Sox aren't hitting and Kramer's been okay.

Speaker 3:
[80:57] Yeah, he's leaning into that splitter like 40% of the time. That's okay.

Speaker 1:
[81:02] Anybody else? Adrian Howser against the Marlins. Can I interest you in that?

Speaker 3:
[81:08] I don't hate it. Cause that's in San Francisco. I think that's actually okay. I think Adrian Howser against the Marlins in San Francisco could be fine.

Speaker 1:
[81:17] All right, we're gonna wrap there for Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to Fantasy Baseball Today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five star rating on Apple or Spotify, and we will be back again tomorrow.

Speaker 6:
[81:39] Paramount Podcasts.

Speaker 1:
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