transcript

Speaker 1:
[00:00] Welcome to The Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Our last show before the 2026 draft kicks off. It's a four-person podcast, which I don't know if we've ever done on this feed before, but that's what we're doing today. Me, Dane Brugler, Dave Helman, Derrik Klassen, going through their biggest questions that they have on the eve of the draft. We recorded this on Wednesday night. It's running Thursday morning. If we've gotten answers to any of these questions in the 12 hours between then, I'm very sorry. But that's what we're doing today. The biggest questions we have as we move toward the start of the 2026 draft. Quick reminder, 730 PM Eastern on the Athletic Football Show YouTube channel is when our night one draft stream will begin. Us four plus Bruce Feldman breaking down every single pick from the first round of the 2026 NFL draft. On the podcast side of it, we will be doing a separate show that will be available to you in your podcast feeds the morning after round one. We will be doing the exact same thing after rounds two and three. So if you're a podcast listener, those separate shows are coming your way in the same way they have over the last couple of years. Night two, Friday, 630 PM Eastern, we will be doing the same thing we did on night one, breaking down every single pick of rounds two and three. It'll be the four of us. Very much looking forward to the next couple of days. One of my favorite stretches of the entire year. Great to spend time with all these guys, great to spend time with you. So very much looking forward to it. For now, it is me, Dane, Dave and Derrik running through our biggest questions before the 2026 draft kicks off. Let's get to it right now. Well, gentlemen, we made it. It is the day of the 2026 NFL Draft. While you guys are listening to this, we are recording this on the eve of the 2026 NFL Draft. Dane, I believe we started doing this for the 2022 Draft. It's the first time I can remember doing this exact show, or right before the Draft was happening, the day before it happened, me and you and Nate sat down and we were like, okay, what are the biggest questions you still have as the Draft is about to kick off? And I've really enjoyed doing it this way. I think it's a fun kind of last note in our pre-Draft coverage. And so that's exactly what we're doing today. We're gonna run through the biggest questions the three of you guys still have as the Draft is about to get going.

Speaker 2:
[02:28] And there's very little prep for this because this is what's going on in our minds right now. It's the thing that's sticking in our craw about, okay, as we do our final mocks, as we kind of try to get a better fix on how this is gonna play out, what are the things that we're struggling with? What are the things we still don't know? Or we're kind of guessing and doing guesswork. And so we've got quite a list that we can go over for before this thing kicks off.

Speaker 1:
[02:52] I typically have a rule with no four people on podcasts. Three is often my limit and it's mostly because of my hosting skills. But this is gonna be a good bit of prep day for tomorrow when we have five people on the actual draft stream.

Speaker 3:
[03:05] Well, it just reflects the nature of the NFL draft itself, like more, more, more, bigger, bigger than last year, more content, more prospects, more people on the show that, I mean, I was joking about it with somebody in the week, like in this build up to the draft, like Dane and I have been talking about this draft class since August. And I think the interest for the draft has been there for a long time, but it's a relatively novel concept to be charting this stuff from before the previous college football season kicks off. But the appetite's there. I love it. And so, yeah, I don't think you can get enough.

Speaker 1:
[03:40] Derrik, do you have any other questions other than who is going to be my favorite team based on where Sonny Stiles goes?

Speaker 4:
[03:46] No, that's really the only thing I've got left thinking about thinking about this draft class. And it's more a matter of, yeah, is it going to be a four? Is it going to be an eight? I don't know. But I'm kind of thinking it's going to be high.

Speaker 1:
[03:56] So we're just going to run through, I don't know, 10, 12 questions that you guys still have before this draft kicks off. And I think this year, this is a particularly good exercise to go through just because there are still so many questions. The Jets essentially have the de facto number one pick in the draft when it comes to the intrigue. We know what's happening at number one. And we still don't really know, as of this recording, it's 5.45 Central Time on Wednesday the night before the draft, what the Jets are going to do at two. We don't know where Jeremiah Love is going to go. We don't know what's going to happen at three with the Cardinals. And so this top 10 has been a weird top 10 since we started this. And I think the fact, Dane, that we have so few answers on the eve of the draft only speaks to how strange the run up to this draft has been compared to a lot of others.

Speaker 2:
[04:40] And that's what happens when you run off of quarterbacks, right? Where it's a lot more wide open. We've talked about it all process about the quote unquote non-premium positions and how that clouds things. Jordan Tyson, we thought that at combine time, we were talking about how the injury questions were going to knock him out of the top half of round one. When going back to August, from August until February, any rankings I did, Jordan Tyson was a top 12 player. And then, OK, combine happens, can't work out, can't be able to work out at the pro day. All right, well, he's going to fall. Well, no, teams still really like him. So all those things go into this top 10. And I think you're right. For me, that's where it starts, is number two. That's really the first question I have on my list, is what do the Jets do at number two? And which direction do they want to go? We assume it's going to be a pass rusher, but you have two different ones at the top, with Arville Reese and David Bailey.

Speaker 1:
[05:34] You've been pretty steadfast in your belief that you think it's going to be Reese. You've had Reese in all of your mocks. You have consistently done that. Why have you been so ardent in believing that Arville Reese is the number two pick to the Jets?

Speaker 2:
[05:44] And it's not, I don't have any inside information here. I think, and I think that's important for everybody to, you know, or to point out is...

Speaker 1:
[05:53] Yeah, it's good transparency. It's useful.

Speaker 2:
[05:54] The Jets aren't telling me what they're going to do. Jets aren't telling anybody what they're going to do. All of the information, the intel from this week, is really coming from what other teams think the Jets are going to do. And there's a pretty mixed feedback from teams about, will it be Bailey? Will it be Reese? And you can make a case for both. With Reese, I think, just with the way that Aaron Glenn wants to be more multiple, with the hybrid ways that they are going to attack you, though looking at the division, to me, Reese is... and Reese is just a better player, in my opinion. Yes, some of it you're banking on upside. You're banking on a 20-year-old who was a one-year starter who played a joker role in that Ohio State defense, and so there's projection involved with what that's going to look like in the NFL, where with Bailey is more pretty laid out, like he's an edge rusher, go get the football, and that's pretty much it. So I think that if you're looking for the easiest transition, okay, Bailey, if you're looking for what could be a home run, I think it's Reese, and that's the one I'm sticking with.

Speaker 1:
[06:59] What would you do it to, between Bailey and Reese?

Speaker 3:
[07:02] I would draft Arvel Reese.

Speaker 1:
[07:03] All three of you guys. All three of you guys are pretty, yeah.

Speaker 4:
[07:06] He's the best player in the draft.

Speaker 3:
[07:08] I've been doing a show with Dane for nine months, and I have to admit, I think that colors my perception. I think it's worth admitting, but we've been on this process together this entire time, and just watching the guy, watching his games, seeing him week after week, the variety of different stuff that he did for Ohio State. And I laid it all out on the show that we did with Bruce. He's 20 years old. I mean, if that's what he looks like one year into this vision for him as a player, I'm just sky high on what that could be down the line.

Speaker 4:
[07:40] He's the only player in this draft who moves in a special way, and the film is really good. There are a handful of other really special athletes in this class, like Monroe Freeling is a ridiculous athlete for tackle, but there are a couple of questions about his film. As you watch Alvarez, it's like sure it's annoying that he's splitting 50-50 between Edge and Linebacker, but the tape at both is very good. It's just a matter of where do you want to put him?

Speaker 1:
[08:03] I really like that a lot because I do think that speaks to this draft class overall, where you have a couple of different buckets, where you have some guys where the traits, they are there. You can see the upside potential, like a Monroe Freeling, a Keldrick Falk, guys like that. If this works out, you could see this guy developing into a very good player. Or you have these guys like the MacKay Lemmons of the world or Spencer Fahner or whatever. That guy is just a good player. You watch him play, that's a really good football player. But we have questions about is he a special mover? Does he have a special physical profile? There aren't that many guys that fall into both of those buckets, but in your mind, Arvel Reiss is one of those guys.

Speaker 4:
[08:41] Totally, and again, I feel like the is he an edge, is he a linebacker thing, keeps getting thrown against him. But Dave has made this point a bunch of times. This was the first time we'd ever seen him play edge, and he kicked ass doing it. And he's 20 years old, and he's a special athlete.

Speaker 3:
[08:55] 327 per PFF snaps at edge, ever. I mean, that's not what he did in high school. That's like this, that Matt Patricia showed up and was like, I want you doing this, and he was like, okay.

Speaker 4:
[09:09] And he was bullying people under size. Like there's totally a world that because he's 20, because he's never played edge before, he could add 10 pounds and be like normal weak side and size and just be a completely dominant. For like he just, it to me would be, it has to be all roe reeds.

Speaker 1:
[09:25] I just, I don't want to be colored too much by the latest thing, like the most recent example of this, but just like Mike Parsons.

Speaker 3:
[09:33] I get scared throwing that name around.

Speaker 1:
[09:34] You don't want to make the comparison, but just the idea of like we just did this. If the whole goal in the top 10 is to find special players, that's the type of swing you can take to potentially find a special player, and there aren't that many of them available in this draft.

Speaker 2:
[09:50] But I do feel good about the floor too, right? It's not like it's just you're shooting for the fences and whatever. But I don't know. People throw around the word tweener with Reese, and I just don't think that's appropriate. I think whatever you want him to be, he can be. It's not like he's stuck between these two positions. That's not... I think people confuse that with, oh, he was half this, half that. He can't do one thing. He has to be moved around. No, to me, that's just not what Reese is. He has the physical ability, the mental ability, to really be whatever you want him to be on a snap to snap basis. To me, that's something you can really weaponize.

Speaker 4:
[10:27] Some guys get moved around because they need that to be maximized. Some guys get moved around because it makes the other 10 players, but Kyle Hamilton gets moved around because the other 10 players are better for him. That's how I feel about how Arvel Reese was used at Ohio State.

Speaker 2:
[10:40] What do we make of the... Anything to the 30 visit...

Speaker 3:
[10:45] I was about to bring that up.

Speaker 2:
[10:46] With Bailey. It's a weird thing. So Bailey, David Bailey, had his 30 visit with the New York Jets canceled, which is a strange thing because if you are really considering him with the second pick, which the Jets don't need to be coy about what they're doing. We know Mendoza is going to be the first pick, so there's no intrigue here. You don't have to hide your intentions about how you feel about him. I just... Why would you do that?

Speaker 3:
[11:15] I've heard, and I've heard evaluators and NFL teams say before like, we need, we learned everything we need to know about this guy. We don't need a third-year visit. And Dane, we talked about it on Building the Beast.

Speaker 2:
[11:25] Sure.

Speaker 3:
[11:26] Teams will leave rock solid guys that they love off the list because there's nothing else to learn. If you're going to make him number two overall, even if you feel rock solid about it, why not take the day to have him in the building and meet the GM, meet the ownership, just get familiar with the layout. Say hey, you're going to be a New York Jets in three weeks. This is work. Welcome. It doesn't make sense to me to cancel that, even if you do feel rock solid about the guy. So I could be wrong on Thursday night, but I definitely, I made a mental note where I was like, I don't think you're canceling that if you think that's who you're taking.

Speaker 2:
[12:02] It's just weird. I don't know. I try not to read too much into it. It's just, I don't know, it's a strange move. And look, teams use 30 visits for different reasons. You know, and I think when you go back and look, not every player that's drafted on Thursday night will be, will be someone that they brought into the building. And that's just not how it works.

Speaker 1:
[12:22] But sometimes it's for subterfuge though, right? The idea of like, you don't want to bring a guy in for a 30 visit if you actually have your eye on him. If you have the number two overall, there's no pay or nothing. You don't have to hide anything. So I do think that's absolutely something we're paying attention to. Dave, what is your biggest question on your mind as we sit here less than 24 hours in the draft kicking off?

Speaker 3:
[12:42] Let's stick with the big time pass rushers. And I think we've kind of let go of the idea that Ruben Bain is going to be the first pass rusher off the board. But I am really intrigued by, like you go through this draft cycle and again, like Dane and I, I think he wrecked shop against Notre Dame and it was barely September. And it was Bain, Bain, Bain. Amazing. He could be the first pick in this draft if no quarterback materializes. And we've been on this ride with Ruben Bain. We all know exactly who he is. He's a phenomenal player, still a historical outlier. And like after enough time talking about it, you just sort of, you're like, yeah, yeah, yeah, the arms, the arms, we know. But that's still true. And you factor in late arriving news about the, the car accident that he was in a couple of years ago. It seems like we've heard across the board that NFL teams have their hands around that. But I still wonder what is Ruben Bain's actual floor? Because we're just sort of saying sometime after two, but definitely before 10, Ruben Bain is going to be gone. Or like at the very least, like 12 at the latest.

Speaker 1:
[13:49] I thought you meant floor as a player. And I know which is, yeah.

Speaker 3:
[13:53] What's his, like where, where's the last place he could be drafted? Like if he falls a little bit, where does it stop? And I'm just, I'm really intrigued by that because I, I like the player a lot. We talked about it a million times. Go watch the Texas A&M game. Go watch the Ohio State game. He's, he's, he's a good player, but he is a historical outlier. And I do think it's worth repeating that word because again, guys like this just don't get drafted anywhere near the top of the draft. And because his tape is so good, we're all just like, yeah, yeah, yeah, short arms, but like number nine, right? Like number nine, what if that's not true? Like what if the league's a lot more worried about that than we are?

Speaker 2:
[14:35] That is interesting. I mean, yeah, he needs to bring a friend to the grocery store to help get him stuff off the top shelf.

Speaker 3:
[14:41] I can't talk shit about that. I mean, I can't reach the top shelf, so I'm not going to talk shit to Ruben about that.

Speaker 2:
[14:48] But yeah, he's not here, right? Look, I think it's fair to bring up, if he does get past, say, the Chiefs at nine, then do we think the Cowboys are interested?

Speaker 3:
[15:01] Everything I've heard is...

Speaker 2:
[15:02] 20, 12, we'll start with 12.

Speaker 3:
[15:04] Everything I've heard is like at 12, probably not. I think the length and size stuff matters, and I think there's just different positions and archetypes of players that they prefer more.

Speaker 1:
[15:15] So then what happens?

Speaker 3:
[15:16] That's my point.

Speaker 2:
[15:16] Right. Well, and I probably shouldn't have skipped Miami at 11, which is, I don't know, do you want to keep them home? Like, you know, like that's something that...

Speaker 3:
[15:24] That's interesting because it's a, I mean, it's a hometown cell too, though. Like fan bases love when the local guy winds up on the pro team.

Speaker 1:
[15:32] Miami is such a wild card because in doing an exercise where you're trying to figure out the needs for Miami, you can't do it because every single position other than maybe quarterback in this draft is probably on the table. If they want to take an offensive lineman, they could easily take an offensive lineman at 11. If they want to take a receiver, they easily could edge, they easily could corner safety, off-ball linebacker, they could do anything at that spot. And so maybe the floor is 11. We just haven't been thinking about Ruben Duarte to Miami that often because we've been pairing him with the teams in the top 10. But if they took him at 11, would that be surprising to anyone based on the state of their roster? Not really.

Speaker 2:
[16:06] Yeah, I don't think so. I mean, to me, just thinking through it, I think the floor might be the Lions, what, at 17?

Speaker 3:
[16:13] Okay, so that's what I wanted to know. And I know it's a hard thing to know the answer to. But again, like, what if it's lower than 11 or 12? Like, what if it's 17, 20? I don't know, like, I can't imagine, I'm not trying to say he would fall out of the first round, but if a guy with historically short arms fell further than most of us expected, I think that's something that you should at least be on guard for, or at least I am.

Speaker 4:
[16:37] I feel like Lions that pick at, what is it, 17? Like, that to me feels like the range in the sense that that's where you start getting to teams that kind of do have a number one already. Like, the Lions obviously have Aiden Hutchinson. And there are a couple other teams that, if he fell a little bit more there, they already have an ace. So, like, you're not drafting him to be that. Whereas if you're the Chiefs, I know they have Chris Jones, but, like, on the edge, you would ideally hope that Bain could be your number one if they take him at nine. Like, the math becomes a little bit different there.

Speaker 2:
[17:05] Eagles would trade up and get him. That's a Howie special.

Speaker 1:
[17:07] There's also, yeah, I think the Chargers are a team that could use him. We talked about Dallas at 20. Carolina, I think one of the only reasons we've talked so much about Carolina picking a tackle or a wide receiver is that there's a lot of tackles and wide receivers potentially in that range, but Carolina isn't set on the edge by any stretch. There are a bunch of teams, even after Detroit, that I think you could probably have a conversation as to why they might be interested in Ruben Bayne. All right, Derrik, your number one question on the eve of the draft as we get closer and closer here is what?

Speaker 4:
[17:35] I think the question that interests me the most in terms of where we're at with the draft is what do the Rams think of their tackles, really? Because they have Aleric Jackson who has had some health issues and also like if you look at his contract, they could cut him after this year for $5 million or his contract only has one more year after that. So like he's not necessarily there long term. Warren McClendon played pretty well for them at right tackle last year as like a late round fill in for Havenstein. But that to me does not feel like a man this guy is like super, super good. We have to keep him around and also like you're going to have to pay him after next year if you want to keep him around. And then the third thing to me, I know we keep talking about the Rams as like they have to pick for win now, which I think for a lot of people is like a McKay-Lemon or maybe it's like another DB or whoever it would be. Making sure that you have tackle depth around Matthew Stafford in your gotta have it, gotta win year, that to me does actually speak to like win now. And so I'm just curious like if they really think that like tackle is like a huge thing that they need to be looking for. Because I think it helps them now and three, four years in advance.

Speaker 1:
[18:38] How often has you've gone through this? Have you thought about tackle for the Rams? Have you just been receiver, receiver, receiver? You've gone through it with them pretty much every time.

Speaker 2:
[18:44] Well, and this kind of goes along with one of my questions, which is when does that offensive tackle run start? Now we might see Fano, Maui Noa go top 10, but then there's that next run, which is with Caden Proctor and Monroe Freeling and Miller, Caleb Lomu, Ihena Chor. So when does that start? And I think the Rams, that's definitely a spot where it could start, or if the Rams trade back four or five spots, maybe that's where it starts. But no, I think Tackle is worth bringing up for all the reasons you said. It's a position that they've been able to wait on. Aleric Jackson was undrafted when McClendon was a fifth round pick. So maybe they feel that way, but maybe they feel that way about receiver too, because where they got Puka, where they got Cooper Cup. But this is a class where they're picking at 13. If they really like Monroe Freeling, it makes sense. You sit him and you bring him along at his own pace, and he's at worst a swing tackle as a rookie. That's not a bad place to be.

Speaker 3:
[19:49] The Rams are the anti-dolphins. They have so few needs that you're like, that could be fun.

Speaker 2:
[19:54] Sure.

Speaker 3:
[19:54] Sure.

Speaker 1:
[19:55] It's also funny because with other teams, you have a history of what they've done in the first round, and it may give you clues about where they allocate first round picks and how they think about it positionally. The Rams have made one first round pick in the last, like, 10 years, so we have no idea how they want to spend their first round draft picks.

Speaker 2:
[20:12] They keep you on your toes about, oh, they value this. Oh, no, really, they value this. And like, oh, they just trade it for Trenton McDuffie. They keep you on your toes with what philosophy is most important to them at that juncture of where the roster is.

Speaker 3:
[20:25] As long as we're talking about offensive tackles, because I had something similar, do you think, Dane, that the tackles, if there is movement, if there are trades in the first round, and obviously, like, if there's a trade at the top, we know most of those guys. But like, if there's movement around the middle and back into the first round, I feel like the offensive tackles are what's going to spur that. And the fact that there's scarcity after the top six or seven guys, I won't be surprised if that spurs somebody to want to, I mean, bringing up Detroit again. Like, if Detroit doesn't feel like they can wait till 17 for that guy, or if Houston wants to get involved from the back of the first round, I just feel like I wouldn't be surprised if one or two teams want to move because once the tackles are gone, they're kind of gone.

Speaker 1:
[21:14] Or it's like the Bucs at 15, right? Because if you want to get ahead of Detroit, right? And you're worried about Carolina at 19, like there are all those teams, Pittsburgh at 21, Eagles at 23, Browns at 24, where all of them feel like offensive tackle teams. And if Detroit and Carolina also might be offensive tackle team, do you want to get up there where the Ravens and the Bucks are potentially picking to make sure that you get in on that run?

Speaker 2:
[21:38] And not just the tackle run, but these guys, these teams, they want so much specific. It's not, I don't think it's as simple as, okay, well, this guy's off the board, so we'll go to the next one. You like Caden Proctor for a certain reason, as opposed to maybe why you do or don't like Blake Miller and vice versa. So yeah, absolutely. I could see them, these teams moving around a little bit to jump ahead of other teams and just make sure they get their guy. And that's kind of, I'll just mention my next question along those lines, who's going to make the biggest jump? I think we're going to see trades, but I think we're going to see a lot of three spot trades, four spot trades, but who's going to make the biggest jump to go up and get somebody? It could be the Texans from way back, you know, where they're picking at 28. The Eagles have traded up in the first round for the last five years, so obviously, this is something that they are accustomed to doing, but often those times, last year, it was one spot for when they trade with the Bears.

Speaker 1:
[22:43] For a Jalen Carter, yep.

Speaker 2:
[22:43] One spot.

Speaker 3:
[22:44] The Micah Parsons trade was two. I don't think of them as doing that, and it's probably because they're always very minor trades, like they're not leaping halfway across the round.

Speaker 1:
[22:54] They're absolutely one of those teams that looks at, picks outside of the top 100 as ways to move around the draft. They 100% see the draft that way and have always operated that way.

Speaker 4:
[23:04] Dane, the Texans are an interesting one to me, because they're a team that has a lot of ammo, like more than anyone but the Dolphins, the Texans got ammo.

Speaker 1:
[23:12] They very quietly have like an extra two or an extra three in almost every single draft. They've been very good about it.

Speaker 2:
[23:16] They have picked 38 and 59 in round two.

Speaker 4:
[23:19] Four top 70 picks, which-

Speaker 1:
[23:20] Because they were the team that traded with the Giants for dart, and they traded Lerner and Tunsell. And so that's how they found those extra picks in this year's draft specifically.

Speaker 4:
[23:28] And so, but I was looking at it and it's like they do feel like a team that if they wanted to jump to 12, 11, whatever it's going to be, they've got the ammo for it. And then I'm thinking it's like it probably would be for like Ioane if they think that he would be there. So that's obviously not tackles, but he's also like kind of the only guard that teams are going to take that high, who is a true guard.

Speaker 1:
[23:46] You think Texas would do that? I don't.

Speaker 4:
[23:47] I don't think they would, but it's like-

Speaker 1:
[23:49] They're just not that sort of team. I don't think they view the draft that way.

Speaker 4:
[23:53] In which way?

Speaker 1:
[23:54] I think they are about spreading out their bets.

Speaker 4:
[23:56] This is the same team who traded up for Will Anderson to get to NCJ Stroud.

Speaker 1:
[24:01] The Will Anderson thing to me is a different sort of conversation. If you look at how they've done things recently, I would be surprised if they were the team that ultimately did that, especially in this sort of draft. Especially for a guard.

Speaker 4:
[24:13] How high do you think they would be willing to trade up? Is there a 28 right now?

Speaker 2:
[24:16] Yeah.

Speaker 1:
[24:19] I just don't know what sort of player it would be for.

Speaker 4:
[24:20] That's kind of what I'm getting. They have the ammo to do it, but I'm like, in this draft, I don't know who you would do it for.

Speaker 1:
[24:26] They, for the most part, operated in a pretty measured way. Most of the time. I think the one time they didn't do that was the offseason where they traded for Stephane Diggs, and then they immediately started walking that back because I think they knew that they got a little bit over their skis.

Speaker 3:
[24:41] If the last tackle that you loved, or maybe if Ioane was there, if he was there in the mid-20s, if Cleveland already had their offensive linemen, you could get up there using one of those picks, maybe. But if they'd rather hold on to all that capital, I completely understand that.

Speaker 1:
[25:00] Before we move on, let's take our first quick break. What's your next one, Derrik?

Speaker 4:
[25:09] So to go back to the top of the draft a little bit, what is the deal with all the late injury news guys, which is namely like Jermod McCoy and Francis Maui-Noah? How serious is that going to be for a lot of these guys?

Speaker 1:
[25:20] Let's ask this man right here. How serious are you feeling about that, Jermod McCoy?

Speaker 4:
[25:24] With McCoy, it seems like he might fall out of the first round. Now, Maui-Noah seems a little bit more murky. It seems like he's still in the top 16, top 20 talk, whereas McCoy, there were reports that he might fall out of the first round, which is crazy for a guy who, tape wise, is the seventh, eighth best player in the draft, probably.

Speaker 2:
[25:41] So the day that I had a turn in the beast, texting around about some late information, and got from a team that, hey, he's off our board, there's a good chance he might not go in the first. At that point, it was like, shoot, how do I reflect this into the beast? We decided not to because it's just too late at that point. But this was like two weeks ago, over two weeks ago. That's been out there for a little while. I did not include Jermod McCoy in my final mock draft the first round. Now, maybe he gets in there because for some teams, it's more about, at this point, shoot, okay, let's just take them. If you're, I don't know, Kansas City or...

Speaker 4:
[26:21] Seattle, you're playing with House Money a little bit. He fits their style.

Speaker 1:
[26:24] What's changed?

Speaker 2:
[26:26] So it's with the need, but it's not related to the ACL. It's something that some teams think will require another procedure and mistime. And so it just feels like it's just more uncertainty than anything about the knee. And that's just not ideal. Like obviously he's healthy enough to go out and run a 4-3 at his workout at the Pro Day. It's more about just the longevity of the knee and what... Is there another procedure coming? And I don't have... I will be the first to say I don't have enough information to accurately say this will drop him or won't drop him. I just know that there's legit worry from teams about where he's ultimately going to be drafted because of that.

Speaker 4:
[27:11] This reminds me of the Miles Jack thing a little bit. Where it was like...

Speaker 3:
[27:15] Bringing up old memories.

Speaker 4:
[27:16] Right. Where it was like a supremely talented player who on film was like one of the top players in that class. Obviously really young too which helped him out. But there was the degenerative knee thing where it was like how long can he stay healthy and how long can he do this? Even if he looks fine now as a rookie, in year two, whatever it is, like how long can he hold up as an NFL player? And that's a little bit what it sounds like in terms of the McCoy thing.

Speaker 2:
[27:38] Kind of just last year with the Will Johnson.

Speaker 4:
[27:39] Yeah, that's another great one.

Speaker 2:
[27:41] Like that obviously was a complicated situation because the main question with him was speed, but he couldn't run a 40 during the process because of it. So how much of the 40 played a part of him falling to 48 when the Cardinals took him at that point. I don't know, and he missed some time during his rookie year. I think it was unrelated to some of those issues. But yeah, a corner is a position where if you have questions, I mean any position obviously, but especially a corner, just maybe a little bit more concern there.

Speaker 3:
[28:12] McCoy is obviously incredibly high profile because he missed the season. And we've been talking about how healthy he was for this entire process. But if there's one thing I could hammer home about the draft process to anybody that's listening, it's I mean Dane does a better job than anybody. And even he is only scratching the surface of the amount of medical information that only teams have access to. Because like they get the scans and the word back from the doctors on all of these guys. And we're going to be here, maybe it won't be Thursday, maybe it'll be Friday. But we're going to be here this weekend and be like, he's still falling, it must be medical. And we just didn't know about it because teams have just a wealth of information that we'll never see and we'll have to wait and see how guys go in the draft order to learn. And we won't even learn about all of it because some of these guys will get drafted anyway. And it's like, well, yeah, but his collarbones messed up from something that happened to him years ago and we felt comfortable with it enough to draft him. But we did think about it and just so much of that stuff never sees the light of day. And it's wild to think about, really.

Speaker 1:
[29:18] So it feels like you believe that McCoy is going to fall because of this.

Speaker 2:
[29:22] He will fall. It's just a matter of how far. Yeah.

Speaker 1:
[29:24] With Maui Noah, where do we think this ultimately shakes out?

Speaker 2:
[29:29] Just based on the feedback I've gotten, it doesn't sound like it's something that's going to sink him. Maybe if you're a team in the top 10 where the tags are touching and you're debating between him or somebody else, maybe that's a differentiating factor where you go the other way. But I don't think it's something that's going to drop him out of the top 11, I would say. I think he's still going to go that high. I think the Giants are going to be in. I think the Dolphins will be in. Maybe he could fall a little bit further than that, but not much. I don't think it's something that... There weren't alarm bells going off when I talked to teams about it, put it that way.

Speaker 1:
[30:03] I'll say this, I have a herniated disc in my spine right now. It would prevent me from playing that NFL game tomorrow. So that's something to keep in mind. That's the only reason I wouldn't be able to. But I think I'd have a hard time doing it tomorrow.

Speaker 2:
[30:14] It's not nothing.

Speaker 1:
[30:14] No, it's something you do have to deal with.

Speaker 4:
[30:17] I will say the Maui No. 1 is confusing because I think some of the reporting that came out, I forget who this was from, pardon me for that, but the reporting was like, well, Maui Noah, it might pop up that he might need surgery and he might miss his rookie season. But also teams aren't worried about it. It's like, well, that seems... Someone reported that? I believe so. I think it was like Schefter had put that in his story that it was like, I think it was Adam Schefter. And I was like, that just doesn't really seem congruent with each other.

Speaker 1:
[30:43] All right. What's your next one, Dave?

Speaker 2:
[30:46] I mean, we got to mention Ty Simpson. Does Ty Simpson come off the board on Thursday night? Tonight? If I had to put odds on it, I would say better than 50-50, he does not, but all it takes is one team. And could that, I mean, I think the most logical fit that we hear the most is a Cardinals trade up. From 34 to the back, the Jackson-Dart trade, basically. If it's not the Cardinals, could we see, with the Rams, if they traded back from 13, is that an option? I don't know. Is there a...

Speaker 1:
[31:25] They're not doing that. I would be shocked, yes. They're not doing that.

Speaker 2:
[31:30] I'm reaching here. I'm trying to come up with scenarios where besides a Cardinals trade up, what other landing spots do we have here?

Speaker 1:
[31:36] So we had a long conversation, all of us just sitting around bullshit and talking about the Cardinals that are popular today and just the strange spot the Cardinals are in. And I think that too often I'm in a place where I look at this completely divorced from the circumstances, where if you're the Cardinals, you are a team that is, tearing it down might be strong, but you are on a pretty methodical timeline when it comes to when you're going to be competitive. You look at the current state of the roster. They have so many different needs. It is in their best interest to play this with patience. But you look at a general manager who survived the purge, but is still there. And I think that there probably should be an increased level of urgency in terms of how we talk and think about that team. The Giants were in a spot last year where they almost had to do this with Jackson Dart because of the urgency that I think a lot of people in that building were feeling. And the Cardinals, maybe just because we don't think about the Cardinals that much, and it's easy just to kind of leave them off in the corner. They should maybe be in the same spot where they're sitting there. If you're money asking for it, like, I need to do something to accelerate this thing a little bit. Because if we're sitting there with Jacoby Percet and Gardner Mintchou through this entire year, and we go four and 13, even if that probably is OK in the overall scope of things, am I going to have a job a year from now if that's actually how this plays out?

Speaker 3:
[32:58] I also think, assuming Ty Simpson doesn't go 13th overall to the Rams, which would shock me, like let's say the Cardinals, I mean John Schneider does not want the 32nd pick. Like he said that on record. So let's just say they do a minor trade up. You get in front of the Jets and make sure you get him. Who gives a shit if he's not the guy? Like if he's there and you go through this whole thing, and in a year or two you decide it's not Ty Simpson, we got to draft somebody else, like I think that's fine. They already did this with Josh Rosen not that long ago. Like it's not preventing me.

Speaker 4:
[33:34] I do think though.

Speaker 3:
[33:34] From doing something else.

Speaker 4:
[33:35] And I was telling this to Dane earlier, if you take him in the first round, you're kind of committing for two years. And I know that literally this team did not do that, but like in almost every other circumstance you are, if you take him like 50 something and he just sucks and plays like four games and we don't think about it, you can just kind of like, we don't think about it and he's gone.

Speaker 1:
[33:53] So here, I did this the other day. I can't remember what show we did it on. It might have been a mailbag that we were discussing this on, but we were talking about what happens when you draft running back in the first round and the timeline that it puts your franchise on. And it's easy to say that where like in two years we can just do this all over again. But let's just say Ty Simpson starts in the back half of the season for the Cardinals this year. It's not an epic disaster. Then you're going into next offseason with a quarterback on a rookie quarterback contract and you're saying, look at all this money we have to spend. You can spend a decent chunk of it. Let's say you get one small bump in year two where now you're like a seven and ten team and you're picking 11th overall and you're still talking yourself into Ty Simpson. You're probably going to go through like a three year period with Ty Simpson. At the end of that three year period, the worst case scenario is you are too good to put yourself back into a spot to draft another quarterback. Now you're walking through no man's land where, well, we've built up the rest of the roster around the quarterback, but he's not good enough for us to win. Now we need that mid-tier veteran guy to come in and thread the needle, and you put yourself in a 7-year timeline that you're f***ed. And that happens all the time. So the Jets just did what they are Rogers.

Speaker 4:
[35:01] And I'm sorry to throw this straight now, you become what the Carolina Panthers are currently doing. That's where you land. If we are removing quarterback in just ranking rosters, the Panthers roster is pretty good right now.

Speaker 1:
[35:14] The Panthers are the exact example of this. Where now at the end of the season, if the Panthers fall short, they're going to be sitting there being like, okay, Bryce isn't good enough. Who can we get that's like a veteran quarterback that we can somehow thread the needle into this?

Speaker 3:
[35:27] Do you really feel like that's analogous though, considering what the Panthers sunk into obtaining Bryce Young?

Speaker 1:
[35:33] Of course not. No, no, no, no, no. It's different. But I still feel like that's the timeline that you're on, where the team is getting incrementally better. You can talk yourself into the progress that you're seeing. All right, if we go out and get a Jalen Phillips in free agency, maybe this will be what finally takes us over the top. And then you fall just short enough. And now you're in the spot where you were at nine and eight team. You have the 19th pick in the draft in 2027. It's like, the quarterback is not good enough. What are we going to do?

Speaker 4:
[35:58] And I think like Rosen was historically stinking.

Speaker 1:
[36:01] That's the best way for it to happen. Where you're so bad that you have the first pick in the next draft.

Speaker 4:
[36:05] What if Ty Simpson plays like rookie Kenny Pickett? Where it's not good, but you're like, maybe. That's where it becomes a problem.

Speaker 1:
[36:13] It becomes a dicey thing.

Speaker 3:
[36:16] Would you feel differently if they just picked him at 34? Let's say the Jets just really don't like him and they were able to pick him at 34.

Speaker 4:
[36:22] For a couple of reasons.

Speaker 3:
[36:23] Two picks makes that big of a difference?

Speaker 4:
[36:24] It does in everybody's mind. It does inside the building.

Speaker 1:
[36:27] The number next to the players name.

Speaker 2:
[36:28] It shouldn't, but it does.

Speaker 4:
[36:29] It should be, but it does. In the building and I think fans, like there's something about saying first round pick versus second round pick that I do think tweaks things in people's minds. And I actually will say, I think part of the tragedy of no longer having the second round quarterback is I think that there is a little bit of a value of being a second round quarterback where it's like, I do not have to walk in and everybody's looking at me and there's all this pressure.

Speaker 1:
[36:52] It was Chuck last year.

Speaker 4:
[36:53] We were like, yeah, if it works, it works. Derrik Carr was this, like Jimmy Garopp obviously behind Tom Brady, but like he ended up being okay. Andy Dalton was a second round pick. Like sometimes there's a little bit of like, yeah, Colin Kaepernick. There's a little bit of like not having to immediately be the like, you better figure it out guy, I think is kind of nice for both team and player.

Speaker 2:
[37:12] But it's interesting, just bringing it back to this draft specifically, if okay, Ty Simpson makes it through the first round, not picked, the Jets don't take him at 33. If you're the Cardinals, do you have to take him at 34?

Speaker 3:
[37:24] I was about to ask you, probably not.

Speaker 1:
[37:27] It's what we said originally about Ty Simpson, where it's like if you're sitting there in the second round and he falls to you, that's a fine place to be. I wouldn't be leveraging myself in any way to guarantee that I come away from this draft with Ty Simpson. That's exactly how I feel about him. I think if you're the Steelers sitting there in the second round, it's a similar thought process. We're like, if he falls to us in the second round, fine. This is a worthwhile ramp to take based on our current quarterback situation. But we don't have to step outside of ourselves to make sure that we come away from this weekend with Ty Simpson.

Speaker 2:
[38:00] Yes.

Speaker 3:
[38:01] A spot I really like for him. I've said it on some show at some point over the last two months is 44 to the Jets, where it's right in the sweet spot of like, there's a good shot he'll be there and you're not, like that should not stop you from doing anything in the future.

Speaker 1:
[38:17] Right or wrong, I look at the war chest that the Jets have next year, and I just think mentally be like, no.

Speaker 2:
[38:23] Yeah. That's kind of, yeah. No.

Speaker 1:
[38:25] We're putting this off. I'm not, we're not even thinking about this.

Speaker 3:
[38:28] You don't even want to give yourself an excuse to buy in to Ty Simpson? Like you don't even want to have to wonder if he's good?

Speaker 1:
[38:33] I only think that, I think they're in a unique circumstance. I think they're in a unique situation. I think because of what they have, going in to next year, I would rather just say, we're punting our quarterback this year, we're going to do it in 2027.

Speaker 2:
[38:44] I'd be worried about what you're talking about earlier, about the mediocrity. If you draft the Ty Simpson and he shows just enough where you can't really move on, but then, okay, it's another year, you're punting on, well, we'll see what next year's quarterback class ends up being, but it's all leading up to 2027 for the Jets. And so I kind of agree with you, even though I think it makes more sense logically to throw more resources at the position.

Speaker 1:
[39:11] But that's not what this is.

Speaker 2:
[39:12] But exactly.

Speaker 1:
[39:13] There's an emotionality to the position and there's like, there are human elements and when you draft a guy, you feel committed to him, like this stuff does not happen in a vacuum and I would just not like kick the hornet's nest or whatever metaphor we want to use here. It's a thorny situation. Even if you draft a quarterback in the second round, that is still high enough where you have attached yourself to the idea of that quarterback in a way that could become problematic. And I would not do that if I were the Jets.

Speaker 3:
[39:38] I think I agree with your overall point, but 44 is like far enough down the draft board where I'm just like divorcing myself from the emotionality.

Speaker 1:
[39:47] Let's play this out though. Let's just say you're bad for the first six weeks. He was drafted 44th overall. He's sitting there on the bench. They're clamoring for him to play. He does eventually play and then he's just good enough for you to say, let's roll with this.

Speaker 3:
[40:02] You lived this situation not very long ago, now be it there was a larger sample size. But what did the Bears do? When given a chance to surround Justin Fields with more talent or draft the stud coming out of the upcoming draft, what do you do?

Speaker 4:
[40:16] You take the better quarterback. That was by year four. Or what would have been.

Speaker 1:
[40:19] Yeah. That was deeper into it.

Speaker 3:
[40:21] It was deeper into it, but there's nothing Ty Simpson could do to stop me from taking a quarterback number one overall if I drafted him 44th.

Speaker 1:
[40:30] What if you're not picking number one overall? What if you're picking sixth overall?

Speaker 3:
[40:34] Still, I'd feel the same way, especially with what the Jets are going to have available.

Speaker 1:
[40:37] Then why take him at all?

Speaker 3:
[40:42] To have somebody to evaluate and because it's a lottery ticket, I guess.

Speaker 4:
[40:45] I'd rather have like, Jeremy Bernard feels like he could be there at 44. I'd rather just take Jeremy Bernard.

Speaker 1:
[40:52] The idea of a potential lottery ticket to a quarterback in Jeremy Bernard.

Speaker 4:
[40:56] Or like a fine wide receiver three.

Speaker 3:
[41:01] I guess I have to concede, if you're hell bent that you're going to do it in 2027 and you're saying there's nothing you could do to change my mind about that, then why use the pick?

Speaker 1:
[41:10] Exactly.

Speaker 2:
[41:11] I think that, I mean, because you, out of the four of us, I think you tie the most. And so I think there is something to be said. If you think there is a realistic path for him to become your long-term starter, like, you have to follow that. But if you are not, if you like him and don't love him, then that's where I think it gets dicey. But if you love him, if you think that, okay, there's a...

Speaker 3:
[41:34] If somebody loves him, he wouldn't last that long anyway. Like, then that's the other thing about quarterbacks too.

Speaker 1:
[41:39] We also just did this with the Saints last year. I think it is a materially different situation because of the draft capital. The Jets are walking into next year's draft with him. With the Saints, there's always a chance that this exact scenario plays out where you have the eighth overall pick in a shitty quarterback draft and you don't have a pathway to that guy. And in that situation, it's worth taking Tyler Schuch 40th overall. The Jets are in a different situation than the Saints were in a year ago.

Speaker 3:
[42:00] Even if I'm... I'll concede the overall point, as we have learned this year, there's no sure thing. We might... I mean, I'm willing to say, like, I think... I think 2027 Arch Manning is going to open some eyes. I'm willing to say that ahead of time. But like, doesn't mean I'll be right. And that doesn't mean we'll feel any better about this quarterback class. It does not mean that there will be four guys to choose from in 2027.

Speaker 2:
[42:28] It's fair to bring up.

Speaker 3:
[42:29] Sure.

Speaker 1:
[42:29] It's totally fair. I'm also in a spot. And it's dangerous to think this way, because we never know whether teams are going to be a little bit better than we expected, a little bit worse than we expected. With the Saints last year, we all expected them to be bad, because the roster was bad on paper. But there was still the unknown. We had never seen Kellen Moore do this. There were so many, like Brandon Staley. That defense played so much better than we expected them to. It's year one of a regime. I think it's easier to be surprised than year one of a regime. I feel pretty good about saying the New York Jets are going to be bad in 2026. I feel pretty good about that in a way that I probably couldn't even feel good about last year with the Saints.

Speaker 4:
[43:07] Or even if they're not like outright disaster, at least like with the Saints, or if it would be the Steelers this year drafting Ty Simpson. I'm pretty sure their coaches will be there next year. When the Saints hired Kelly Moore last year, it's like he'll probably get a year or two.

Speaker 1:
[43:20] Yes, correct.

Speaker 4:
[43:21] Mike McCarthy probably will get a year or two. With Aaron Glenn now already being in year two and year one was as bad as it was, it's like I don't know if there's a year three.

Speaker 1:
[43:28] There are a lot of reasons why I think it's just worth by guessing for back in this year's draft if you're the Saints.

Speaker 3:
[43:33] I just can't believe that our show of all shows is writing off the Geno Smith team ahead of time, but it's fine.

Speaker 1:
[43:39] I'm writing off the team I saw Aaron Glenn coach last year. All right, before we move on, we're going to take one more quick break. Dave, what's your next one here? Next big question here as we move toward the draft.

Speaker 3:
[43:55] We don't have to spend a lot of time on this one because we touched on it. I am fascinated by what the league is going to tell us. They think about a pure guard prospect in this draft, and I just want to see where Vanga Iwone goes in this draft. I mean, it's been there this whole time. Plenty of people have said it, but one of my favorite possible pairings is him landing in Baltimore. Like, why wouldn't you be excited about that? I don't have to sell that to anybody. But to NFL teams, like, do you want to draft just a pure guard with little position flex that high? Could he go higher than that? I know plenty of people have mentioned him as a chargers target as well. Like, will he still be there for the LA chargers? I don't. The range there is interesting to me. And I'm of a mind, and especially, guard salaries are so big these days. Like, I am of a mind that if you really love the guy, you should be willing to draft somebody like you want a 10th, 11th, 12th, 13th. Like, I think that's totally fine, but I don't know if the league agrees with me. And so the range there is very interesting.

Speaker 2:
[45:00] I think 10 is where it starts with the Giants. I think that's where we're kind of on watch about where he could come off the board. Some teams believe he's the best offense alignment in the draft. And so I understand why they might prefer a tackle there over the guard. But yeah, I don't think, I mean, we've been talking about positional value all draft season, right? With a safety in the top 10, running back in the top three potentially. So with the guard, if we're talking about him in the top 15, yeah, it's not a stretch.

Speaker 4:
[45:30] And this is also a team that doesn't mind that. Like they're trading a bunch of assets for Roquan Smith. They took Kyle Hamilton at 14. They took Tyler Lindnerbaum higher than most centers go. Like this is just not a team that seems very bothered by that.

Speaker 3:
[45:42] But see, the funny thing is, and the Ravens did wind up drafting him and they get credit for that, but like Lindnerbaum, Dane, we did that draft together. Lindnerbaum was like the cannot miss, this is a freaky center. And we sat there and waited for him to go all the way at 25 before the Ravens were like, yes, we will do this. And so it's different positions, obviously I get that, but like teams don't always feel the same way about this.

Speaker 1:
[46:06] I think, talking about Barmol yesterday on the Running Back value show that we did, we had this conversation about guards and kind of how they fit into like premium positions and why they don't really fall into line with things like tackle and everything else. And I think there are two, in my opinion, driving forces behind this. You can get guards in free agency. And that is that to me, this to me becomes, it's not even about salaries to me anymore. It is about scarcity when it comes to position, like premium positions. You can get guards in free agency consistently. One of those positions, centers is the same thing. And I think part of that is driven by the fact that offensive line franchise tag numbers are inflated because of tackles. And so if you don't have that to wield in order to keep a guard or center on your team, there's inherently going to be more movement in free agency with those positions. And it makes them less valuable in the first round compared to something like a tackle.

Speaker 3:
[46:57] Which seems wild, by the way.

Speaker 1:
[46:59] It's crazy that that very esoteric rule affects the way that the NFL is structured and how we draft players.

Speaker 3:
[47:05] It's stupid. I...

Speaker 1:
[47:07] Lie back to the same way. Like, Jack Campbell might not get his fifth year option picked up because of how we do this. It's insane.

Speaker 3:
[47:14] It seems like something that is overdue to be fixed, honestly. Like, if you can't keep the best center in football because of tackle salaries, that's pretty wild. I mean, it's great for Tyler Linderbaum, though.

Speaker 1:
[47:27] It sure is.

Speaker 4:
[47:27] I get how for a long time that defensive end and outside linebacker was funny because those were more like hybrid roles at a certain point, but a guard is a guard. He's not playing any other spot on the line for the... You know what I mean? We can also just...

Speaker 1:
[47:41] There's a very easy way to do this. That position, outside linebacker and defensive end, is his hand in the ground, is it not or whatever, you can chart how often a guy lines up at guard versus how often he lines up at tackle. Which one did you play more over the course of your rookie contract? That is the tag that you get. It's really not that complicated.

Speaker 4:
[48:00] It's not complicated at all.

Speaker 1:
[48:03] But I think it's important. All right, so why? Because the inflating salaries, and especially as you're trying to mirror that with defensive tackles on the other side of the ball, shouldn't guards be a little bit more valuable, shouldn't we be able to draft them a little bit earlier? But again, the availability of when you can find these players either in other rounds of the draft or in free agency, that should be a driving factor in terms of where we're going to draft these players and why.

Speaker 2:
[48:26] We're going to see a lot of offensive linemen. We've talked about the tackles and I think the guards too. Like we're going to see, I think, multiple guards go in the first round. We're talking about double digit offensive linemen going in the first round this year. And part of that is what we're talking about. Part of it is, I think it's just a big drop off once you get to day two. There's fewer names and fewer guys you believe will be starters in this league.

Speaker 1:
[48:48] I think that's becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. I think we're going to see even fewer offensive tackles that get picked in the second round become starters because the math and history is telling teams they have to take them in the first round. And so now it becomes this self-perpetuating thing.

Speaker 4:
[49:03] It's the quarterback name. That's why Michael Pennex goes in the first round and Bo Nicks and guys like that is because it's like, well, you got to take them there. And it becomes a self-perpetuating thing.

Speaker 1:
[49:12] Look at history. They all get drafted there. Well, they all get drafted there because we decided that they're getting drafted there even if they don't deserve to be. And that is what is happening. Derrik, do you have any other questions on your mind here?

Speaker 4:
[49:22] I did have a couple. We talked about the Lions a little bit, so I don't need to do that one. The other one that is like, I just feel like because we've been so locked in on like Mendoza's going to the Raiders, we have like not talked about what the Raiders might do with any of their other picks. It's just been a lot of like, ah, they'll get Mendoza and then like the rest of the thing. It's just kind of like whatever. And so I am curious like how they want to go about that because obviously they still need a couple of pieces.

Speaker 1:
[49:46] A couple.

Speaker 4:
[49:47] Well, I was going to say on offense. Let me, they need a couple of pieces on offense. One or two lines would be great. A receiver would be great. And then you look at the defense and it's like, they need just about anything. And so it's like, where do they think the depth is in this class? Like, can they pass on D-line in the second round? Like, I'm not sure because I feel like corner is a little bit deeper. So maybe you want to take, if Christian Miller is going to be there at 35 or whatever.

Speaker 2:
[50:10] If Kate McDonald makes it that far, that's got to be their tree.

Speaker 4:
[50:16] And so I'm just kind of curious, like, what they actually want to do with some of these other picks? And like, do they spend a lot of them on defense? Do they think they need a ball winner for Mendoza? Because we've talked about that a little bit. Like, what does Mendoza need for this to work? And I think obviously improved offensive line for any young player is going to be nice. But if you look at Mendoza stylistically, there were other better receivers, or they were other good receivers on Indiana. Obviously, Omar Cooper is going to go really high. But like, when you watch some of Mendoza's best plays, it's him throwing to Sarat and Becker, because they're just ball winners. And you look at the Raiders roster, and it's like, I don't know who is going to be that guy for them. And if you want to take like a Malachi Fields in the third round, or a Jacobi Lane, like, do they think that that's more important than taking more throws at the dart, at corner, or whatever it's going to be?

Speaker 1:
[51:01] Also, are they a trade-up team for an offensive tackle? If you're going to drop a number one overall pick in there at some point this year, like, they have an extra fourth round cop pick in Minnesota, and so they have a little bit of ammo.

Speaker 3:
[51:14] And they're right there at 36, too, so.

Speaker 4:
[51:15] That's a great shout.

Speaker 1:
[51:17] Are they a team that we could see sneak back into the first round in order to snatch one of those last guys? Because I absolutely think that's a position they should be thinking about at the very least.

Speaker 4:
[51:26] Because that range, if some of those tackles are there at the end, like, maybe one or two of those guys, it's like, you probably want to get ahead of Kansas City. You probably want to get ahead of, like, the 49ers are probably looking to right now.

Speaker 1:
[51:35] If Miami goes a different way.

Speaker 4:
[51:36] If Miami goes a different way. The Bears even, like, our potential might take a left tackle. Like, you might want to get up to 23, 24. I mean, the Eagles might want to take one, too. Like, maybe the Chargers is like the range if you want to do that. Like, that's a good shout. If they really want to make sure that Mendoza is locked in and solid, you go up and trade for, like, a Blake Miller.

Speaker 2:
[51:54] In my seven-round mock, I had them going, Caden MacDonald in the second, and then Elijah Surratt in the third.

Speaker 4:
[51:58] So, there we go.

Speaker 3:
[52:00] Get him an IU guy to join in.

Speaker 2:
[52:02] The chemistry, you figured they were there just one year together. It's not like they came in together and were three years. They had one year together, and the chemistry, they had...

Speaker 3:
[52:10] Looked a hell of a lot better than that.

Speaker 2:
[52:11] Unbelievable. So, yeah, I don't... Maybe there's a little bit of a same thing going on with Jack Besh, who just drafted last year with Surratt. I don't know. It just depends on how you... Do you think Surratt's more of a power slot? Do you think he can live on the outside? Whatever. But I think the comfort level with a young quarterback, that's something that you would absolutely have with Surratt.

Speaker 1:
[52:32] Do you have any others?

Speaker 2:
[52:34] So this is kind of along those lines, talking about Caden MacDonald. My last two that I wrote down, these are maybe just for me more than anybody else, but does a defensive tackle go in the first, and then does a linebacker two go in the first round? Like, I'm just very interested in the final 12 picks. Do we get that defensive tackle, whether it's Peter Woods, Caden MacDonald, and then do we get a CJ Allen or Jacob Rodriguez sneak in there, that second linebacker behind Sonny Styles?

Speaker 1:
[53:02] I'd like to run something by you, because this came up on the last On The Clock Show we did, and as I thought more about it, I got more excited about it. Is there a linebacker two in this draft, that if you just drop them on to the Houston Texans defense, it's something that you would be excited about? Because I think we've gone offensive line, offensive line, offensive line, defensive tackle, edge depth as we thought about the Texans. But Henry Toto is a free agent after this year, and I also don't think he's a player that should prevent you from doing something in the first round if you thought that was the last way to supercharge your defense. The idea of like one more like, let's take this to 11, off-ball linebacker on that team, I can get behind it. Is there anybody that fits that for you for Houston?

Speaker 4:
[53:43] So what's funny is I think I like CJ Allen more than Jacob Rodriguez, but CJ Allen to me is a Mike and Aziz Alshayr is their Mike. Jacob Rodriguez to me I think is a guy who because of some of his range, because of some of what he can do with like, there are some routes and coverage where he'll just like turn up the sideline and run with the wheel and you're like, oh, that's interesting. And so I think he more fits like the Henry Totoa role. If they drafted Jacob Rodriguez, he would be the one. I probably want that to be the Caden McDonald spot. Like the idea of just a 330 pound monster in front of the rest of that defensive line is probably my pick, but Rodriguez in that range is probably the guy.

Speaker 1:
[54:18] Is there a player team fit with any of those linebackers that you have thought about in like the final five or six picks of the first round?

Speaker 2:
[54:25] That's a good question. I don't think there's like an obvious like, oh, like drop them in there, because you don't think that way with Buffalo or, I mean, the Chiefs, you don't think that way. Miami, you don't necessarily think that way. But just talking to teams, they think a linebacker is getting in there. Some teams are CJ Allen teams and some are more Jacob Rodriguez teams, but I was surprised how often I heard second linebackers getting in there. That's okay to say, but then when you sit down and kind of map it out, it's like, okay, well, where is this fitting in? And so I'm just interested to see if it actually happens.

Speaker 4:
[55:00] Do you think the Bucs would move back in potentially for CJ Allen? They're a team that they've needed linebacker talent for a while.

Speaker 3:
[55:07] I would like them to find a linebacker.

Speaker 4:
[55:08] David's out of the building now. And I think it would be nice to, I think part of the value that CJ Allen is going to bring is like, that's the guy you get on your team and it's like, he can have the green dot. Like he did this at Georgia's defense like kind of immediately, which is part of what got me to come around on him. Like I watched CJ Allen at first. I was like, he's nice, but I don't know how high I want to take him. And then the more I think about it, I'm like, oh yeah, in 2023, I saw that guy and I was like, that guy seems good. And he was 18 years old on Georgia's defense. And so the fact that he could do that for the Bucs who have been kind of in the wilderness there for a while, they're an interesting team.

Speaker 1:
[55:39] The Bucs going back, like that to me still feels like that.

Speaker 4:
[55:42] Whatever they got to do to get to 25.

Speaker 1:
[55:44] They are the team to me that is one of the strangest teams in the first round.

Speaker 3:
[55:48] It's hard to find an obvious thing that makes sense for where Tampa is picking.

Speaker 2:
[55:53] I put Mezzadora in my final mock draft for them, which if they're stuck at 15, I could see it happening.

Speaker 1:
[55:58] That is their biggest need still. They need an edge rusher. You look at it right now, Al-Qadim Mohammed is slated to start for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as it currently stands.

Speaker 2:
[56:06] You know they want out of there. However they can get out of 15, they will do. It's just who's going to trade up. But yeah, if they can move back five, six, seven spots, more than that, where they're in more of a range where they could get the edge rusher or take a linebacker, that makes a ton of sense for them.

Speaker 1:
[56:25] The two stretches of the draft that I find most interesting, 7-8-9 and what happens 7-8-9? Like what Washington ultimately does and how that affects the rest of the top 10? Like is it Carnell Tate? Is it do they go defense? If they go defense, what does that mean for who's on the board for both the Saints and the Chiefs? Now it's a little less interesting because the Bengals are out of there. So the Bengals have kind of removed themselves from that consideration, but that's sort of the draft I find.

Speaker 3:
[56:49] Probably why the Bengals are out of there.

Speaker 1:
[56:52] Again, we did, the second on the clock show we did, we did the picks like 6-12, and we got to the Bengals at 10, and Montserrat Delaney was like the only defensive player still there. And I'm sitting there looking at it, I was like, holy shit, the Bengals are f***ing. Like there, you look at all those guys, we talked about this whole process. Like there is a chance that Downs, Stiles, all those guys that you'd love to see on the Bengals are just gone. And so when they traded for Dexter Lawrence, I was like, I see it. I completely understand that because I just did this. I just went through all of these different iterations, and there's a chance they're the odd man out. They've just removed any sort of uncertainty from this process.

Speaker 3:
[57:30] The only winning move is not to play. Just take the proven player things.

Speaker 2:
[57:36] It's interesting that you say that with 7-8-9. To me, the pivot point is 5 with the Giants.

Speaker 1:
[57:41] Sure.

Speaker 2:
[57:42] What about you, Helman? What do you think the pivot point is, if you had to pick one? I think the first four players, I think, are going to be Mendoza, Reese, Bailey and Love in some type of order.

Speaker 4:
[57:53] I think it's kind of like who goes up at six.

Speaker 3:
[57:56] Yeah, I think five is a good answer because I made this joke to Connor Orr and the guys at Heed the Call a couple weeks ago where there's like four picks that the Giants could make and they would all seem like slam dunk Harbaugh picks. We got the running back, we got the linebacker, we got the mauling offensive lineman. There are so many ways they could do that. And then also, it's just a beyond obvious open secret that Cleveland wants the hell out of there. So like that stretch right there where the Giants are kind of do their own, they're playing do their own adventure where like they could just take four different guys that would send wildly different signals than obviously the Browns don't seem like they even want to make that pick. So that's kind of where all hell feels like it's going to break loose.

Speaker 1:
[58:44] If that top four plays out the way that you're thinking, where it's in some order Mendoza, Reese, Bailey, Love and you're the Giants at five, what would you do?

Speaker 2:
[58:53] I mean, probably, it's probably downs. And that's just trying to get a sense for what teams think will happen in that scenario. Most of the feedback that I get is downs in terms of which direction they think the Giants will go. But that's to your point with hardball. We have 18 years of data where it's not necessarily him making the picks. And they did so many different things in the first round, talking about the Ravens over that time, that you can't really... And hardball is not an offensive guy. He's not a defensive guy. He's more of that CEO. So it's not like you can really point to where you think you might even be leaning at this point. So five really to me is wide open. I think downs makes a ton of sense. If they want to go offensive line with either Fano or Maui Noah, that makes a ton of sense. Sonny Stiles, obviously they could add a big time linebacker like that, could they go receiver? I don't, you can't rule that out. So the Giants to me at five are, and that 10th pick too makes it really interesting because it just, it's more of a math game now. Like who's going to be there at 10, which should we maybe lean offensive line at five or no? Cause we like all of them. So let's get downs at five and we'll get our offensive linemen at 10.

Speaker 1:
[60:02] That makes more sense, right? And I think that's why when they made the trade, to them that 10th overall pick is more valuable than it is to a team like the Bengals because offensive tackle and receiver are both viable options for the Giants at 10 where it might not be for Cincinnati. And so I think that's honestly where you can make an argument for why Caleb Downs should be the fifth overall pick there rather than waiting because we have more options at 10 based on the positions that might be available that are attractive to us than a lot of other teams would want in that range.

Speaker 2:
[60:30] That's exactly what I did to my final mock. That was why I went that direction. I went with Downs at five and then Maui Noah at 10. It just seems like that's, if they feel good about those players, that's the best combination to make sure you come away with the best value at that point.

Speaker 1:
[60:46] Dave, do you have any others? Any other big questions that you're sitting here wrestling with?

Speaker 3:
[60:49] This is a fitting time to bring this up because I just can't stop thinking ironically about a team that doesn't have a pick right now. But the last two years we talk about it and we map it out and you feel like you've got a good handle for what everybody wants and what everybody needs. And then like the Atlanta Falcons just nuked the first round of the draft two years in a row. Like Pennex and the James Pierce trade. Like for all of the educated guesses we can make, somebody is going to do something insane. For better or for worse. Like it could be insanely good. Like maybe somebody makes some crazy trade that gets everybody excited.

Speaker 2:
[61:24] Do you have a prediction?

Speaker 3:
[61:28] No, because that's what makes it great. I was thinking back over the years, and like I said, it doesn't have to be like Atlanta making a trade, but like remember the Colestrange pick?

Speaker 2:
[61:37] I'll never forget that. I made noises I never made before when that happened.

Speaker 1:
[61:41] It was one of my favorite moments in the history of doing this job, was when Colestrange got picked and we were sitting in that living room in Las Vegas and Dane reacted to it.

Speaker 3:
[61:48] I brought it up a couple shows ago, but whatever year it was that the Raiders went Cleland Farrell and Alex Leatherwood with their picks.

Speaker 1:
[61:56] I also remember where I was when that happened.

Speaker 3:
[61:57] It's like, what on earth is going on?

Speaker 2:
[61:59] What are you doing, man?

Speaker 3:
[62:00] And so making a prediction is against the spirit of what I'm saying, because somebody is going to do something that you could never predict. Their board is so different than what we've been led to believe that it's going to lead to something crazy or they love a player so much. I mean, talk about a good one. Kansas City traded for Pat Mahomes coming off of a string of playoff appearances with a different quarterback who was still on their team. There's no predicting that ahead of time.

Speaker 2:
[62:29] Last time they picked in the top ten.

Speaker 3:
[62:31] Who's going to be this year's What the hell is going on team? It's always something I get excited about.

Speaker 2:
[62:36] Texans maybe?

Speaker 4:
[62:37] They're the team with the ammo.

Speaker 2:
[62:39] And they historically have the smallest draft boards. And so they have very focused on who they want. And they don't care what anyone else thinks or whatever in terms of value at certain points. And so I could see the Texans being that team.

Speaker 1:
[62:57] One of the others that I had is just what happens with Kenyon Sadik, where he goes.

Speaker 2:
[63:00] Yeah.

Speaker 3:
[63:01] That's another wide range guy.

Speaker 1:
[63:02] Who is the Kenyon Sadik team? Who has decided they're going to eat ice cream for dinner?

Speaker 4:
[63:06] It feels a little bit like there's been less talk of him in the top 15 the last two or three weeks. I feel in early March, February, partly because of the combine, obviously, there was a lot of like, yo, Sadik might go as high as nine to the Kansas City Chiefs. And it does feel like that's tempered down a lot.

Speaker 1:
[63:24] Let's say if you're the Bucs, right? And this is a team where it's just like, you gave the Mezador out of sheer default. And you're sitting there and if you're the Bucs and you're like, we think this is the best player.

Speaker 2:
[63:34] Right.

Speaker 1:
[63:34] I don't think there should be anything really preventing them from doing it.

Speaker 2:
[63:38] I'd include Baltimore in there too.

Speaker 1:
[63:39] Yes, agreed.

Speaker 2:
[63:40] 14-15. I think that's where maybe, I guess you can't rule out the Chiefs at nine, but I think realistically 14-15 is probably the earliest. And then I think there's like a five-pick stretch where we could see them go 18-19. I think the Vikings and the Panthers, both those spots potentially make sense. And then where I put Sadik in my final mock was the Philadelphia at 23. Now, I think it comes down to offensive line or Sadik in this scenario. But it's a short-term solution and a long-term solution. All the tight ends on that roster, they're up at the end of 2026 season. If AJ Brown is no longer going to be on this team, they need another pass catcher, another weapon. And so I think about that offense and I just I think it could fit. So I think that's it is it's a good thing to bring up because Sadik will be one of those wild cards in the top 25.

Speaker 1:
[64:32] Do we what are the chances that Miami is or that the Eagles are like the very aggressive Jordan Tyson team? Like we're sitting there with Miami on the board at 11 and we see it's a train.

Speaker 2:
[64:44] It's a long way to go up. 23 to 11.

Speaker 3:
[64:49] Do you think though I've been I've been thinking about this since the Dexter Lawrence trade and like I mean I think Robert we align I think we all align that like you have to divorce yourself from standard operator operating procedure like the number 10 pick in this draft is not the same as the number 10 pick in another draft. And so you sit there and say 23 to 11 is a crazy jump. But could it potentially be cheaper this year if that's how we feel about this draft?

Speaker 1:
[65:18] Well the also the other thing is what are you getting back for AJ Brown? Also true.

Speaker 4:
[65:22] We don't know that.

Speaker 1:
[65:23] Are you getting a 2 and change in next year's draft? And if you're getting a 2 and change in next year's draft, are you okay giving up your 1 in next year's draft? There's a lot of different layers to this. They also have 5 top, they have 4 picks in the top 100. They have 6 picks in the first 4 rounds, Philly does this year. And so they have some ammunition and they will be having even more depending on what they get back in the AJ. Brown trade.

Speaker 2:
[65:50] It's fascinating because I think that Howie Roseman has shown he will be aggressive to get blue chip talent. Earlier today, I was talking with Zach Berman about the Eagles and their different scenarios and different things that they could do. And he was very much of the belief that if the right blue chipper is there, quote unquote blue chipper, if that's how the Eagles view him, they will not hesitate to go get him. It's just we don't know who that is. Could it be Sadik? Could it be a receiver? Is it one of these offensive tackles that maybe they like more than the others? But I don't think it would be a shock if the Eagles are the aggressive team.

Speaker 4:
[66:30] I also think that they're in a weird spot where this... Philly is usually in a team where they can draft like a power and luxury position where it's like, oh, our roster is awesome. We can kind of just do whatever. They kind of need more than they usually need. Like Lane Johnson's kind of on his way out. I think the interior of the offensive line, if they wanted to, could think about that. Obviously Dickerson's health. I think Steen has been an okay player, but would not be surprised if they wanted to improve on him at some point. Obviously AJ Brown is probably going to be out of the building. Dallas Goddard is probably going to be out of the building soon.

Speaker 3:
[67:00] For how much we've liked the Eagles rosters over recent years, like it's not hard to find a few spots that you'd like to upgrade.

Speaker 4:
[67:07] What if Eps is there starting drunk safety? Like there's a lot of holes on this team.

Speaker 1:
[67:11] But I'll say this, if all that is true, but the offensive line, those are contingency plans, right? Those are next year we may need a replacement for Lane Johnson. If they trade AJ Brown, look at the state of that wide receiver group, even with like a Hollywood Brown in there now, I still feel like if they trade AJ Brown and they have designs on wanting to be really competitive this year, I think you can make a really serious argument that being really aggressive for a guy like Jordan Tyson because like we need this if we end up trading AJ Brown. This is a skill set we need on the roster in order for us to be viable as an offense this year. I think that becomes like a screaming need in a way where their feet get held in the fire a little bit to do something about it.

Speaker 3:
[67:54] And it doesn't sound like the Eagles to be like, ah, Smitty and Hollywood got it. Like that's not how the Eagles typically do things. They're usually like, no, just keep throwing shit at the problem.

Speaker 4:
[68:05] I think then for me it becomes like, do you think Jordan Tyson is so good that it's worth giving up all that, whatever it might cost, and not potentially being able to fill safety in the second round or whatever it's going to be, rather than just like taking Denzel Boston 23.

Speaker 2:
[68:19] And not only that, but I mean, the whole thing with Jordan Tyson is just health. I mean, that's something that's... So, I mean, I think Jordan Tyson is Stefan Dix. He's been a top 12 player for me throughout the process until we got to the combine and the injury stuff really became highlighted. And it's like, all right, well, I'm not sure what we do with this. But if you're a team that doesn't have as much risk, or there's always going to be risk, but maybe more tolerance for the risk, then yeah. But at the same time, I don't know that he's even there at 11. I think there's a good chance Tyson, his floor is 10 in the Giants. I think there's a good chance he goes top eight somewhere. So it might not even be an option for...

Speaker 3:
[68:57] Tyson took Kenyon Sadiq's place, you know? Like Sadiq was that guy at the combine. And now Tyson seems to be relatively healthy. And it's like, nope, all right, we're swapping these.

Speaker 4:
[69:07] Right, because during the combine time, we were like, oh my god, Tyson's health, like is he going to be able to play football for three years?

Speaker 3:
[69:12] I'm the one that said I was terrified of Jordan Tyson, and I still am, but I saw him jump in that workout video, and I was like, ooh, that does look fun. I don't know.

Speaker 4:
[69:22] But that's funny, because we did that with Jermod McCoy, and now we're like two weeks after that. And it's like, actually, his knee might not work.

Speaker 1:
[69:30] Any other big questions you guys want to throw out there before we get out of here tonight?

Speaker 3:
[69:35] When can we start? When do the Raiders go on the clock?

Speaker 4:
[69:40] I think I'm good. I think we covered a lot of the stuff that we wanted. It was a lot of tackle talk, which is kind of how I think this draft is going to be shaped.

Speaker 1:
[69:46] A lot of tackle talk tomorrow. How are you feeling? This is like Christmas Eve for you.

Speaker 2:
[69:50] Oh, yeah. This is the biggest day of the year. Christmas, I cannot wait. Because look, this is the final podcast that we'll have to do about how potential fits and how this could fit. I'm so glad to be done talking about it. I'm ready to be talking about, all right, how does this fit? I see what they're thinking here. And so I look forward to those talks very much.

Speaker 1:
[70:14] I enjoy the week after the draft and the shows we do the week after the draft more than I enjoy the week before the draft. Just because I'm in the same boat. All the speculation is fun. And if you're a prediction market guy, I'm sure this is a wonderful week for you. I'm not. So I'm really looking forward to actually knowing where the players are going to go and what the teams are going to look like.

Speaker 3:
[70:35] I just I love the draft so much because from mid season onward, it's like, ah, this draft sucks. It's not a good draft. And like, we're going to ramp up the speculation and the excitement anyway. Like people like it's so fun. And it's one of the highlights of the off season. And it doesn't matter at the end of the day. Like it's what the draft represents that gets people excited. And I can't help but get swept up in it too.

Speaker 1:
[71:03] This is, we've all decided, and I think correctly, and after digging into the players and just looking at it, it is a down year. We've all decided that. My team is picking 25th. I will convince myself in 90 seconds that TJ Parker is a multi-time all-pro if he has drafted 25th overall. It will happen immediately. And that is why the draft has the interest that it does. It's a magical power.

Speaker 3:
[71:29] I think some people roll their eyes at it. But I love it. I love it every year. And I can't wait to talk about this one. I can't wait to get ready for the next one.

Speaker 2:
[71:37] It's seeing the presence under the tree. It could be anything. It could be this, could be that. And after you open the presence, sometimes you're ecstatic, sometimes they're socks. And that's okay. But yeah, there's nothing like this.

Speaker 4:
[71:48] It's a down year for everybody else, but not for me.

Speaker 1:
[71:52] That's exactly how it's going to play out. All right. That's all we got tonight, guys. I sincerely appreciate everybody for checking in. Just a reminder, if you're listening to this on Thursday morning, 730 p.m. Eastern on The Athletic Football Show YouTube channel, the four of us plus Bruce Feldman baking down every single pick in the first round as they happen. Again, I've said multiple times over the last week or so, one of my favorite nights of the entire year. Love doing it with these guys. We would love if you would come and spend the time with us. And then we will be back on Friday, 6:30 p.m. Eastern breaking down every pick of rounds two and three. Bruce will be gone, but it will still be the four of us. Have a couple of people on from the Athletic to kind of go over what happened on night one, some of the more interesting things that we saw. So very much looking forward to these streams over the next two days. If you have not checked them out in previous years, now is the time to do it. The Athletic Football Show YouTube channel is the place for now. That's all we got. Sincerely appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode. If you enjoyed what you heard, please like, comment, and leave a rating. We'll see you next time.