transcript

Speaker 1:
[00:00] Am I showing too much skin? Do we think?

Speaker 2:
[00:07] Hello, everyone. This is JVL here on The Next Level with my best friends, Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller of The Bulwark.

Speaker 3:
[00:18] This is Let's Hear It For The Boy from Footloose.

Speaker 2:
[00:23] That's right. We got a lot of ground to cover today. It's going to be very, very... I was sort of hoping you would give me the Ric Flair entrance music, not Let's Hear It For The Boy, but that's okay. This is going to be a temporary belt.

Speaker 3:
[00:34] Yeah, that's right.

Speaker 2:
[00:35] Really a temporary belt, a placeholder belt until the final designs have been submitted.

Speaker 3:
[00:40] Hold it like this. Let me see. Hold it like this.

Speaker 1:
[00:47] Yeah. Talk about what's going to be on the other design.

Speaker 2:
[00:51] Well, I mean, clearly it's going to, like the rock, it'll be the People's Championship belt because I was the People's Choice.

Speaker 1:
[00:58] Were you not chosen by the panel of experts?

Speaker 2:
[01:00] No, I was not. I'm learning a lot about these awards and it turns out they might be a little sketchy. So it turns out that there's a gigantic awards ceremony in New York City. And this is done basically to sell tables. I mean, they can't take back my award at this point. I've won, so I can just spill all the secrets. So to sell tables and in order to sell tables, they give awards, achievement awards to a bunch of celebs. And so like Amy Poehler wins Best Podcast. I'm sure Amy Poehler's podcast is wonderful, but they're giving it to us. They want Amy Poehler to show up at the thing.

Speaker 3:
[01:42] Amy Poehler is not going to show up at the Webby's.

Speaker 1:
[01:44] So are you planning on going? Are you going to get a whole full table, bring the whole family? I mean, you can fill up a whole table just with lasts. You know, I'm not going to be there. OK, maybe you should purchase a table for young Bulwark staffers and everybody can get a free trip to New York too, and they can receive the Webby in your honor.

Speaker 2:
[02:05] So what they do is for the people who are... This is like the version of the Oscars where they do the like the audio and sound design, and they now have shunted all those things to a separate night. They don't even do them on the same day. The Oscars for people like me, the People's Choice Award winners. We are told that we can have a speech that will be projected up on the screen during the ceremony. The text of our speech can be no more than five words.

Speaker 1:
[02:37] Have you thought about your five?

Speaker 3:
[02:39] I have. Rebecca, take us home. You can do it in four.

Speaker 2:
[02:42] Well, I think it's gotta be fuck Trump, but some part of me thinks they wouldn't put that up there.

Speaker 3:
[02:47] Just like Jesus wept. Just two words that says it all.

Speaker 2:
[02:51] Maybe JVL is always right.

Speaker 1:
[02:52] Donald Trump, eat my ass.

Speaker 3:
[02:55] JVL, let us congratulate you though. Our people, and we should say, our people show up for things like this. When I tweeted that you had won this, there was just genuine, rampant enthusiasm for the fact that you pulled this over the line with what I suspect was about 80 percent of the vote because our people came and put up Saddam like numbers. So congratulations to you, buddy. I'm glad you got this.

Speaker 2:
[03:16] Thank you. It means a lot. It meant more before last night when I slacked you guys.

Speaker 1:
[03:23] All right. Let's move on to the news.

Speaker 2:
[03:26] Last night, Tucker had his brother Buckley Carlson on his show.

Speaker 1:
[03:32] For the second time this month. I'm wondering if you're going to know that I'm starting to mail in the podcast in 2029 when you wake up and look at your app on Wednesday and it's like, it's my buddy Wade from high school is the guest today. Then it's like my brother Paul is on the show. Buckley's been on twice now in the last six weeks, I think, spreading insane confusions.

Speaker 2:
[03:59] When Buckley's on, that's when you get the real dope.

Speaker 3:
[04:01] Maybe interesting to note that Tucker's kid actually just resigned his position on JVL.

Speaker 2:
[04:08] Supposedly long planned. I want to listen to the audio here and then we can talk about it a little bit.

Speaker 4:
[04:14] You and I and everyone else who supported him, you wrote speeches for him, I campaigned for him. We're implicated in this for sure. It's not enough to say, well, I changed my mind or like, oh, this is bad, I'm out. It's like in very small ways, but in real ways, you and me and millions of people like us are the reason this is happening right now. Yes. So I do think it's like a moment to wrestle with our own consciences.

Speaker 1:
[04:42] I agree.

Speaker 4:
[04:45] We'll be trying.

Speaker 1:
[04:45] I hope so.

Speaker 4:
[04:46] By it for a long time. I will be. And I want to say I'm sorry for misleading people and it was not intentional. That's all I'll say. But anyway, but the question does present itself immediately. Like, what is this? Was this always the plan? You don't want to be a conspiracy nut, but like clearly there were signs of low character. Oh really? Yes. But it didn't, there are tons of people of low character who like outperform their character. It doesn't have to be.

Speaker 2:
[05:12] Sort of the norm actually these days.

Speaker 4:
[05:14] Right. I've outperformed my character a lot. I don't have especially high character, right? But you know, you try to, whatever you try your best. But what was this? Was this always the plan?

Speaker 3:
[05:28] A lot of plan talk.

Speaker 2:
[05:30] Who's plan?

Speaker 1:
[05:32] We get to the Jews there. The Jews are coming in case you didn't pick up on that. In case any listeners don't have a fine tuned ear for the conspiracy theorizing.

Speaker 2:
[05:41] All right. Let me just say two things. You guys can react. Thing the first is that this is so much more than we will ever hear from responsible types in conservatism. And like you will never hear the Wall Street Journal editorial page say something like that. You will never hear Rich Lowry say something like that. And so should thing the second, isn't this all we really want?

Speaker 3:
[06:17] No, no, absolutely not.

Speaker 2:
[06:20] I am simply presenting it for discussion because I came away from this buoyed. And this is all, this is all, this is all we ask for.

Speaker 3:
[06:31] He said he was wrong. He didn't say we were right, which is really what we want to hear.

Speaker 2:
[06:36] And I'm grappling with my complicity in this. And I was wrong about it all. And I take that seriously. That's all I want to hear. That's all I want to hear. Where's Paul Gigo on that? I'd like to hear Paul Gigo say that.

Speaker 3:
[06:48] I want to know if Tim and I are going to go to the same place.

Speaker 1:
[06:50] Okay.

Speaker 2:
[06:50] I'd like to hear Rich say that.

Speaker 1:
[06:52] I would too. I'd like to hear a lot of people say it. Okay. I have people in my life I'd like to, we're not going to do. We're not going to go. So I hear you. Tucker is a charlatan now, and a liar and a con man. Tucker is a con man, and so I just, I won't be sucked into his con. I won't. I sat at brunch, and if I've had this happen to me once, about a million times, had a nickel, I'd be, have enough money to bet that million dollars against Clay Travis on the gas prices going up. But they're like, you know, Tim, I didn't even believe it myself, but I was watching Instagram, and I saw a Tucker Carlson post, and I found myself re-sharing it on Instagram, and I was like, I couldn't believe it. Here I am sharing Tucker, and I'm over there going, you're doing it. You're doing what he wants. He's tricking you. You're getting conned, just like the MAGA people got conned. He's a very talented con man, but he's a con man, and I want, if I would hear that from anybody who I thought was speaking the truth. And I think that this is, you can't know it's in people's hearts, and we all looked at this, and I kind of fell more on the JVL side of this and the Marjorie Taylor Greene thing. I looked at her and saw a person that I thought had a genuine change of heart. Tucker is a con man that has a podcast, and this is what he's trying to do. So if it's helpful in the short term, whatever, I just wrote a column about taking yes for an answer from people who want to change their mind, regular people who have had a change of heart, who have felt betrayed. Tucker is not somebody like that. Tucker is on an angle.

Speaker 3:
[08:37] Yeah, and his angle is that he's going to run for president, right? This whole thing, this whole not in anger, but in sorrow at Trump, is the splintering of the America first types moving in their direction of like, he betrayed us on this, and we're going to need someone else to represent us because Trump betrayed us. And Tucker wants to lead that army, and so does Marjorie Taylor Greene. And that's what's happening right now. And it doesn't matter. Like you can say, they can be useful in helping to dislodge the Trump cult, but they are not useful. And I think the next level order, which is making America a place that we all want to be in. Like they want to take the worst instincts of Trump's America first stuff, the griperism, so much. And just that's what they want. And so I don't think we need to, again, we can say like he's right on the overall merits, probably disagree with him on most of the underlying fundamentals, though.

Speaker 1:
[09:44] And I would also say the one thing I will give you, JVL, is I do think the fact that Tucker is saying this, and Marjory Taylor Greene and all these terrible people, Candace and Megyn Kelly, I do think it shines a very unflattering mirror onto the National Review crowd, the Republican senators, the Mitch McConnells of the world, the Mike Johnsons, like the establishment of the Republican Party. Because even if it's not on this issue, because I think the response you might get from somebody like that or John Thune, like if you gave them truth serum, would be like, well, why would I sound like Tucker on the Iran War? I'm for the Iran War. I wanted to bomb Iran. But it's like there have been a myriad other issues in which Donald Trump has been an affront to their supposed values, whether it be tariffs or stealing the election or trying to end American democracy or whatever. And like none of them were this clear about that. And I think that that should shame them, that like they are of even lower character than Tucker Carlson, who is a fucking lying charlatan. So I'll give you that point, but that's the tiniest point I could grant.

Speaker 3:
[10:50] Well, I certainly grant the desire to hear that from them, but they are the MAGA establishment, right? This is the split. The America firsters and the MAGA establishment have reached a crossroads, and we have been watching it for a while among all the podcasters, but we're seeing it now with the America first types who are like, we wanted something different, we were promised something different. This war in Iran is their breaking point on top of other things. Epstein, the fact that Trump's not focusing on the economy, etc. This is their last straw, and so they're going to take their ball and they're going to go do America first things and that's going to leave the MAGA establishment, which I think still has a lot of juice, but that's where your Mike Johnson's live, that's where your Rubio lives. Vance has always tried to straddle these two and the war has made it impossible for him to do that.

Speaker 1:
[11:36] Which is why Tucker's kid leaving is so meaningful, because it's like Vance's ability to straddle it, like Tucker was a huge element of that. I keep going back to when Vance was doing this successfully, the one time I complimented his political skills and everybody's making fun of him was back during that TPUSA feud after Kirk died and it's like Ben Shapiro goes up on stages like Vance has been great and Tucker goes up on stages and Vance has been great. And so he managed to straddle it for that long, but now that's clearly over.

Speaker 2:
[12:07] I mean, okay, so I hear what you're both saying and I understand that the credibility of the messenger matters. But at the same time, like I just, I don't know what more we can ask for, right? Like we have, you know, there are people out there who talk for a living and when they stop lying and they start saying the truth and they don't just say the truth in a passive voice, well, how did you guys fall for that? But they take ownership of their role in it. I just, that's good. I think it's good. And in the split between the America Firsters and the MAGA establishment, I'm sorry, but I think it is better. I think the America Firsters are better for America because you can have, listen though, you can have an actual argument with them because they are saying the things they believe. Right? And so that is a, like the way to combat speech is with more speech. Like you can do the, okay, well, we'll argue about this and we will try to persuade Americans because you guys actually believe that shit and you're gonna go ahead and make your case and we're gonna go ahead and make our case, which is different from what we have seen from so many people who never mean anything they say and they're always hiding the football. And that's very, very hard. It's very hard to have that fight.

Speaker 1:
[13:42] So this goes to the like no true Scotsman side of this argument. Like is there, is there actually an earnest America first-er? Like I'm open to the idea that it's MTG because she's kind of dumb. But like Tucker is not, okay? Tucker is not, right? He like, we saw his emails in the Dominion lawsuit. Like we saw his texts and emails. Five years ago, he said that Donald Trump was a demonic force. A demonic force is what he said. And then he became his biggest advocate for becoming president of the United States again. And now I'm supposed to take it seriously when he's like, well, there were signs of low character. And you know, how could we have seen this coming? That's like, what do you mean? How could you have seen this coming? You fucking said it. You saw it. You knew it. You're not an idiot. And you decided to place a bet on him because it helped the career and now you're making a different bet. And tomorrow, if he needs to make another different bet, he'll do that. And by the way, the bet he's making now is a pretty pernicious one because it's based a lot on not... He will pay lip service like he did in that clip, which is noteworthy to his own mistakes. But where he was going with that is he's piving it to, creating the creation of some new nonsense conspiracy theory about how, oh, well, it wasn't really Trump. He was just manipulated by the industrialists and the Likud party.

Speaker 2:
[15:07] Donors, donors and neocons is what his line was. OK, well, we're going to talk more about Tucker later because Tim wants to beat me up over my contention that Donald J. Trump Jr. I think we should go right to this.

Speaker 3:
[15:22] This is a good topic.

Speaker 2:
[15:23] I think we should make people wait. Why should we give away all the good stuff at the top? OK, fine, we'll do it. But before we do, Sarah, give us a word from our sponsor.

Speaker 3:
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Speaker 2:
[17:03] All right. So on Monday, I wrote a triad about the 2020 because, you know, I just felt like I was going to be overtaken by so much Iran news. And we'll get to the Iran news in a couple of minutes here. I wanted to write about the looming problem of this succession crisis in MAGA going to 2028. And my thesis was that I think there is still a chance that Trump attempts to run for a third term. I know you guys don't like that and think it's wrong. But I think it's greater than zero chance.

Speaker 1:
[17:37] I agree with that. Greater than zero.

Speaker 3:
[17:40] Yeah. Okay.

Speaker 2:
[17:42] Which is notable because it's never been greater than zero. In the post-FDR, right? In the post-FDR, post-Constitutional amendment, it hasn't been greater than zero. But then I made the argument that if Don Jr. runs, then I don't think he can be beaten.

Speaker 3:
[18:05] In a primary.

Speaker 2:
[18:06] I explained why. In a primary. In a primary. So I explained why. Then I explained why from his and his family's perspective, they might want him to run, and it might make sense from his perspective and from his incentive structure to run. And anyway, I wanted to put that out into the universe, just as a marker, and Tim, you said you wanted to clap back on that.

Speaker 1:
[18:30] Yeah, I don't know about clap back. During the live stream last night, one of the viewers asked me what I thought about it, and I was like, I kind of disagree with them. Let's just do it tomorrow together on TNL.

Speaker 2:
[18:39] I should say this is Sarah's fault because Sarah baited me with this.

Speaker 1:
[18:42] Okay. How did Sarah bait you with this?

Speaker 3:
[18:44] I put it in the Slack as JVL bait, because people have started including him in the polling, and he is polling second or third in just about every GOP poll right now.

Speaker 1:
[18:52] And beating Rubio in head to head, which I thought was a very interesting fact.

Speaker 2:
[18:55] He's 6-1-1 against Rubio. He's finishing second.

Speaker 1:
[18:59] Yeah. And so that's notable. And I guess, and I also agree with the idea that the Trump family might end up assessing in 2028 that it's best to have a family member in charge of the party still, so they can keep grifting. And even if they lose the election, it's like every month you can keep the grift going, the better. And so I understand that rationale. I think my main area of disagreement is that I think that a potential fallacy of people on the anti-Trump side is that we look at Donald Trump and we see somebody that is really fucking stupid. And we see that accurately. We think he is very, he's ridiculous. It's a ridiculous choice for him to be the president. He was a fake businessman. He's not smart. He doesn't read books. And so if you look at Donald Trump in that context, then you look at Donald Trump and Donald Trump Jr. and you say, they're kind of the same. Donald Trump Jr. is also an idiot who doesn't read books and didn't do any business on his own. But I don't think that's how people that like Donald Trump see Donald Trump, like the Republican Party people. I think they see him as a successful president who's smart in ways and surprised the establishment and did sorts of, and they see Jr. as kind of his idiot kid. And so I do think there were some members of the cult that would be with him. But I think that Jr. is one standard deviation stupider than his dad. You know, like we've had an, and shitification has come to the Trump family as well. And I think that that's an important, I think that's an important gap for a certain part of the, you know, I just think that like the smart people we were talking about earlier, the Rich Lowrys, like, you can plausibly get around on Donald Trump. You know, you can tell yourself a story, like, man, look at what he did. All his critics are the idiots. He built Trump Tower and blah, blah, blah. It's like, you can't even come up with a story, really, on Don Jr. He's so dumb.

Speaker 2:
[21:04] All right. Can I, can I, and I'm Sarah, I'll bring you in in a second. I just wanted to respond to that quickly, though. The first is that I would not underestimate Don Jr. because he was smart enough to understand. Remember that originally, circa 2016, 2017, the idea was Ivanka would be, and that's why Ivanka inserted herself into the White House, was gonna learn how the government worked and do policy and try to become popular. And Don Jr. realized, no, I gotta go on Fox to trigger the libs. That's pretty crafty, and he's very good at that. He's like a folk hero to MAGA. He understood MAGA is a lifestyle brand and I need to be the mascot for it. And that is an animal cunning, and he's gotten very good at it. And the second thing is, if he runs, I don't think Vance or Rubio can. They saw what happened to Ron DeSantis, and I don't think either of them would be willing to risk that happening to them. And so what you would wind up with is you'd wind up with Don Jr. running against somebody like maybe Tucker, who is an outsider. And all of those people, like the Rich Liaries of the World and the Wall Street Journal editorial page, they will tell themselves, look, Don Jr. I mean, he's an idiot, he'll do what he's told. Like, well, we're not gonna take a risk with somebody who actually believes all this shit the way Tucker does. And they'll wind up right back where they are.

Speaker 1:
[22:35] I also don't think Don Jr. believes in himself enough. I think Don Jr. is happy to be JD Vance's wingman.

Speaker 3:
[22:41] I do think that your theory works exceptionally well on paper. Like, I think you're making excellent points about, especially about the incentives around keeping the gravy train going. Because you're right, Trump understood and learned a real lesson from, as long as I remain the head of this party, as long as I maintain control, even if I'm not the nominee, even if I lost last time, I just say I didn't lose. And I keep this gravy train rolling. And just the prospect of me or in your theory, Don Jr. coming back to the White House is a reason for all the peyola to keep going, right? For all the people to protect him. If there is the specter hanging out there, Don Jr. potentially being president of the United States. And they're saying to all their buddies, whether it's the Saudis or whoever, saying, yeah, these idiot Americans, they'll make Don Jr. What are you talking about? I'm the king. I can shoot somebody on Fifth Avenue. On paper, makes sense. I do think you have a little bit of a succession problem, which is that I don't think Trump respects Don Jr. or Eric. And so I do think you get a little bit of like, I love you, but you are not serious people from these guys. And I would be shocked if Trump thought. I think he would be embarrassed and also, I mean, the thing is, Trump did, you know, we all know, Fred Trump gave him a big loan or whatever, but he did build his own empire. He also bankrupted a bunch of things, but like, he's the guy. And so he thinks his kids are clowns. And so I just, I don't know. I sort of-

Speaker 1:
[24:15] Logan Royce thought his kids were clowns and then kept power until he couldn't.

Speaker 3:
[24:20] Yep.

Speaker 2:
[24:21] Right? I mean, he thinks fans is a clown too. This is like, if you're Trump, you are going to have to leave one way or the other, unless you decide you're going to try not to leave. Right? Which again is a non-zero chance. And so if, of course, he will think it's all about him. And so what would be the greater monument to himself? Handing out to JD, this weirdo who is married to a brown lady, and does this weird Catholic stuff? Or hand it off to his namesake, and then look at me, we're like the Kennedys. I think it is more gratifying to Trump's ego in the case of Anna. Now, in a perfect world, he wants to die in office. Right? He wants to be president. Never leave on his feet. I think that's what he wants.

Speaker 3:
[25:05] It's an interesting theory.

Speaker 1:
[25:06] You're dismissive. Sarah's face says full dismissive.

Speaker 3:
[25:09] I'm not full dismissive. I thought JVL laid out a really strong case. And I think that there's real merit to the idea that they think this way. I mean, part of it is like, have you seen Don Jr. talk? Like he is covered in cocaine.

Speaker 2:
[25:24] Allegedly.

Speaker 3:
[25:26] Sure. Allegedly covered in cocaine. And his eyes are closed. And like he's not like his dad.

Speaker 1:
[25:32] Stung like a bee. He's been stung by some wasps.

Speaker 3:
[25:35] For all Trump's flaws, and they are myriad and well picked over on this podcast, he's not, he doesn't drink. He doesn't do drugs. Like Don Jr is like a wreck of a person.

Speaker 2:
[25:46] Totally true. Don't deny it. But again, who would be willing to run? Like JD, sitting vice president, if Trump says Don's the guy, Don's running, is JD gonna say no?

Speaker 1:
[25:59] Marco might though.

Speaker 3:
[26:00] Yeah, Marco might. This is what I would grant you, JVL. I will grant you that John Jr, if he decides to run, would present real challenges to the field.

Speaker 1:
[26:10] Yeah. And he would have to have Trump's full, like the Logan Roy thing problem would be the first step to overcome. He can't have, these are not serious people. Daddy would have to be fully on board.

Speaker 2:
[26:22] Has to be fully on. I assume he wouldn't.

Speaker 1:
[26:24] We were 30 minutes into the podcast, and nobody's noted one other complicating factor here, and I kept letting Sarah do it. I kept trying to let Sarah do it. But there was a poll that came out today that showed Donald Trump hitting...

Speaker 3:
[26:36] Oh, the Bush line. I did want to...

Speaker 1:
[26:40] You hit it today.

Speaker 3:
[26:41] There was a moment where I wanted to say that, and then it... But he's hit it...

Speaker 2:
[26:45] Well, was it 32?

Speaker 3:
[26:46] Yeah, 32. He's hit it a couple times now. This was a good poll, but it's happening.

Speaker 1:
[26:52] It's hard to pass the baton if he's below the W line.

Speaker 2:
[26:58] Is it within the party? I mean, because again...

Speaker 1:
[27:01] Well, this is kind of the point, I guess, like how it depends how far below, et cetera. Yeah. But I mean, W... But that's part of the reason why the W line matters, because, you know, and I've said this before on the show, which is, it merits mentioning, W wasn't invited to another convention after, right? And so his numbers went down with Republicans to such a degree that he became toxic even among Republicans. Now, that 32 doesn't quite get you to that level because of the way that things are these days, like Trump's independence and the Democrats' numbers are way lower, and so the Republicans' numbers are higher, a little bit still so. But eventually, you reach a point where it's hard to pass the baton even among Republicans.

Speaker 3:
[27:40] And this is why I did mean to mention this, but I meant to do it during the Tucker segment, because you're looking at why does Tucker now saying big, big regrets, big regrets. And I think it's because Trump is starting to hit all time lows in the polling, and they think he's going to go lower. They think there's a world in which they can pick up a significant part of Trump's base.

Speaker 2:
[27:59] I don't think there is. Maybe I can be wrong. I raised this with somebody the other day. I forget who, maybe it was with Anger. I have a feeling that the percentage of people who will be like, I was super MAGA, and now I'm off of it, will be about as big as the percentage of never Trumpers. They'll be real, there will be people like that. If you cobb them all together, they'll make a meaningful block, but not meaningful enough to do anything electorally.

Speaker 3:
[28:31] No, they'll be real Trumpism. They'll be real MAGA, real America first has never been tried. That's where Tucker comes in.

Speaker 2:
[28:39] Right. I'm saying I don't think that will be a terribly meaningfully sized group. I think it may be overrepresented at the elite level from podcasters in the same way that never Trumpers were overrepresented at the level of magazine writers. Because the truth is, his supporters are just there for the cult anyway. His supporters are always just back filling the rationale. They're in it because they hate wars. Then you're in a war and they're like, yeah, I love it when we blow stuff up. That's great. They're in it for the tax cuts.

Speaker 1:
[29:14] I think this question is a known unknown about the America first. What are the other compelling things you said in the newsletter, which is something I've been noodling over about Tucker as a threat from this America first side, is Tucker just has this unending reel of comments that he's made now. He's talking all the time on these podcasts, something that I would ever deal with, where I want to become mayor of New Orleans or something. You have this long history of stuff where Jr is a blank slate. Everybody can project what they want to. I do think that what Tucker is doing is positioning right now. It's intentional positioning as America first away from MAGA. But is he calibrating it exactly right? Is he over-torquing? Feels like he might be over-torquing somewhat, and that there's a softer America first critique that would represent, I think, a more legitimate threat to Trump.

Speaker 2:
[30:10] Either way, can we agree that JD is screwed or no? Maybe not. JD's entire game is preventing other people from getting in, right? If JD can keep other people from getting in, then he can move them out.

Speaker 3:
[30:22] Wait, Tim, you think he's not screwed?

Speaker 1:
[30:23] I think he's not screwed. You saw JD was meeting with the Adelsons and Singers, and it's like, was he telling Miriam about his opposition to the war? It's interesting. Every time they're leaking to reporters, it's talking about how he's opposed to the war. But when he's meeting with the big donors who are supportive of the war, I wonder if he's saying the same thing. I don't think he's dead because of the, you can't beat somebody with nobody principle. And I just, the JVL's case, for the reasons that it's laid out on Don Jr. are not that compelling. I think that Don Jr. is more likely to want to hitch himself to JD, Tucker for the reasons we laid out, Marco for the fact that he's a former neocon. I just like, at the end of the day, I think that there's still a chance that JD could be kind of everybody's second choice and be kind of like standing there holding the bag. I think he is materially harmed by this war. And I think that it's made his job a bunch harder. I think he has demonstrated himself to be not very deft. And so I wouldn't bet my mortgage on JD or anything, but I wouldn't count him out.

Speaker 3:
[31:24] Yeah, to the extent that I would count him out, it would have a lot more to do with just his personal lack of RIS capabilities. I would not put past him. Once he realizes that Tucker's trying to outflank him on the America First side and that there's an actual break, he will have no choice but try to consolidate on the MAGA establishment. And he will lean into the war and the reasons for doing it, and maybe he leans into it for the big donor reasons, and he makes his whole lane on the MAGA establishment, on the heir apparent.

Speaker 2:
[31:54] That will be fascinating.

Speaker 3:
[31:55] Wouldn't be the first time he flipped and changed his whole personality.

Speaker 1:
[31:58] No. No way. Tell him what to do now.

Speaker 2:
[32:02] True that. All right, Tim, got to get a word from a sponsor.

Speaker 1:
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Speaker 2:
[33:55] I want to talk about Iran and the war. War is still not going great. But before we get to the serious part of this, I'm sorry. We have to find levity in life where we can.

Speaker 1:
[34:08] Don't apologize.

Speaker 2:
[34:08] Over the weekend, the Iranians fired on a ship that was attempting to transit the Strait. Today, The Strait Times reports that that ship thought that they had purchased passage on the Strait through the Iranian government using crypto, but they had fallen prey to a crypto scam.

Speaker 3:
[34:29] It was like a Nigerian prince. Yes.

Speaker 2:
[34:34] So crypto scammers are out there targeting.

Speaker 1:
[34:36] They're out there targeting Malaniacoin. You told me I had to pay in Malaniacoin.

Speaker 2:
[34:40] They're out there targeting shipping people and shipping companies, saying, we are the Iranian government. Send us $2 million in World Liberty Financial Coin, and this company just paid it. It was like, okay, great. Guys, go ahead. Go ahead. You should be good.

Speaker 3:
[34:58] That makes sense, actually, because remember, I remember the calls coming from the shipper. You told us we could do this. You gave us passage. That makes sense.

Speaker 1:
[35:07] I thought you were going to say what was funny about it is that they were fired on literally 17 hours after Trump bled that the Iranians had agreed to never close the Strait again. Never, ever, ever. That was his statement on Friday. It was never going to be closed again.

Speaker 2:
[35:23] Not ever.

Speaker 1:
[35:24] We have the best agreement ever. We have a new regime in charge. They're much smarter than the old regime. And this will never be a problem again, thanks to me. And it wasn't even a full 24 hours before a ship got fired upon.

Speaker 2:
[35:39] So, we are in a point where, so as we're taping, again, things can change by the minute because of the incredible stability at the top of the American governing structure. But currently-

Speaker 1:
[35:51] And the Iranian, by the way. We killed all of their leaders. And so it's unclear exactly who and who we're negotiating with.

Speaker 2:
[35:57] Their leaders are more stable and predictable than ours.

Speaker 1:
[36:02] Not really. They can't even decide if they're going to the next ceasefire meeting because there's one group that wants to do it before the blockade is over and there's another group that wants to wait until the blockade is done.

Speaker 2:
[36:14] But we now have word that JD Vance's trip back to Pakistan is off because the Iranians have said they're not showing up. This is because of the blockade. They now say, no, you guys end the blockade. Then we'll come negotiate. Sarah, as somebody who loves negotiating and loves playing hardball, who do you think has the upper hand here? If I just lay this out to you, who do you say, oh, that side has the leverage?

Speaker 3:
[36:46] I mean, they're chicken and egging right now. So we're saying to the Iranians, you open the strait and then we'll negotiate. And they are saying to us, you open the strait and then we'll negotiate. Or like, you know, like there's just this weird standoff. This war is 52 days. Now, we're in the 52nd day of this war.

Speaker 1:
[37:10] Far less than Korea.

Speaker 2:
[37:11] Yeah.

Speaker 3:
[37:12] Donald Trump keeps-

Speaker 2:
[37:14] End World War I.

Speaker 3:
[37:15] He keeps, also he said he would end Vietnam in like just a week. And I'm like, bro, you didn't even go to Vietnam. You had bone spurts. You didn't even fight, but you were going to end that war. Here's the thing. To your guys' point, there are very few serious people in this process. We don't have good negotiators. The reason that I think the Iranians want JD. Vance to negotiate is because they think he doesn't want the war, so they think he's easy to push over. But they're wrong, because he's just going to do whatever Trump is telling him to do, and Trump... Look, I could go through the whole timeline. I could go through all of the ways in which it's gone from... Because I just want to start with this. The strait was open when this war started.

Speaker 1:
[38:02] Was that right?

Speaker 3:
[38:03] It was open. Yes, it was open.

Speaker 2:
[38:05] It was governed by international law.

Speaker 3:
[38:08] Not now. Now the Iranians and Assad are in a standoff over it. It is the key to whether or not we will continue negotiations. And we're both saying, no, you do it first. No, you do it first. And right now, because they don't... Like, right now, that's why... They were supposed to go. They were getting on a plane. And instead, they got pulled off because the Iranians say, nope, not until you open it. And that's where we are. That's where things currently stand. Markets dropped, oil spikes.

Speaker 2:
[38:36] Well, Trump had threatened again to go and do genocide. So again, it does seem like we're the ones who keep blinking.

Speaker 1:
[38:44] Yeah, I know. I'm gonna answer your question. I'm not ready to choose a side on who has more unstable leadership right now because we have a single unstable person who can't be trusted to do anything and they're navigating the post-transition phase. We don't even actually know if the Ayatollah is alive, but I will answer your question of who in Trump's parlance has the cards. And it's like obviously Iran. I mean, Trump is more interested in a deal with them. Just like looking at, going back to the Sarah likes to do deals. You know, if you're trying to negotiate with somebody and, you know, over a contract and one side was like, I really want this contract, I really want this contract. And the other side is like, I can only do it for 100 grand. And they're like, oh, but I'm worth 200 grand. It's like, okay, fine. And they're like, okay. You know, like JD and Trump went off. Like they went off. They want a face saving exit badly. I think the Iranians would like to not be bombed any more too. But I think that it is palpable how much Trump wants to get out of this. And so, you know, but the problem is that-

Speaker 2:
[39:56] He couldn't even surrender the right way. This is- Paul Corbyn said this over the weekend. He couldn't even surrender, right? Like he had this thing. He had a ceasefire and he fucked up the ceasefire. And because he was antagonizing. It really- and every day it goes on, it gets worse for America.

Speaker 3:
[40:15] That's the problem. the reason I didn't quite answer it the way- I'm not willing to say the Iranians because here's the thing. Trump could just start dropping bombs. Like at the end of the day, we still do have an enormous arsenal and we are held back entirely by the fact that there's not a lot of public support for Trump to just end a civilization. But if we do have that, and that is what Trump thinks, right? In Trump's negotiating pea brain, he's like, we have the bigger bombs. We will make- we will hurt you and you can't hurt us. The problem is, is that Trump knows there's no public appetite for that. And so he is constrained by saber rattling about how big our bombs are and not being able to actually do anything about it. But if he gets backed into a corner, like the card he plays is the bomb card.

Speaker 1:
[41:03] Yeah, but what objective? Like, what is even his- what are you in this objective anymore?

Speaker 3:
[41:08] Well, at this point, I think it's just opening the strait. It would be like eliminating Iran as a country so that they have zero power, they're obliterated and we take control of the strait.

Speaker 1:
[41:17] Which was open before the war, back to your point earlier. So, yeah, sure. I mean, I guess that's true. But I don't know that Trump wants to do that, really. And I think that there are probably some on the hardline Iranian side that wouldn't mind it. And that was the bit- what was JVL, and you were on this, what was the big, like, FT takeout before the war started, was that there were some factions within the Iranian regime or they were like, we're at a moment of weakness right now. And like, the more you bomb us, the more we can put a stranglehold on power. Like, there'll be a lot of suffering of the Iranian people, but they don't live in a liberal democracy. They don't care about the suffering of their people. And so it's like, okay, well, we can make you hurt more. And it's- and the situation, it's just such a cl- it's like an unbelievable cluster. And the thing that- that demonstrates how bad it is, is- is you- there isn't- have you heard anybody give a coherent case for what we're doing? And it is- I try really hard to like go out and find- and find it. And it's-

Speaker 3:
[42:21] No nukes, Tim. No nukes.

Speaker 1:
[42:22] It's not out there, you know? I mean, anytime anybody is in any situation where they're pressed at all to say something beyond like the top line talking point about Iranians being bad, like there's- they've got nothing. And poor Piers Morgan can't find people to fill the slots. I had my most boring Piers Morgan episode ever. You can't even find anybody to go on there and defend the war.

Speaker 2:
[42:44] It's too bad. It's really too bad.

Speaker 3:
[42:46] Let's do Kash. Are we going to do Kash as Candy? I thought that was a Candy.

Speaker 2:
[42:50] We got it as a candy, but we got to do one more message from a sponsor. This show is brought to you by Boll and Branch. Have you noticed your sheets keep slipping off the corners lately? Maybe your pillows just don't feel supportive anymore. Most people actually keep their bedding way longer than they should. It slowly wears down. You don't realize how much it's affecting your sleep until you finally replace it. The truth is, most people think they need a new mattress, but the biggest difference usually comes from replacing what touches you every night. That's why we upgraded our bed years ago with Boll and Branch. They make everything your bed needs. Their signature organic cotton sheets, pillows, blankets, and comforters are all designed to be breathable, incredibly soft, and they get better over time. These sheets literally age like fine wine. Most people start with the signature sheets and a lot of customers buy two sets so they can rotate them. They also add the waffle blankets. Now, your entire bed feels amazing. The waffle blanket is magic, by the way. Sleep is a third of your life and I am sleeping well even though the rest of the world is conspiring against my sleep schedule. Thank you, children. Thank you, war. Thank you, President Trump. So upgrade your sleep with Boll and Branch. Get 15% off your first order plus free shipping at bollandbranch.com/nextlevel with code next level. That's Boll and Branch, B-O-L-L-A-N-D, branch.com/nextlevel, code next level, to unlock 15% off, exclusions apply. So, Kash, Tim, you did just a fantastic solo take over the weekend on the... And by the way, also, if I could just point a privilege, your show last Friday, Chef's Kiss.

Speaker 1:
[44:39] Thank you.

Speaker 2:
[44:39] One of the best ever.

Speaker 1:
[44:40] Thank you.

Speaker 2:
[44:41] That's all. So, Kash Patel in The Atlantic accused of a little bit of light inebriation on the job. And he responded by filing a $250 million lawsuit, defamation suit, against which I assume is kind of like the Trump defamation suit over the drawing that he filed against The Wall Street Journal. And I don't even know how to talk about this. So I just talked it open to the floor. Does nobody care? Because this is another evident like, well, is MAGA lose? You know, is MAGA going to punish him for this or punish him for that? Does nobody who voted for Donald Trump care that the guy who's in charge of the FBI is this fucking drunk hobbit?

Speaker 3:
[45:40] So here's what's in this piece that I thought was so funny. But of course, you're right. No, Donald Trump has populated his entire cabinet with incredibly incompetent people. This is the world we're living in, and as his term goes on, we get to see more evidence of how incompetent they are. Now in this one, though, this opens with, Kash can't get into his computer. He's locked out of his computer, which sends him into a spiraling panic that he has been tweet fired, as we have seen Trump do to many of people. And so he thinks he's been fired, and that's why he's locked out of his computer. So he hits the panic button. And this is why the story gets out to everybody, because he's freaking out, being like, did I fire? Did he lock me out? It turns out it was just a glitch in the system. He was not fired.

Speaker 1:
[46:26] It's just like, imagine the fact that I couldn't get into my Riverside account one day, and rather than getting on to Slack, I get on my phone and I call Tommy Vitor, and I'm like, Sarah's fired me, that bitch, that bitch. I'm out, I'm gonna burn everything down. And then I start calling other colleagues and they're like, we gotta get out of here, they're coming for us. They're looking around, and it's like, no bro, you accidentally did the at sign instead of the and percent on your password.

Speaker 3:
[46:53] That's all that happened.

Speaker 1:
[46:55] You didn't need to full out go in panic mode.

Speaker 3:
[46:58] That's right. And so what we know about Kash Patel is he thinks he's gonna be fired at any minute. Based on people that they're talking to, there's evidence that he should be paranoid, that maybe he's gonna be fired any minute. And you know, maybe he's gonna be fired because he drinks, or maybe he drinks because he's gonna get fired. We don't know what goes on in the little brain of Kash Patel. We do know that all of these serious people at the FBI, even ones who are sort of pro-Trump, are watching this idiot run the agency like an idiot. And they've all started talking, is basically what's happening. And normally they wouldn't, and they would respect their leader. But my guess is that when you've got a leader who's a clown and breaks protocol all the time, uses private jets and taxpayer dollars to fly around, gets drunk everywhere, because there's a lot of this, like he's flying to Vegas, to some place called the Poodle Room.

Speaker 1:
[47:49] The Poodle Room.

Speaker 3:
[47:50] The Poodle Room. Never been to the Poodle Room.

Speaker 1:
[47:52] Me neither. I Googled it. Looks nice. It's not really my cup of tea. It's a little, it's a little shee shee for me. It's at the fountain below.

Speaker 3:
[48:00] Imagine being the FBI director though, and just in Vegas and all over DC, just getting annihilated drunk so that all kinds of people can talk to people on the record.

Speaker 1:
[48:09] It's the SWAT team. I've already talked about this twice, but I can't get past it. It is the SWAT team.

Speaker 2:
[48:15] Allegedly.

Speaker 1:
[48:17] Imagine, allegedly, imagine how hammered you have to be. It's like, I take the podcast every day. You guys know I went out to Jazz Fest, so this is next week. Went out to Jazz Fest Thursday night. Friday, I have to take the pod at 9. I don't show up. 10 o'clock, I don't show up. You call me, no answer. 11, I don't show up. You call me, no answer. 12, 2 o'clock, you're like, fine. We're going to call the local New Orleans PD. And they bang down my door. And I'm just laying there in a dark room. And so everybody be like, we need a, Tim needs a break from the pod. Like, and that's my job, a podcast host. He's running the FBI. He's running the FBI. And they had to send allegedly a SWAT team in to wake him up because he got so hammered. I get some beyond imagination.

Speaker 2:
[49:05] Do you think they'll offer him Secretary of Labor to leave the FBI? This is another thing that was surfaced this week, that Pam Bondi was offered labor. And the day after that came out, the Secretary of Labor, Lori Chavez de Remer, she resigned. That's great. Bill has been on an impeachment kick. And Bill's argument is that just look at things and judge them for what they are. America will have to go through another two years of this after the November elections. Is that sustainable for the American government? How much damage could really be done to the country? He should be impeached and removed from office. And part of me feels like this is like when Bill was saying Joe Biden shouldn't be the nominee. Like, you know, and I was like, come on, man, he's not going to stop. So I don't I don't dismiss it likely. I don't know. I've been wrestling a lot with this. And it's stories like this stuff, as much as anything else, that made me think, yeah, well, you can't I mean, how lucky are we that we haven't had a giant Iranian domestic terrorist attack, right, with this guy running the FBI?

Speaker 3:
[50:24] Yeah, totally. I mean, and that is it. I think there I think there's a couple of things. One, it depends on how many seats the Democrats pick up and understand that because there's just fewer that they can pick up this time around, there's probably a ceiling on how much they can do. But if they win the Senate, they win the House by a ton. And if something terrible happens because of Trump. But the problem is the Republicans at this moment, they are still standing with him in Congress. They won't do anything about it. And so until you know that Republicans are gonna, they will act, it doesn't matter what Democrats do.

Speaker 1:
[51:01] Yeah, I have two thoughts of this. I just related to the elections. I feel like in the conventional wisdom sphere, there's a shift from, man, the Senate is ungettable from the Democrats, to now kind of this weird confidence, like things are so bad, that the Democrats are gonna win the Senate. I'm like, and then I pulled you out in Ohio yesterday, that had John Huston beating Sherbrook Brown by three. Like, there's not really a... In theory, there's a path to winning the Senate without Ohio.

Speaker 2:
[51:32] It's still actually unlikely.

Speaker 1:
[51:33] That it's quite unlikely, yeah. And so, like, winning the Senate stuff. And so it's like, okay, well, this conversation is moved if John Thune is the Senate Majority Leader, you know? So part of it is that, and part of that is everybody who cares about this needs to get very serious about Ohio and Iowa and Texas and Florida and Nebraska and Alaska.

Speaker 3:
[51:52] And Michigan.

Speaker 1:
[51:53] Yeah, and Michigan is a defense. I was talking about the offense stretch states, but yeah, Michigan too. Nothing wrong with dancing. Dancing is great. Dancing brings joy to people's lives. And so that's part of it. And then the other part is like, even if they take it back, what the impeachment, like there's an argument for impeachment. It's just like, he should just be out. We should get everybody on the record. The more compelling one for me is like, can you get information that you could center impeachment on? And like, is there something about the Iran War related to Jared or Beebe in the Situation Room? Or it would only be his family. Like, is there a thing, the UAE deal with the payoff to his family, you could center an impeachment on. And if the war continues and if things are spiraling into a stagflation situation economically, you can kind of make the case to people. It's like, he needs to be impeached and removed because he got us into the stupid war because his family was bribed by such and such, and we have the documents, and now everybody's suffering. And that probably still doesn't work, but then it's at least like, okay, this is about a thing. Like, this is not, this is kind of how I felt about the shutdowns, right? Like, the shutdowns are both about a thing. Like, the first one was about health care extensions and people's health care premiums going up. And then the second one was about ice killing people and wearing masks in the streets. And it's like, we don't, we want to fix those things. So impeachment, it's like also about a thing. I would be compelled by more than kind of just like raging against the dying of the lights of the impeachment, which would appeal to me personally. I just, I don't know the value of it.

Speaker 2:
[53:35] I am very, very skeptical that there is any thing that impeachment could be about, which is more incontrovertible than a guy attempting a coup on video. Like five minutes before, you know what I'm saying? Like he attempted a coup on video three days before they did the impeachment and people, they couldn't do it. And so-

Speaker 1:
[53:54] Counterpoint, that was the only time in history that senators of a member of their own party have voted to convict their president. It's just not enough. But there were seven of the Republicans.

Speaker 2:
[54:03] I don't think that there would be enough. And the potential downside here is, and then we'll get out of here, something Sarah's talked about a lot, when Trump is attacked, the rally ground there. And what do you think of that as a potential downside? Is it something you worry about? I worry about it.

Speaker 3:
[54:20] Yeah, I mean, I just think, like, right now Trump is spiraling out of control. And this is, I guess, in a little bit, this is the stove-touching conversation, which is, do you let Trump, they could try and then they could crystallize and make the fight about, again, Dems versus Republicans. Just nice, comfortable territory for them. Whereas right now, Trump is fighting with his own people. They are coming for him. They are abandoning him. I don't know why you get in the way of that, just as a strategic matter. And like only if you thought-

Speaker 2:
[54:51] Let's try to help the country.

Speaker 3:
[54:52] But if you definitely, that would be, you'd have to definitely think you could get a conviction to do it. You don't go into another impeachment without certainty that you get a conviction.

Speaker 1:
[55:00] Or this time, instead of Liz Cheney playing the role of Liz Cheney, you have Lauren Boebert and Thomas Massie. And it's like you go into it with a couple of MAGA on the committee. At least that's not nothing.

Speaker 2:
[55:15] All right. Well, we will see. Everybody hit like, hit subscribe. Go to thebulwark.com/events. Tickets are on sale for our swing through San Diego. Very classy city and Los Angeles coming up. Sarah, Tim, Sam, other fantastic people. We'll see you there.

Speaker 3:
[55:36] Bye.

Speaker 2:
[55:37] Bye.